Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Animal Advocates, Los Angeles, California

Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Animal Advocates, Los Angeles, California
Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Animal Advocates, Los Angeles, California

Thursday, January 30, 2020

What is The One 100,000 sf home by Nile Niami at 944 Airole Way, Bel Air, California 90077 by Mary Cummins

The One, Nile Niami 944 Airole Way Los Angeles CA 90077 bel air, holmby hills, mary cummins, real estate, real estate appraiser, california, mega mansion, $500,000,000 price, crazy

UPDATE: September 2021. Home is in receivership with more than $165,000,000 liens, debts and judgments. It will hopefully get an occupancy permit then be listed for sale. It could be sold without an occupancy permit but of course it'd be at a huge discount and someone would have to pay cash. 


I don't know if Niles Niami really really expected to build and sell this home or if this was a real estate scam from the start like The Vineyard aka The Mountain. We'll find out when they check the books. 

UPDATE: March 2021 home  in default. Price reduced. A few of Niles Niami's projects have been in default, had prices reduced. 


ORIGINAL: The property goes by a few addresses. They are main address is 944 N Airole Way and then 937 N Stradella Road and 951 N Stradella Road. The parcel map below shows the property outlined in red. It's zoned LARE20 which is the city of Los Angeles residential estate. It's approximately 166,828 sf or 3.8 acres. It last sold 12/2012 for $28,000,000. It's had repeat lis pendens on it for mechanic liens i.e., unpaid contractors. It's had loans on the property up to $82,000,000. I think one reason the owner throws around the crazy price is to get media coverage and to get insane loans on the property. It's listed as vacant land so I don't think there is an occupancy permit. Sounds like the guy needs to sell it now. Whoever buys it will have to pay property tax in the amount of 1 1/4% of value per year. The original value is the sale price. 

The owner is Nile Niami born February 1968 in Los Angeles County, California, Crestlloyd LLC 8981 W Sunset Blvd #303, West Hollywood, CA 90069. I see a Nameer N Niami born 25 Feb 1968 with mother's maiden name Larkin. He also goes by Nile and Neil. His father is Hazim Mohammed Niami born 1932 in Baghdad, Iraq, a civil engineer who designed the Cinerama Dome. His parents divorced when he was six.

The APN of the property is 4369-026-021/020. I see soils and geological permits denied in 2017 and 2018. One was finalized very recently for grading.

I just found permits You have to search by legal description tract 22727 lots 1, 2, 3 and use APNs 4369-026-014/017/002. I think he's trying to obfuscate the property identification so people can't tell it's not as large as he's said it is and it has no occupancy permit. This is very common with these mega-mansions. It makes it difficult to evaluate unless you're an appraiser.

2014 they demolished existing home. 2014 permit to build new one story accessory building. 2017 permit to build new guard house. 2017 permit to build basement for servants. I see five almost dormitory like bedrooms, see below. Generally developers add a basement to be allowed to build more. They generally turn basement into another living level by digging out the sides so it's open. This is how sneaky developers can build more than legally allowed or approved. They can't include the basement area as a living area.

I see they will build two stories over a basement with five car garage. It says 333' x 333' floor area 44,440 sf, total floor area 73,934 sf. Still not 100,000 sf. Residential floor area is 44,440 sf. Again, not 100,000 sf. See below for how they measure the building. It's misleading.

They have to install on site fire hydrant. It looks like they can build max residential living 48,291 sf.

Below is the basic permit so people can read it for themselves.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BtiJ8xcmEXd2oQixNNEE51qoJKvVGm5e/view?usp=sharing

There is a $82,500,000 construction loan with Hankey Capital LLC, a $30,188,235 other loan with Yogi Securities Holdings. With no occupancy permit this will be difficult to sell at the moment. He will have to sell it for a bit less than $500,000,000. 

The One, Nile Niami 944 Airole Way Los Angeles CA 90077 bel air, holmby hills, mary cummins, real estate, real estate appraiser, california, mega mansion, $500,000,000 price, crazy

If you want to find docs in Los Angeles building and safety you need to search the APN. I see permits only for proposed site stabilization in response to an order to comply due to over steep lot. They have to install soil nails, anchors to hold in place netting for soils and engineering. Nile Niami signed this in 2014 saying he's an owner, builder. There are two permit application numbers 19020-10000-01428 and 19030-10000-03130. I see a 2018 permit for a new entry gate. See below for documents submitted by the owner. These are public documents. I did not hack their plans. I don't see any building permits for a home. I used all three addresses and the APN. Maybe there's a reason why we only see computer graphic drawings of this home. Per building and safety it doesn't yet exist. I think he just built the retaining walls and put in some landscaping. He can say it has 1,000,000 sf because it doesn't matter as I see no home permits.

