Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Real Estate Appraisal, Los Angeles, California, Mary Cummins.

Mary Cummins is a real estate appraiser in Los Angeles, California with 38+ years of experience. Cummins provides real estate appraisals for banks, lenders, mortgage brokers, Appraisal Management Companies (AMCs), lawyers, Courts, factors and private parties for lending, lawsuits, probate, estate planning, divorce and all types of litigation. Cummins provides 1004, 1073, 1025 and other form reports, narrative reports and historical appraisals besides real estate research and appraisal advice.

Showing posts with label fema. Show all posts

Saturday, July 5, 2025

Cause of Camp Mystic Flooding is Poor Texas Zoning Building Regulations by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

UPDATE: A day and a half after I wrote my article CNN wrote an almost identical article using my exact same quotes. https://www.yahoo.com/news/children-camps-texas-were-located-060024551.html

ORIGINAL: July 5, 2025 intense rain and flooding at Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas caused loss of life and missing campers. Everyone is blaming someone else but there is one main cause of this tragedy. The main reason is the camp was built in a high risk flood zone on the banks of the Guadalupe river in a floodplain.

The camp is built in high risk flood zone A, see map above and below. Here is the address, Camp Mystic 186 Felix Fisher Rd S, Hunt, TX 78024 GPS 30.00485531885247, -99.37327619243185. Camp Mystic itself states on their website they're built on the banks of Guadalupe river, "Established in 1926, Mystic is nestled among cypress, live oak, and pecan trees in the hill country of west-central Texas on the banks of the beautiful Guadalupe River." https://www.campmystic.com/ It looks like the cabins are built right next to Cypress Creek which is an offshoot of the South Fork of Guadalupe river. The major flooding took place as campers were asleep in bed. There actually were rain and flood warnings. Linked below is the flood map for the area. The red star is the cabins. The younger girls who died were staying in the cabins closest to the water. I believe the camp owner should have evacuated the campers after the initial flood warnings the day before knowing they're in a high risk flood zone. Link to the actual FEMA map https://hazards-fema.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=8b0adb51996444d4879338b5529aa9cd

Better view of the cabins in Flood zone A. You see the cabins inside the flood zone. The flood map is 48265C0450F date 03/03/2011. One should never build cabins on the banks of a river in a high risk flood zone and floodplain. They probably built the camp there because the land was cheap because it was in a flood zone. While we didn't have FEMA flood maps back in 1926 people knew which areas flooded. You could tell based on proximity to body of water, terrain and soil.

Some of the cabins are right on the creek. They even built a dam like structure on the creek. Were those built with permits? Texas is pretty lax with permits so rhetorical question.

This is the definition of high risk flood zone A, "high risk of flooding, specifically a 1% annual chance of experiencing a flood event, also known as the 100-year floodplain. These areas are designated as Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA) due to their proximity to bodies of water like rivers, lakes, and ponds." Generally you would not build a living quarter in this area. If you do, it must be mitigated which generally means raising it off the ground on a strong foundation above the BFE. "Structures in Zone A must adhere to specific building standards, such as elevating the lowest floor to or above the BFE and ensuring enclosed areas below the BFE are not used as living spaces, according to the American Society of Civil Engineers." This is a 1926 camp. I doubt it was up to flood code. The water level went six feet up inside the cabins based on the photos. They were clearly not built above the BFE. Generally you would have pier or stilt foundations so the water can flow under the buildings. I don't see any of these types of foundations in the camp.

This is the building code for flood zones in Kerr County. "A floodplain determination or permit is required for any work in the floodplain." "In Kerr County, Texas, building in Flood Zone A requires adhering to specific regulations outlined in the Kerr County Flood Damage Prevention Order. These regulations, administered by the Kerr County Engineer, aim to minimize flood damage. Generally, new construction and substantial improvements in Zone A must elevate the lowest floor (including basements) to or above the base flood elevation plus one foot, or the highest adjacent grade plus two feet if no specific depth is provided." Based on this the cabins weren't built to current code. I doubt they were 1926 original because the area had previously flooded.

Texas is known to be very lax with zoning especially when it comes to flood zones. They allow building in aqueducts, flood plains and high risk flood zones. This is a Christian religious camps so Texas probably made even more exceptions because of religion. I've previously written articles about this especially after Hurricane Harvey. This is why people are flooded over and over again and FEMA keeps paying them over and over again to rebuild. FEMA will be gone by next year so Texas needs to make some changes. Texas is lucky it has a good relationship with Trump and he agreed to declare it a disaster zone and offer assistance.

