Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Animal Advocates, Los Angeles, California

Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Animal Advocates, Los Angeles, California
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Showing posts with label appraiser. Show all posts
Showing posts with label appraiser. Show all posts

Sunday, November 12, 2023

Caltrans Rents Area Under 10, 5, 60, 405 Freeways in Los Angeles, California by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

fire, 10 freeway, los angeles, california, downtown,  real estate appraisal,real estate appraiser, mary cummins ,real estate,appraisal,fire,california,appraiser,los angeles,caltrans, freeway Photo: Caltrans
fire, 10 freeway, los angeles, california, downtown, 
real estate appraisal,real estate appraiser, mary cummins ,real estate,appraisal,fire,california,appraiser,los angeles,caltrans, freeway Photo: Caltrans

UPDATE 11/22/2023 As expected the freeway is not repaired. It's only braced. It will take months to repair the freeway. "Though the shored-up freeway is safe for drivers again, repairs for the damaged overpass will take months, officials said. None of the damaged columns that hold up the overpass east of Alameda Street have been repaired yet, according to Caltrans spokesperson Michael Comeaux.

“Columns damaged by the fire will need to be repaired. The repair strategy may vary between individual columns depending on the extent of damage. The repairs will include the removal of any damaged concrete, patching of the damage, and wrapping the columns with steel casings,” Comeaux said in an email."

"The fire has drawn scrutiny to the state’s open-air lease program. On Wednesday, Caltrans announced inspectors assessed 601 leased sites across the state and of 38 sites that pose a potential risk, only a few present a specific fire or safety risk."

An engineer with Caltrans who was not authorized to speak publicly said 45 columns show clear evidence of spalling, the technical term for the cracking and disintegration of concrete when it is exposed to extremely high temperatures. The heat evaporates water molecules inside the concrete, which makes the material weak and brittle.

Construction crews will have to remove the damaged concrete from each column. In many cases, the engineer said, that damage extends to the reinforcing metal known as rebar that is embedded inside the concrete and spirals around vertical lengths extending from the foundation to the freeway overhead.

Engineers have identified eight columns where the heat of the fire reached far deeper into the concrete. For those columns, crews will have to remove not only the compromised concrete but also the spiral of rebar, the engineer said.

Once the damaged concrete and steel have been removed, the columns will be rebuilt, most likely with steel jackets similar to those used in seismic retrofits of bridge columns (an earthquake review in the 1990s did not lead to jackets being placed around the columns at this location). Grout or concrete will then be injected between the jacket and column."

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-11-22/downtown-los-angeles-10-freeway-fire-repairs

11/18/2023 Authorities release photo of person of interest in the alleged arson fire of the 10 freeway. Mayor Karen Bass said it was definitely not a homeless person. This looks like a homeless person to me. I'm in that immediate area all the time. I see the people down there. I was there last week and saw a homeless guy light a wood pallet on fire for no reason. They don't just do it to keep warm but because they can. People dump shit and trash on the street. Homeless light it on fire especially at night. Someone dumps an old tv that doesn't work. They will beat and crush it then light it on fire as a fun activity like a school bonfire. Once I found a dead dog that'd been put in a shopping cart, lit of fire then pushed down the street into a fence. I'm pretty sure the dog was dead before they lit it on fire or at least I hope so.There are young'ish men down there with mental illness and lots of anger. They will destroy and burn something just as an outlet, to rage against "the man" or just for fun. All those wood pallets, stacks of boxes, trash were begging to be burned. If you go down there, you will see fire marks on all the overpasses. 



https://ktla.com/10-freeway-fire/10-freeway-arson-suspect-description-released/

11/16/2023 Governor Gavin Newsom said the freeway will be open by next Tuesday November 21, 2023! The supports weren't as badly damaged as first thought. 

Per various articles "state officials filed a lawsuit against Apex saying the company owes $78,000 (or $600,000) in unpaid rent." "Apex Development Inc. has leased the land under I-10 since 2008. One condition of Apex’s contract stipulated it not allow flammable or hazardous materials to be stored there."