Here are a few more ID numbers, names.  Parcel ID # PIN # is 144B149 302, APN 4369-026-021, county map red # MB 623-81/83, legal is tr 22727 lot 2. There is a permit for a retaining wall. That's all I see.

Below are the people working on the project:
David R Salter License C69911
Joshua Rafael Feffer License EG2138
Steven Jeffrey Cox License C48940

If you look at the pics the developer provides to media and others, they are mainly computer generated images. They aren't photos. That's because the property is far from ready to be shown. It's not even finished. Below are some recent satellite image pics from Google Pro Earth. Click to see larger. The slope of the land is over steep over 2:1 ratio so they had to reinforce the site. The reason for the slope is so they could build as much as possible.

The One, Nile Niami 944 Airole Way Los Angeles CA 90077 bel air, holmby hills, mary cummins, real estate, real estate appraiser, california, mega mansion, $500,000,000 price, crazy


The One, Nile Niami 944 Airole Way Los Angeles CA 90077 bel air, holmby hills, mary cummins, real estate, real estate appraiser, california, mega mansion, $500,000,000 price, crazy


The One, Nile Niami 944 Airole Way Los Angeles CA 90077 bel air, holmby hills, mary cummins, real estate, real estate appraiser, california, mega mansion, $500,000,000 price, crazy


The One, Nile Niami 944 Airole Way Los Angeles CA 90077 bel air, holmby hills, mary cummins, real estate, real estate appraiser, california, mega mansion, $500,000,000 price, crazy


The One, Nile Niami 944 Airole Way Los Angeles CA 90077 bel air, holmby hills, mary cummins, real estate, real estate appraiser, california, mega mansion, $500,000,000 price, crazy


The One, Nile Niami 944 Airole Way Los Angeles CA 90077 bel air, holmby hills, mary cummins, real estate, real estate appraiser, california, mega mansion, $500,000,000 price, crazy


The One, Nile Niami 944 Airole Way Los Angeles CA 90077 bel air, holmby hills, mary cummins, real estate, real estate appraiser, california, mega mansion, $500,000,000 price, crazy


The site is in an earthquake induced landslide zone, hillside ordinance, hillside grading. Thomas Guide map TG592A6 for you old folks.

The One, Nile Niami 944 Airole Way Los Angeles CA 90077 bel air, holmby hills, mary cummins, real estate, real estate appraiser, california, mega mansion, $500,000,000 price, crazy


The One, Nile Niami 944 Airole Way Los Angeles CA 90077 bel air, holmby hills, mary cummins, real estate, real estate appraiser, california, mega mansion, $500,000,000 price, crazy


The One, Nile Niami 944 Airole Way Los Angeles CA 90077 bel air, holmby hills, mary cummins, real estate, real estate appraiser, california, mega mansion, $500,000,000 price, crazy

Below is the plan for the basement.

The One, Nile Niami 944 Airole Way Los Angeles CA 90077 bel air, holmby hills, mary cummins, real estate, real estate appraiser, california, mega mansion, $500,000,000 price, crazy

 Below is the plan for the main house. Seems there was a home, pool and tennis court on the property originally. He didn't tear it all down.


The One, Nile Niami 944 Airole Way Los Angeles CA 90077 bel air, holmby hills, mary cummins, real estate, real estate appraiser, california, mega mansion, $500,000,000 price, crazy



A map to the home is below. Address is approximately 944 Airole Way, Los Angeles, California 90077. The owner is Nile Niami. You can click "directions" below to get directions.



Mary Cummins of Animal Advocates is a wildlife rehabilitator licensed by the California Department of Fish and GameMary Cummins is also a licensed real estate appraiser in Los Angeles, California.


Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

Friday, January 10, 2020

Construction process, costs today are exponentially higher than 1900's, 1950's - Mary Cummins

Real estate construction costs, rising, permits, survey, architect, land costs, labor, materials, utilities, mary cummins, real estate, appraiser, appraisal, Los Angeles, California
Many people today have no idea how much it costs to build a new housing unit. Some are aghast at the $500K/unit estimate given to build housing units for the homeless or anyone. People also have no idea how long and difficult the process is today. Back in 1900 all you had to do at most was submit a two page form to the city and pay for the permits. You didn't need an architect, survey, soils, geological, engineer or even a drawing. You didn't need approval from your neighbors, other city departments, historical overlay zone committee members, building and safety, zoning and planning, dept of transportation... The cost today to build a unit is easily 100x what it was back in the day. It's also exponentially more difficult today. Today because there is no vacant land you have to demolish an existing structure and pay millions for the land. Then you have to deal with even more agencies and people. This article should explain some of the changes and challenges we face today.

