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| donald trump, project 2025, mary cummins, housing, real estate industry, real estate appraiser, real estate appraisal, waiver, hud, |
What is President elect Donald Trump's plan for the housing industry and specifically real estate appraisers? A look at Project 2025 the Presidential Transition Project can give us some clues. Chapter 15 Department of Housing and Urban Development written by ex HUD head Ben Carson can give us a glimpse into the new administration's mindset. The plan actually mentioned real estate appraisals. I will only touch on a few of the programs.
1. "Immediately end the Biden Administration’s Property Appraisal and Valuation Equity (PAVE) policies and reverse any Biden Administration actions that threaten to undermine the integrity of real estate appraisals. Footnote: At a minimum, these efforts duplicate what the federal government already collects and assesses; at worst, they institute arbitrary procedures in real estate appraisal practices that undermine integrity and perversely introduce arbitrary biases into what should be an unbiased system for determining financial value."
The PAVE taskforce actually didn't really accomplish anything except furthering the false narrative of the "old white racist male" real estate appraiser. We already had mandatory bias, discrimination, ethics classes which covered fair housing. We already had appraisal appeals aka Reconsideration of Value (ROV). People could always file complaints. The point of the PAVE taskforce was to keep a campaign promise to "fight" falsely alleged "appraisal bias" against POC. Biden created a nonexistent problem so he could say he fixed it so he could get POC votes. Independent research by AEI based on government data proved no such bias, discrimination exists. There really isn't anything to roll back as the task force didn't really do anything new so no big deal here.
I do hope that it will stop the HUD grants to NFHA which pays for false and defamatory ads in media attacking real estate appraisers. That's a huge waste of money to "fight" a problem that doesn't exist. The purpose of the ads is to recruit fake clients for NFHA so they can sue appraisers for no money settlements. Sometimes they get a few pennies from the AMC and lenders which I feel is press related extortion and blackmail. I wish appraisers could collectively sue HUD, NFHA for these defamatory actions. The hate and racism towards real estate appraisers is off the charts. The false narrative has caused false complaints and fake lawsuits besides death threats and racist name calling.
2. "Repeal climate change initiatives and spending in the department’s budget request. Footnote: Revise regulatory and subregulatory guidance, where applicable within statutory authorities, that adds unnecessary delay and costs to the construction and development of new housing and has been estimated to account for about 40 percent of new housing unit costs in multifamily housing."
I assume they would roll back the Inflation Reduction Act. It's true that the act adds a few thousand dollars to new home construction and final costs to the buyer. The clean energy initiatives do save the buyers/owners money over time. It's also good for the local clean energy industry and home values besides of course the environment. Most clean energy programs use domestic labor and supplies except maybe some solar panels so it's good for part of the local economy.
Team Trump thinks this will save consumers money and bring down housing costs. It won't but it will provide more profits for developers. They will not be trickling down the savings to consumers. Prices will stay the same but homes won't be as energy efficient.
All that said we do need to roll back some building restrictions. They increase housing costs and are the main reason we don't have enough housing. Just building more housing more easily, quickly and less expensively would help the housing crisis immensely. We just need more homes of all types. Because home and land prices have skyrocketed because of lack of sufficient housing it's almost impossible to build affordable housing. This is the direct result of government mandates and restrictions even though people love to blame "greedy" developers. They think developers should not only work for free but they should lose millions on each project for the life of the building.
We could also use some help with zoning. Developers should be able to build some 2-4 units in some single family housing areas with restrictions. Some of these 2-4 units look just like SFRs. We need more than just super expensive ADUs. We could use some 5-8 units in 2-4 zones.
There needs to be some automatic approvals of some standard construction projects. NIMBYs have stopped most new construction just by filing complaints. This can cause projects to take up to ten years before they can even break ground. The developer has to pay for the holding cost of the project while these issues are processed. They are generally resolved by developer giving complaining neighbors land, money, and infrastructure. They are also resolved by developers giving politicians land, money, infrastructure and "favors." Developers also acquiesce to building fewer units which is the opposite of what we need.
Trump's plan for tariffs will of course increase construction costs for building supplies. Homes are already too expensive. Deportation of construction workers will cause construction costs for labor to increase dramatically. I hope he doesn't go through with these promises. I hope Trump's wealthy real estate friends talk him out of it but it didn't help tariffs during his first term.
Trump has no control over the Fed rate so he can't reduce interest rates. If anything, his tariffs will increase inflation causing rates to stay the same or even go up. The tariff caused inflation could tip us into a recession.
Isaac Peck of WorkingRE just wrote a good article about Donald Trump's plan for the housing industry. He didn't go into interest rates, tariffs or mass deportations. He did touch on appraisal waivers, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CFPB, PAVE taskforce, housing... on https://www.workingre.com/now-what-on-a-new-trump-administration
It will be interesting to see what the new administration will actually do for housing and real estate appraisers. I'm hoping some of his promises were just campaign rhetoric. Tariffs and deportations are such a bad idea for the real estate industry, economy and nation as a whole.
While I didn't think Kamala Harris' housing plan was that great at least it wouldn't have made things much worse. Trump's plans will make things much worse. Trump's plan for the economy and nation as a whole are much, much worse. I really hope Trump doesn't actually interfere with actual fair housing. This is why I voted for Kamala Harris but will have to deal with the Trump administration for the next four years.
Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.
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