Appraisal Institute Meeting Visible Value, Invisible Risk in Industrial & Multifamily by Mary Cummins

Appraisal Institute Northwestern Branch Meeting - Visible Value, Invisible Risk on Industrial & Multifamily. September 18, 2025 at Tamayo's restaurant

Notes from the meeting: Juan Huizar sells income properties in Long Beach, California. Rates are up, loans are due and banks want cash to cover equity positions because asset values are down. Many owners are selling their property instead of refinancing because values are down. Today five plus units must cash flow to get a loan. Banks will still allow four or less to not cash flow. There's been about a 19% loss in value over the last five years in five plus units. Many of those properties were heavily improved and rents increased yet values are still down. Landlords can no longer evict tenants for major repairs. Rent control is limiting income. Some buildings with soft first stories will need seismic work. Many are taking the opportunity to turn those parking spots into ADUs. Tariffs on Chinese imports are causing US companies to use warehouses in Mexico to hold the Chinese imports then ship them to the US from Mexico. Tariffs are hurting manufacturing businesses and related property values. 

Speakers: Juan Huizar, Gary Martinez

DESCRIPTION: This presentation explores how capital markets are rethinking the value of industrial properties, not just based on leases and rent rolls, but on hidden risks tied to tenant business models, tariffs, insurance costs, political pressure, and supply chain volatility. Through real-world examples and case studies, Gary Martinez, CCIM, SIOR, shares how today’s market is pricing the unseen, and why understanding these invisible risks is critical to understanding true value in 2025. A surprising 17% of all active multifamily properties are now selling for less than they did five years ago—even though many have undergone renovations, rents have increased, and overall asset performance has improved. In this data-driven presentation, we will unpack what’s driving this market correction and why it's creating a rare window of opportunity for investors and appraisers alike.

Juan Huizar, CCIM 

BIO: From the rugged terrain of La Victorina in Zacatecas, Mexico, to the thriving business landscape of Long Beach, California, Juan Huizar's journey epitomizes the resilience and determination that define the American Dream. Raised amidst the challenges of a remote village without modern amenities, Huizar's family embarked on a courageous quest for better opportunities in the United States. Enduring the perils of desert crossings, they settled in the fertile Central Valley, where all 10 members toiled in the fields, picking garlic to make ends meet.

Today, Juan Huizar, a Certified Commercial Investment Member (CCIM), stands as a testament to the power of ambition and hard work. With an ingenious video strategy, Juan has elevated himself from relative obscurity to a nationally recognized figure in the real estate industry. His YouTube channel serves as a beacon of knowledge, attracting a remarkable 48% of his leads and drawing attention from esteemed platforms such as CNN, JP Morgan, and Western Real Estate. The CCIM designation underscores Juan’s mastery in financial analysis, market insights, negotiation tactics, and investment strategies.

As the founder and principal of Sage Real Estate, a premier commercial brokerage headquartered in Long Beach, Juan Huizar is at the forefront of innovation and excellence. His firm boasts the highest ratings in the city and ranks among the top 1.5% of boutique brokerages nationwide. Over the past eight years, Juan has personally brokered transactions totaling over $300 million, a testament to his unwavering commitment to client success and satisfaction.

Gary Martinez, SIOR, CCIM 

BIO: Gary Martinez is a hardworking commercial real estate broker with 24 years of experience. He has successfully completed over 2,500 transactions, representing investors ranging from Fortune 100 companies to family-owned operations. His expertise includes investment analysis, maximizing cash flow, enhancing commercial property values, and identifying the right opportunities at the right time. While his primary focus is in Southern California, he has completed transactions nationwide.

Gary holds two of the most prestigious designations in commercial real estate—CCIM and SIOR. He is actively involved in the industry, serving as the current President of the SIOR Inland Empire & Orange County Chapter and a multi-time past President of SoCal CCIM. Additionally, he is a CCIM 102 Instructor, teaching Real Estate Market Analysis, and a board member for Cal State Fullerton’s Real Estate Association.

Beyond commercial real estate, Gary is deeply committed to community service. As the Chairman of the Board for The Whole Child, he played a key role in developing and launching The Whole Child’s Interim Housing Program in Santa Fe Springs. This transformative program provides a structured pathway for families to transition from homelessness to homeownership, reinforcing his dedication to creating lasting, positive change in the community.

A few slides.

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.

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Housing Statistics Los Angeles City, County and All TheMLS.com Last 12 Months by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

Statistics for all of themls.com which is LA City, LA County and many other cities combined. Closed, Sales Price, Months of Supply, Days on Market, Pending, Active for the last 12 months as of May 7, 2025 only for single family residences. This basically looks like normal seasonal activity. There are about three months of supply which is low, days on market decreasing, new listings increasing slightly, sales prices increasing, active listings increasing slightly. I did these stats because people in other areas were reporting more listings than normal, price drops, fewer closed sales, fewer pendings. That's not happening in Los Angeles overall but I have been noticing it in certain markets. 