Below is a complex building permit application which was approved. It's a two story 1906 very good quality home in Los Angeles. It cost $3,000 to build about 3,000 sf or $1/sf. This included everything for this high quality home. This was very, very expensive in 1906. This home exists today.



This home was built in a more rural area of Los Angeles in 1934. 672 sf for $1,000 or $1.40/sf. Look at this form. No architect, engineer, contractor. You could built it yourself. You didn't need a licensed contractor, plumber, electrician. There were no building and safety regulations or planning and zoning and no inspections. You want to build a house or school right next to a liquor store, highway, industrial plant? Okay.


This home was built in 1952. Again, no architect, engineer but there's a contractor because this person doesn't want to build it himself. Can you imagine no building and safety regulations? This time there is a little sketch. 2,200 sf built for $8,300 or $3.77/sf. That's it.

Below is the budget for a four-plex in the city of Los Angeles. This is the actual budget. Again, not my client. They paid $1.1M to buy a tear down home on an R2 lot. It cost $2,000,000 to build four units or $500,000 per unit. This developer is highly experienced. This soon to be property is in a not so good area of Los Angeles. This doesn't include a lot of other costs such as selling commission, transfer fees, property taxes...if they sell it. These people hold property and don't sell it. They'd have to sell over $2,000,000 to make a profit. We appraisers figure in a 20% profit so they would most likely sell it for $2,400,000 which seems about right based on the area. These are not luxury units. They are bare bones basic minimum requirement units. They're built dormitory style as if for students.



Cut to the chase today, 2020. It easily costs $175/sf to build an average low quality home. The amount of paperwork involved would be at least 3-5 feet tall not including plans and surveys. This cost doesn't include architect, survey, engineer, geo, soils, grading, utility hookups, appliances, finishes... It also doesn't include time, effort and money getting approvals from building and safety, planning and zoning, neighbors, NIMBYs, neighborhood lobbyists/extortionists, HPOZ Committee, transportation... It doesn't include mortgage payments, insurance during pre-contruction and during construction. It doesn't consider that you can only choose a piece of property with a very specific zoning in a very specific area. It can easily take two years from permit application to breaking ground. That's two years of holding costs just to do nothing. After you break ground it could take another year to have building and safety inspect the electrical, plumbing, mechanical... elements of your home so you can continue to the next step. It could take up to two more years getting a Certificate of Occupancy. All of these things take a lot of time and money.

This is why Mayor Eric Garcetti can fund a housing a project and not have a grand opening for at least two to five years. I was on the Prop F Committee to build the new animal shelters and fire stations. I've gone through the process over years with the City Committee. They actually did a really good job staying on top of things even when issues arose. Still, it took years and wasn't cheap.

The high cost of land, construction materials/labor, excessive red tape, NIMBYs dragging out the costly process is why we have a housing crisis. This is why we need housing for homeless, low income and even low middle class people today. Because of all the obstacles to building new units not enough units have been built over the past 30-40 years which is why rents are so high. It's a basic supply and demand issue. Rent control made the situation worse as landlords left the rental market and few new units could be built.

Some say "developers are just greedy." No, they're not. They're developers. Their goal is to build a project and make money. As an appraiser we figure in 20% developer profit. Many times they don't make 20%. They can end up losing their entire investment because building projects is extremely risky. Other people sell cars, clothing, medical services. They also expect to make a profit. It's just economics.

I've offered many solutions to these problems in my many articles about the housing crisis and solutions. The main solution is to limit NIMBY's power to stop projects. Some cookie cutter 2-8 unit projects should be automatically approved and need no further approvals from neighbors or NIMBYs. I just wrote this quick article so people can see how much it costs and how difficult it is today to build housing. People are yelling at Mayor Eric Garcetti like he is intentionally stalling on building new housing. He is doing everything in his power to build new units. He is stymied by NIMBYs.

Recently there was a project to build 250 units on vacant land with units for homeless, very low income, low income and market rent units. People fought it because they wanted more units for very low income. This was a private developer offering to build low income units when there is no law that states he must build super low income. NIMBYs  killed the project. A low income housing unit in the hand is better than two in the bush. NIMBYs are one of the biggest causes of the housing crisis.They have a place to live so eff everyone else.

FYI I have nothing to do with any of the homes listed above which is why I used them. I have never appraised, inspected, sold them. I just pulled some random buildings of specific ages.

Mary Cummins of Animal Advocates is a wildlife rehabilitator licensed by the
Mary Cummins of Animal Advocates is a wildlife rehabilitator licensed by the California Department of Fish and Game and the USDA. Mary Cummins is also a licensed real estate appraiser in Los Angeles, California.


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