“Apex rented and improved the rundown yard and made substantial capital investments during the period that it had possession of the yard,” D’Attaray said. “Caltrans inspected the premises periodically, at least once a year, and CalTrans was fully aware of the sublessees and their operations. Even the State of California’s Fire Marshall inspected the premises.”

He said Apex had also repeatedly called the fire department to report fires started by homeless encampments, including along the fence line and at other yards."

https://apnews.com/article/freeway-fire-los-angeles-interstate-10-newsom-3ab9682a866c4e60b80b2d5d185847ac 

11/15/2023 Caltrans knew of an incident where portion of Interstate 85 in Atlanta collapsed after combustible material stored under the interstate caught fire. That incident closed the interstate for six weeks. They wrote a policy directive based on that incident which prohibited storage of flammable materials under bridges and required access for inspections. Engineers stated Caltrans knew about the problem but can't get under the bridges to inspect because of all the junk. In all honesty there is not much in a tightly packed warehouse that isn't combustible. These areas aren't even enclosed so you can't block off a fire like you can in a building. There should at least be smoke, fire, CO detectors, fire sprinklers and fire fighting equipment easily accessible and functioning.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-11-14/l-a-facing-more-traffic-gridlock-amid-signs-of-hope-over-10-freeway-closure

11/14/2023 Governor Newsome said the freeway will open in 3-5 weeks. "Inspectors determined the section of the freeway affected would not need to be demolished and replaced, allowing workers to focus instead on repairing the existing structure, Newsom told reporters. That means reopening the freeways will take a matter of weeks, he said, rather than the months long endeavor some were initially bracing for." He later said maybe only 4/5 lanes will be open initially.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/13/us/i-10-freeway-la-fire-closure-tuesday/index.html

11/13/2023 Fire Department is now saying arson may be the cause. They also stated flammable hand sanitizer from Covid was being stored at the location. 

There is no real address, legal description, Assessor's Parcel Number APN I can find to use to see if there are complaints in Building and Safety ladbs.org . Generally people file complaints based on real address, APN or legal description there which are investigated. Maybe people can't file or view complaints on Caltrans property because it's under a state and not a city, county jurisdiction? Caltrans just said there is no property tax so there would be no APN. That would be a big problem because all building and safety, fire investigations are complaint driven by site location. There are no annual property inspections. Clearly we can't trust the California Department of Transportation to do the complaints and investigations. They should have used emergency powers to clear or safeguard the site. Sadly the entire area down there is very similar. There are many, many shoddy storage facilities under the freeway with homeless camps.

Caltrans own press release of the fire states the address is 1700 E 14th St which is blocks away. The site is in District 7. https://dot.ca.gov/fix-10

Recent article noted one property was leased by Calabasas based Apex Development Inc which was subleasing storage without permission from state and federal authorities. The company stopped paying rent and was out of compliance with the lease.

I see 85 lawsuits involving Apex Development in lacourt.org Below is the eviction lawsuit which is recent by state of California. It includes the companies on the site that burned. The ONLY cause for eviction on the form is non payment of rent. It's not for violations of terms of the lease. Obviously not paying rent is a violation of terms of lease. It's not for allowing the site to be a danger to people and property. Caltrans should have filed emergency eviction for unsafe premises.

I'll post docs in a sec. I see a previous lawsuit 20STCV42245 filed by Apex against Caltrans. It was dismissed. I see another suit against Caltrans 23STCV15418 for breach of contract that's recent for interference with contract and unjust enrichment 06/2023. Apex appears to be litigious. I don't know if they have cause for the suits. I was hoping to find a lease agreement but none were filed or maybe they were filed under seal. I don't know if Apex is claiming Covid hardship for rent payments. 

Case Number:  23STCV22798

THE PEOPLE OF THE STATE OF CALIFORINA, ACTING BY AND THROUGH THE DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION VS APEX DEVELOPMENT, INC., A CALIFORNIA CORPORATION, ET AL.