In 1987 and 1998 the Guadalupe river flooded. In the 1987 Guadalupe River flood ten teenagers drowned when trying to leave a church camp. Camp Mystic is a religious Christian camp. Perhaps the girls were swept away while fleeing the cabins. Some of the cabins are still standing though they were flooded inside with up to six feet of water. I just saw a photo of girls in pajamas walking through flood water in the middle of the night toward a building on higher ground away from the creek and river. It only takes a few inches of flood water to knock someone off their feet into the water. Maybe that is what happened to those fleeing through higher water.

Below is a chart of the water quickly rising. The water allegedly rose 20 feet in 37 minutes in the middle of the night. This happens in this area because of steep terrain, dry soil which can't soak up water and rivers and creeks flowing into each other. Texas Hill Country is also known as flash flood alley for this reason. Great article with quotes from a hydrologist. This is the last place you'd want to camp over night. https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-texas-hill-country-where-160717909.html

Below are photos of the cabins and cabin locations. Clearly not elevated enough. They are literally built on the bank of the river. They are built on the S part of the river and creek which is not a good idea. This area looks like a floodplain. The river banks are formed by the power of the water in the river. That means that area has most likely flooded in the past. The cabins were indeed flooded and buildings were damaged. Such a sad tragedy. In California areas that tend to flood may be used for recreation. They still don't allow overnight lodging for this reason. You can hike and have a picnic but you can't put up a tent or stay over night for this reason. Meanwhile Texas allows overnight lodging in flood zones.

This image which is from a Texas flood website illustrates floodplains and river banks. The entire floodplain area can flood. All buildings should be built above the BFE.

Below is a Google map of Camp Mystic

In case their website is still down https://web.archive.org/web/20250124220815/https://www.campmystic.com/

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.

Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

DISCLAIMER: https://mary--cummins.blogspot.com/p/disclaimer-privacy-policy-for-blogs-by.html

Mary Cummins

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate Services has been in real estate since 1983, over 35 years. She is licensed by the Bureau of Real Estate Appraisers. Mary Cummins was an agent and broker licensed with the California Department of Real Estate selling residential income, commercial buildings, raw land and homes for Merrill Lynch Realty in Beverly Hills and Westside Properties in Los Angeles before concentrating on appraisals. Mary Cummins currently provides real estate appraisals, expert witness testimony, historical research, legal real estate research for mortgage brokers, banks, lawyers, factors, insurance companies, financial consultants and private individuals. Mary Cummins was born and raised in Southern California. Cummins attended Beverly Hills Good Shepherd Catholic School and Beverly Hills High School. Besides being on the Dean's list, Mary Cummins was a top ten national swimmer and competed on the men's water polo team. Mary Cummins began college at the age of 15 attending the University of Southern California on scholarship, majoring in Psychology/Sociology. http://www.animaladvocates.us http://www.facebook.com/AnimalAdvocatesUSA

Sunday, May 4, 2025

Study Shows High Levels of Lead, Arsenic, Mercury Post Los Angeles Fires by Mary Cummins

High levels of lead, arsenic and mercury have been found in the soil after post fire soil removal in Los Angeles, California. Previously FEMA and USACE would remove six inches of topsoil, test then remove more if the tests revealed toxic materials. After the January 2025 Los Angeles fires they decided to only remove the top six inches and not test. That's when the LA Times sent out their researchers to test the soil. They found toxic materials in fully destroyed and nearby intact properties. This is why I've been telling people to do their own testing.

https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2025-05-04/the-government-wont-test-soil-on-properties-burned-in-the-la-fires-so-we-did-it-ourselves

"In the wake of the recent L.A. area fires, federal officials have broken with their decades-long tradition of testing soil to determine whether and when it is safe for people to come home.

The federal agencies typically tasked with this work — the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers — decided not to conduct comprehensive soil testing, stating that removing 6 inches of topsoil from properties that burned in the fires is enough to meet health-based cleanup goals.

An investigation by The Times uncovers government failures to ensure comprehensive cleanup of fire-related contamination in Altadena and Pacific Palisades left toxic substances buried in the soil of L.A.’s burn zones.

Times reporters conducted soil testing on 40 properties across both the Altadena and Pacific Palisades burn zones. The testing followed strict protocol with samples carefully collected, stored and transported to a state-certified lab in Fresno to be analyzed for 17 toxic metals.

The results confirm that some properties deemed safe are in fact still contaminated: Two of 10 properties remediated by the Army Corps in the Eaton fire burn area are still imbued with heavy metals above California’s health protective standards, the results show.

The Times’ tests also revealed elevated levels of arsenic, lead and mercury in the yards of three homes out of 10 homes that survived the Eaton fire.