Higher priced homes are taking longer to sell and have price cuts. Lower priced homes as usual selling more quickly. Condos aren't doing that well. Sales price decreases, price cuts, more time on the market. This is due to increased HOA dues due to increasing reserves, needed repairs and insurance costs. Interest rates and a general unease about the economy also affecting sales negatively. 

#themls #marycummins #realestateappraiser #losangeles #california This is the map area of TheMLS https://www.themls.com/vestamapareas/ CLAW MLS isn't as big as CRMLS but it's still a huge area. Just look at the number of listings at the top of each column in the charts below.

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.

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Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

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The History of Women in Real Estate by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

It's Women's History Month. Back in the day women weren't allowed to own real estate, get a home loan or even work in real estate. Today most residential real estate agents are women but men still dominate commercial real estate, construction and architecture. Men are also more likely to be single home owners. "You've come a long way, baby," but more progress will continue to be made.

I previously wrote about the history of Real Estate Boards and the first Multiple Listing Services. Women were excluded along with blacks, Latinos, Asians... Over time the Boards broadened their ranks after the US Civil Rights Acts and Fair Housing Act to include everyone including women. https://mary--cummins.blogspot.com/2024/01/history-of-us-boards-of-realtors-and.html  

A quick overview

Women in the U.S. were not allowed to finance real estate purchases without a husband or male co-signer until the 1970s.

While women dominate the ranks of Realtors, property managers and interior designers, they comprise less than 15% of the construction industry, and one-third of the mortgage brokerage industry.

Three secretaries of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development have been women.

Some statistics from today

65% of all Realtors are female

61.9% of property managers are female

14% of construction industry professionals are female

27% of architects are female

83% of interior designers are female

20% of homebuyers are single females

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https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/history-of-women-in-real-estate/

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.

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• Mary Cummins of Animal Advocates
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Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

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Palisades land sales and listings March 6, 2025. 50 listings, 2 sales by Mary Cummins real estate appraiser

Palisades land sales and listings. Still only the same two land sales. There are now 50 land listings which range in price from $749,000 to $6,900,000 from 3,700 sf to 3.1 acres. Ten are pending, under contract. This is from a land only search. I searched SFR and did not see any land sales in there. Looks like MLS is clamping down on land sales in SFR category. 