Filing Courthouse:   Stanley Mosk Courthouse
Filing Date:  09/20/2023
Case Type:  Unlawful Detainer/Commercial (not drugs or wrongful eviction) (General Jurisdiction)
Status:  Pending

Next hearing. 02/15/2024 at 08:30 AM in Department 37 at 111 North Hill Street, Los Angeles, CA 90012 Case Management Conference 

Many parties didn't reply and defaults were filed.

APEX DEVELOPMENT INC. - Defendant

CHOI DANIEL - Attorney for Plaintiff

D'ATTARAY MAINAK - Attorney for Defendant

EAGLE WOOD SERVICE - Defendant

ECO-RAIN TANK OF AMERICA - Defendant

GLUCK STEVEN M - Attorney for Defendant

KATZ JEFFREY E. - Attorney for Defendant

LARA ALFREDO MENDOZA - Defendant

MAX RECYCLING - Defendant

MCA TRUCKING - Defendant

NOWAID ANTHONY - Defendant

PACIFIC EXPRESS PALLETS - Defendant

SERAFIN DISTRIBUTION - Defendant serafindistribution.com/home 1361 Lawrence 
http://serafinsdistribution.com/contact-us

THE PEOPLE OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA - Plaintiff

TORRES TAURINO M. - Defendant claims to live at 1361 Lawrence

Below are jpgs of main current eviction lawsuit.








Another article stated 100 columns of the freeway were damaged. Nine or ten were damaged severely. They don't know if they will have to tear down the overpass or just retrofit it. I believe some of these were previously retrofitted after the 1994 earthquake. The original freeway was built 1933-1957 or so.

ORIGINAL: November 10/11, 2023 (just after midnight) there was a huge pallet fire under the Santa Monica 10 freeway at Alameda and 14th Street which shut down the freeway and interchange. Many have asked why there were wood pallets under the freeway. People don't seem to realize that the California Department of Transporation Caltrans leases the area under the freeways in Los Angeles for warehouse purposes. 10 Freeway on Wikipedia

Based on current law, "Authorizes Caltrans to lease to public agencies or private entities the use of areas above or below state highways. Generally, leases to private entities have to be made on the basis of competitive bids and at fair market value." They can also lease them for less than fair market value if it's for the public good such as a park, homeless shelter...

Currently most of the area under the 10 in this area is warehouse property that caters to fashion industry. If you drive by you will see auto storage, shipping storage, large machinery storage, wood pallets, trash... I would assume all tenants must have adequate fire protection, insurance and abide by Building and Safety and Fire Department regulations. Any major fire under this old 10 freeway could cause a lot of damage besides disrupting traffic to the area. The 1994 earthquake caused a section between LaCienega and Venice to collapse because the supports were made pre 1971 before they were earthquake proof. Other areas needed repairs and retrofitting. The original section was built around 1955 or 1957. I'm not positive. We're still talking about a 70 year old overpass. When I was there day after fire a block away I saw what appeared to be retrofitting and reinforcement of another overpass few blocks away. 

We shall see if Caltrans changes their lease agreement terms after this fire. They should be able to take emergency action against any lessee, sub-lessee who violates the law due to the potential hazards to humans, property and the transportation system.

If you look at these storage sites under the freeway, not all are enclosed with walls. Perhaps the ones not enclosed with solid walls are not considered structures legally so they don't have to abide by Building and Safety regulations? Many just enclose the properties with chain link fencing with barbed wire on top. Perhaps there are not regulations for such enclosures? Clearly there should be. At the very least they need smoke, fire detectors that would not be set off with smoke, exhaust from autos. 