The findings underscore the risk lurking just beneath the surface for nearly all residents in California — and for millions of Americans who will rely on future federal support in the wake of worsening climate disasters."

DISCLAIMER: https://mary--cummins.blogspot.com/p/disclaimer-privacy-policy-for-blogs-by.html

Mary Cummins

Thursday, September 3, 2020

Catastrophic Disaster Area Inspection Report CDAIR, DAIR, 1004D real estate appraisal form, sample by Mary Cummins

disaster inspection report, disaster certification, report, fema, 1004d, dair, cdair, form, mary cummins, real estate, uad, los angeles, california, wildfire, flood, hurricane, earthquake, tornado, appraisal update and/or completion report, catastrophic disaster area inspection report, disaster area inspection report

After every natural disaster such as wildfire, hurricane, flood, tornado, earthquake ... homes that are in the process of getting a loan must be reinspected if they are anywhere near the disaster area. The purpose is to make sure the homes still exist and were not damaged, destroyed or affected by the natural disaster.

Appraisers can use the DAIR (Disaster Area Inspection Report), CDAIR (Catastrophic Disaster Area Inspection Report) or the 1004D form report. Some clients insist on the1004D form report i.e. "Appraisal Update and/or Completion Report" (Fannie Mae 1004D, Freddie Mac 442). Filling it out normally is pretty straight forward. Sometimes the original appraiser is too busy to reinspect the property. In that situation another appraiser is hired to inspect the property. They generally charge $150 or so to inspect the property and take photos from the street.

Below is a sample disaster inspection report, certification report that I have used when they insist on the 1004D form and when I'm not the original appraiser. I use the basic 1004D form then add an addendum, other form, photos (generally only front and street though they may request interior), copy of my license and my insurance.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vKETg6rL-UikriWlrNAy6UIKofiiSfAu/view?usp=sharing

Below is the actual text I put in the first page of the form in the Summary Appraisal Update Report" section.

"Post Disaster Inspection Report. Current appraiser has no knowledge of previous appraisal. See attached Property Condition Report and photo page for observed information about the property."

Below is the actual text I put in the first page of the form in the "Certificate of Completion" section. Don't check either box because neither apply. The important text is on the next page.

"This section does not apply. See addendum."

Below is sample text I add in the addendum. All of this is in the form above.

"1004D Disaster Certification

Property Condition Report

FEMA Declaration

California Bobcat Fire (FM-5374-CA) PA-B PA-H Los Angeles County

https://www.fema.gov/disaster/5374

https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/7152/

Appraiser inspected subject property (date) at 12:00 pm. Subject is over 15 miles south west of the location of the Bobcat fire. The location of the Bobcat fire was 34° 14' 27.6? N, 117° 52' 4.8? W. The Bobcat fire started September 6, 2020 and was fully contained December 18, 2020. Subject structure, neighborhood, supporting facilities, transportation systems were not affected in any way by the Bobcat fire."

Some say the use the CDAIR form by itself which is made specifically for disaster inspections. Here are the CDAIR and DAIR forms in one file. The CDAIR is three pages and DAIR is one page. If the client insists on the 1004D form, you can add the CDAIR or DAIR to the 1004D. You could even do the report on a blank piece of paper if you add the proper text and data needed. The forms make it much easier and standardized for underwriters, lenders and others to view. I added this because some appraisers say they only use the CDAIR or DAIR form. Laws vary by state and type of loan.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Wz8sJV3JQpTKQTO-ZT_F5VnWUkH7IW2a/view?usp=sharing

Here's a jpg of the first page.

Second page is photos. Here is the third page.

Here is the one page DAIR report.

Obviously if the home has been damaged, destroyed or negatively affected, don't order the report because it won't pass and you'll waste $150. You'll need to repair the property first if possible. Sometimes your property may be okay but the streets, power, supporting facilities such as transportation, government service buildings, gas stations ... were wiped out. You won't pass the inspection because the home can't really be lived in at the moment. You will have to wait until the home and neighborhood is fully functional before you can sell or refinance your home.

Mary Cummins

Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Animal Advocates, Los Angeles, California

Saturday, July 5, 2025

Cause of Camp Mystic Flooding is Poor Texas Zoning Building Regulations by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

Sunday, May 4, 2025

Study Shows High Levels of Lead, Arsenic, Mercury Post Los Angeles Fires by Mary Cummins

Thursday, September 3, 2020

Catastrophic Disaster Area Inspection Report CDAIR, DAIR, 1004D real estate appraisal form, sample by Mary Cummins