1		7	24-401413	15	U	17504 Castellammare Dr	Pacific Palisades	3,703	0.085	LAR1	$650,000		214
⁞⁞ 2		1	25497913	15	A	1309 Palisades Dr	Pacific Palisades	136,769	3.1398	LARD3	$749,000		0
⁞⁞ 3		6	SR25049419MR	15	A	17444 Castellammare	PACIFIC PALISADES	7,286	0	LAR1	$750,000		0
⁞⁞ 4		1	25498371	15	A	674 Palmera Ave	Pacific Palisades	4,567	0.1048	LAR1	$999,000		0
⁞⁞ 5		2	25507111	15	A	654 Jacon Way	Pacific Palisades	8,130	0.1866	LAR1	$999,000		1
⁞⁞ 6		1	25-481841	15	S	17126 Avenida De La Herradura	Pacific Palisades	9,932	0.228	LAR1	$999,000	$1,185,000	13
⁞⁞ 7		1	25502497	15	P	16879 Bollinger Dr	Pacific Palisades	6,903	0.1585	LAR1	$1,300,000		8
⁞⁞ 8		3	25505617	15	A	605 Erskine Dr	Pacific Palisades	4,587	0.1053	LAR1	$1,495,000		3
⁞⁞ 9		1	25501597	15	A	16751 Edgar St	Pacific Palisades	5,226	0.12	LAR1	$1,500,000		0
⁞⁞ 10		0	25502149	15	A	16769 Livorno Dr	Pacific Palisades	5,335	0.1225	LAR1	$1,500,000		0
⁞⁞ 11		1	25497551	15	P	16008 Miami Way	Pacific Palisades	5,745	0.1319	LAR1	$1,500,000		17
⁞⁞ 12		9	25506291	15	A	16544 Akron St	Pacific Palisades	7,352	0.1688	LAR1	$1,600,000		1	1
⁞⁞ 13		1	25507805	15	A	611 Erskine Dr	Pacific Palisades	5,214	0.1197	LAR1	$1,649,000		0
⁞⁞ 14		1	25498749	15	U	723 Radcliffe Ave	Pacific Palisades	6,973	0.1601	LAR1	$1,695,000		0
⁞⁞ 15		3	25499679	15	A	851 Haverford Ave	Pacific Palisades	5,199	0.1193	LAR2	$1,900,000		0
⁞⁞ 16		4	25502891	15	A	930 Embury St	Pacific Palisades	5,200	0.1194	LAR1	$1,980,000		0
⁞⁞ 17		2	RS25037268MR	15	A	16863 W Sunset BLVD	PACIFIC PALISADES	7,204	0	LAR1	$1,980,000		12
⁞⁞ 18		2	25506997	15	A	545 Swarthmore Ave	Pacific Palisades	4,995	0.1147	LAR1	$2,100,000		1
⁞⁞ 19		1	25504987	15	A	16517 Las Casas Pl	Pacific Palisades	9,835	0.2258	LAR1	$2,200,000		6
⁞⁞ 20		15	25499029	15	A	16650 Linda Ter	Pacific Palisades	7,493	0.172	LAR1	$2,295,000		19
⁞⁞ 21		12	CV25036108MR	15	A	16735 Marquez TER	PACIFIC PALISADES	7,244	0	LAR1	$2,299,000		15
⁞⁞ 22		5	25503455	15	A	677 N Swarthmore Ave	Pacific Palisades	6,000	0.1344	LAR1	$2,420,000		0
⁞⁞ 23		3	25505821	15	A	14800 W Sunset Blvd	Pacific Palisades	7,755	0.178	LAR1	$2,495,000		1
⁞⁞ 24		2	25505053	15	A	14940 Mc Kendree Ave	Pacific Palisades	7,010	0.1604	LAR1	$2,495,000		3
⁞⁞ 25		5	25505687	15	A	14840 W Sunset Blvd	Pacific Palisades	6,900	0.1584	LAR1	$2,500,000		2
⁞⁞ 26		5	25499459	15	U	16605 Merrivale Ln	Pacific Palisades	12,523	0.2875	LAR1	$2,500,000		17
⁞⁞ 27		1	25500471	15	A	850 Hartzell St	Pacific Palisades	7,803	0.1791	LAR1	$2,600,000		0
⁞⁞ 28		3	25500695	15	A	15103 Albright St	Pacific Palisades	7,475		R1V1	$2,695,000		0	1
⁞⁞ 29		4	25507375	15	CS	743 Haverford Ave	Pacific Palisades	6,000	0.1377	R1V1	$2,750,000		0
⁞⁞ 30		3	25499791	15	A	15007 Mc Kendree Ave	Pacific Palisades	7,790	0.1786	LAR1	$2,795,000		0
⁞⁞ 31		1	25495949	15	S	14800 Mc Kendree Ave	Pacific Palisades	7,692	0.1766	LAR1	$2,895,000	$3,100,000	6
⁞⁞ 32		3	25497809	15	A	1159 Monument St	Pacific Palisades	7,730	0.1775	LAR1	$2,950,000		0
⁞⁞ 33		1	25500561	15	U	14912 Mc Kendree Ave	Pacific Palisades	8,439	0.1937	LAR1	$2,950,000		0
⁞⁞ 34		10	25505545	15	A	1299 Chautauqua Blvd	Pacific Palisades	9,045	0.2076	LAR1	$2,950,000		3
⁞⁞ 35		1	25501231	15	U	14902 Mc Kendree Ave	Pacific Palisades	9,430	0.2009	LAR1	$2,975,000		13
⁞⁞ 36		5	25498829	15	A	566 N Tahquitz Pl	Pacific Palisades	8,087	0.1856	LAR1	$2,980,000		0
⁞⁞ 37		3	25504757	15	A	1156 Galloway St	Pacific Palisades	6,502	0.1493	LAR1	$3,000,000		6
⁞⁞ 38		3	25501809	15	A	926 Kagawa St	Pacific Palisades	7,503	0.1722	LAR1	$3,198,000		0	6
⁞⁞ 39		4	25499357	15	U	15432 Albright St	Pacific Palisades	17,440	0.4004	LAR1	$3,250,000		0
⁞⁞ 40		15	25501453	15	U	514 Via De La Paz	Pacific Palisades	7,498	0.1722	LAR1	$3,295,000		13
⁞⁞ 41		30	25505853	15	A	17757 Tramonto Dr	Pacific Palisades	6,480	0.1488	LAR1	$3,495,000		2
⁞⁞ 42		3	25504759	15	A	15257 De Pauw St	Pacific Palisades	7,503	0.1722	LAR1	$3,500,000		6
⁞⁞ 43		3	25504481	15	A	14601 Drummond St	Pacific Palisades	7,147	0.1641	LAR1	$3,750,000		7
⁞⁞ 44		1	25502779	15	A	1015 Galloway St	Pacific Palisades	7,799	0.179	LAR1	$3,900,000		0
⁞⁞ 45		5	25501107	15	U	611 Ocampo Dr	Pacific Palisades	8,163	0.1874	LAR1	$3,950,000		14
⁞⁞ 46		2	25502597	15	A	614 Alma Real Dr	Pacific Palisades	9,700	0.2284	LAR1	$4,750,000		5
⁞⁞ 47		2	LG25042516MR	15	A	635 Ocampo DR	PACIFIC PALISADES	8,209	0	LAR1	$4,925,000		8
⁞⁞ 48		1	25507331	15	A	630 Frontera Dr	Pacific Palisades	12,098	0.2777	LAR1	$5,950,000		0
⁞⁞ 49		5	25504847	15	A	15907 Asilomar Blvd	Pacific Palisades	7,929	0.182	LAR1	$5,995,000		6
⁞⁞ 50		5	25500391	15	A	620 N Marquette St	Pacific Palisades	64,396	1.48	LAR1	$6,995,000		0

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.

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Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

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