The address of the burned properties appear to be subleases located at 4205 E 14th St, Los Angeles, CA 90021 near Lawrence St and 14th St. Also 1349, 1361 Lawrence. Legal tract is 23269. Close APN is 5167-017-004. Thomas Guide map TG634G7. 5166-004-****. Tract H. N. ELLIOTT'S NINTH STREET TRACT.  It's council district 14 Kevin DeLeon. Zone is PF-1XL. Sign says "we buy pallets" and "Serafin's Distribution." They tried to get a permit to build a building for a scrap yard in 2014 and were denied. Previous building permit was 1925. Maybe it was built in the 30'sand renamed in the 50's. Below is Google satellite image of site, parcel maps and street view. For these two sites to burn makes me think it was a fire accidentally started by homeless people. It's been getting colder at night in the 50's. Google street images shows lots of homeless, cars, car tires stacked, wood pallets.All these things are highly flammable and difficult to extinguish especially under the enclosed freeway.













Here is the Google map of the burned site. Look at street and satellite view for the area. Lots of places full of pallets, trash, cars and homeless people. Years ago when I went to a motorcycle show that was in an industrial site they made me remove all gas from my motorcycle and tape the gas cap shut or else they wouldn't let my motorcycle in the show. It was because of Fire Department and insurance purposes. I'm sure all those cars had gas and oil in them besides batteries, tires which burn for long periods of time.

Because Caltrans is government they pay no property taxes so there is no assessor's parcel map I can yet find for the site. This is all I see. If you hover over it, it says "no information available." I'm trying to get an address to see if there were complaints about fire dangers or other Building and Safety violations. If there is no address, you can't really file a complaint. There must be something. I'll post when I find it.


Here are photos from Serafindistribution.com which shows interior. Their site states they have boxes, paper products, labels, janitorial supplies...



Here is one such current advertisement for warehouse rental under the 10 freeway blocks from the fire, see photo below. This property is for sale with a ten year renewable land lease from Caltrans. 

"Naomi Freeway Distribution1600-1650 S Naomi Ave 39,372 SF Industrial Building Los Angeles, CA$3,890,000 ($99/SF) Warehouses  California  Los Angeles  1600-1650 S Naomi Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90021 Owner User - Investor Opportunity Located Minutes From Downtown, Arts District & Vernon Divisible into 4 Units, Power 1,200 Amp 240 V Service - Ground Level Doors Cal Trans Ground Lease Expires: 5/11/2031 - 10 Yr Option Concrete Block Construction. Owner Use - Investment Property - 5 Warehouse/Distribution Units - Land is Leased From Cal-trans - Newer Concrete Block Construction - Retail - Wholesale Possible - Garment - Cannabis Uses. 20,000 SF Can Be Occupied at Closing. Heart of Downtown Los Angeles Industrial Area Santa Monica Freeway (10) At Central Avenue Exit" https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/1600-1650-S-Naomi-Ave-Los-Angeles-CA/3612898/ POSS INT LOCATED AT 1650 NAOMI AV LOS ANGELES OWNED BY STATE DEPT OF TRANSP 5130 013 000


 #caltrans #california #transportation #fire #marycummins #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #losangeles #freeway #landlease #fire


Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

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Friday, August 11, 2023

Real Cause of racial home value gap is the Income Gap by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

The ACLU wrote about the racial wealth gap. They noted the income gap, homeownership rate gap and mortgage gap. They didn't once blame any of this on real estate appraisers. Imagine that. #black #white #IncomeGap #wealthgap #homeownershiprate #race #money  

https://www.aclu.org/news/racial-justice/visualizing-the-racial-wealth-gap

I just read an article on the income gap. It said there is almost no white, black income gap for poor and lower income individuals. There is a smaller income gap for the middle class. “What this shows is that 97 percent of the overall racial wealth gap is driven by households above the median of each racial group.” This would mean most of the income, wealth gap is coming from the top earners. It's a class gap. I would bet that most of the income, wealth gap is coming from the super rich who are mainly white. "The richest 10 percent of white households who own 75 percent of all white wealth. Indeed, over two-thirds of racial gap reflects the differences in assets held by the top ten percent of households in each group. Class, not race is the major driver of wealth inequality." https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-racial-wealth-gap-myths-and-realities/ Most of the wealth gap is caused by difference in the top ten percent in each group! It's probably mainly caused by some very rich white people. 

"White average wealth ($929,800), which is more influenced by very rich families and does not characterize the typical experience, is 6.7 times greater than Black average wealth ($138,100)." This means that most white people should be complaining about the income, wealth gap between low to mid income and upper class. That's where the biggest gap exists. 80% of the gap is coming from the top 10%. Instead of wasting time on the wealth gap between white, black we need to look at the wealth gap between everyone under the median compared to the top 10%. I bet most wealth in the country is concentrated in the top 1-3%. And I was correct, "Federal Reserve data indicates that as of Q4 2021, the top 1% of households in the United States held 32.3% of the country's wealth, while the bottom 50% held 2.6%."

I will try to see if I can figure out what the income, wealth gap would be if we omitted the super rich with net worths over $5,000000. Multi-millionaires and billionaires could be skewing the data. They are. "Federal Reserve data indicates that as of Q4 2021, the top 1% of households in the United States held 32.3% of the country's wealth, while the bottom 50% held 2.6%." https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/

The income gap is directly related to the homeownership rate. The current homeownership rate for Black and Hispanic homeowners now stand 29 and 23 percentage points lower than the 73% white homeownership rate. This again is all related to socioeconomic factors i.e. income.

There would probably still be a gap because of other socioeconomic factors such as married/single but it would probably be less.We really need to figure out the real problem so we can find a real solution. Blaming the income, wealth gap on appraisers, racism is just wasting time and money that could be better help working on issues that could change things.

I wrote about the the real cause of the home value gap earlier which is the income gap. I need to update it based on AEI's updated research and new article on income/wealth gap. Their recent research shows that whites and blacks who make more money have more money and buy more expensive homes in more expensive areas. There is almost no racial income, wealth gap under median income, wealth. Most of it comes from the top 1%. The wealth gap is mainly from stocks, investments of the top 1% who are mainly white. It's not from home values. All whites, blacks, Latinos...should be complaining about having less income, wealth and owning less valuable homes. It feels like people are trying to pit blacks against whites by spreading this false narrative supported by totally fraudulent paper by Andre Perry. Are super wealthy white people using Andre Perry to stoke the flames of a race war so people won't realize the real issue is the wealth gap between the top 1% and everyone else? 

https://appraisersblogs.com/the-real-cause-of-the-home-value-gap-is-the-income-gap

It's so frustrating to see HUD get bamboozled by lenders and politicians into thinking the cause is appraisers and appraisals. No one else seems to think so including other government departments. The lenders have just been using the false narrative of the alleged racist appraiser to be able to use AVMs Automated Valuation Methods. AVMs make lenders more money. They can also get the value they want so they can close the deal. AVMs are bad for buyers, government, economy, stock market and investors.

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

DISCLAIMER: https://mary--cummins.blogspot.com/p/disclaimer-privacy-policy-for-blogs-by.html

Thursday, August 3, 2023

AEI Response to PAVE Task Force AVM. Appraisers Are Not Racists and Don't Lowball Blacks, Latinos, comments by Mary Cummins

UPDATE 11/03/2023AEI proves once again that HUD, US Government lied about appraisers allegedly low-balling people of color. This is exactly what appraisers have been saying all along. "We find that seemingly large differences in the share of under-valuations–appraisals where the appraised value is below the contract price– received by people of color are almost entirely or entirely due to differences in geographies where people, regardless of race or ethnicity, reside. When comparing appraisals for people of color to those for non-Hispanic white people within the same census tract, we find that there are no or minimal differences.

This analysis suggests that commonalities in people’s experiences in buying a home (e.g. first-time home buyer status) or local market conditions (e.g. the presence of a market frenzy or seller concessions) are far more important than differences in people’s race or ethnicity when it comes to determining who receives an under-valuation and who does not. This suggests that studies by FHFA, Brookings, or Freddie Mac with their singular focus on appraiser racial bias have misdiagnosed the issue." #AEI #americanenterpriseinstitute #marycummins #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #HUD https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/confirming-alternative-explanations-for-appraisal-under-valuations-new-evidence-from-appraisal-level-data/

ORIGINAL: American Enterprise Institute (AEI) made some important independently researched statements in their comment letter about the PAVE Task Force, AVMs and real estate appraisers. It shows with verified facts the flaws in the research cited by PAVE. The research cited by PAVE was poorly done by the Urban Institute, Andre Perry then twisted to meet the agenda of UI, Perry. I have no issues with promoting the interests of black people. I'm Latino and promote the interests of Latinos, Blacks, Asians, women, lower income, homeless... I do have a problem with people falsifying research to promote an agenda with racist lies which hurt innocent people. Below are a few important issues raised in AEI's comment letter to the PAVE Task Force.

1. AEI stated First Time Buyers (FTBs) tend to overpay for properties. There are also more seller concessions. This would explain appraisals being at market value which is lower than contract price. I see this all the time because I appraise in these areas. It's not the result of biased, racist appraisers.

Urban Institute, HUD, PAVE stated that "racist old white male" appraisers were intentionally low balling blacks and Latinos. Their "proof" was a difference in contract price and appraisal values in census tract areas with more Blacks, Latinos. I'd commented at the time it was probably because there is a correlation between race and income. Whites make more money than blacks, Latinos. People who make more money have more money and buy more expensive homes in more expensive areas. Areas which are predominantly black, Latino are lower income areas with many first time buyers. 

"The presence of first-time homebuyers (FTBs) or the use of seller concessions could affect the sale price relative to the AVM. Our analysis in “Exploring Alternative Explanations for Appraisal UnderValuation” shows a significantly higher share of FTBs in tracts with lower levels of non-Hispanic White residents. This is significant because the literature shows that FTBs tend to overbid for a home by approximately $3,000, or about 1% of the contract price for the average home compared to repeat buyers and that they use a higher share of seller concessions, which can amount to 2.01-3% of the property price."

2. The letter noted that homes in lower priced areas that are more likely to be predominantly black, Latino are generally in lower rated condition which would be C4, C5 rating as opposed to C3 and above. I see this every day in my inspections of these areas. Again, it has to do with money. The more money you have, the more you will spend to properly maintain and upgrade your home.

"Even though the paper controls for home quality as measured by an exterior condition rating, we found in other work that exterior condition ratings can be quite different from interior condition ones. We also found that home interior quality can be a significant factor in the difference between an AVM and a home’s sale price and that for a small number of properties with extreme conditions that difference was significant."

3. The letter also again stated that AEI found no effect of race on appraisal value

"We have pointed out serious flaws in numerous studies that purport to show widespread appraiser bias or systemic devaluations of neighborhoods." https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/exploring-alternative-explanations-for-appraisal-under-valuation/

They suggest "To better measure and document appraiser racial bias, we once again propose reviewing every appraiser for racial bias and deliberate inaccuracies based on a comprehensive review of their past refinance appraisals. To that end, we have demonstrated a working methodology in “A Blueprint for Mass Screening Appraisers for Racial Bias and Inaccuracy Based on an Atlanta, GA Study” that could be implemented today by either FHFA, Fannie Mae, or Freddie Mac.Ultimately, the goal of public policy should be to identify biased and inaccurate appraisers and to prosecute the former and to educate and retrain the latter."

I fully support this. Please, fairly audit everyone's appraisals. I'd be the first to take racist appraisers out behind the woodshed. Take away their license, charge them with actual crimes and send them to prison. Stop blaming every appraiser for racism and bias. What really irks me is that these people are claiming racism and bias when they are doing exactly that to real estate appraisers. If you're against racism, bias, you should be against ALL racism or bias against everyone or else you're a hypocrite.

https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/a-response-to-the-recommendations-of-the-pave-working-group/

https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/A-Response-to-the-Recommendations-of-the-PAVE-Working-Group-FINAL-1.pdf?x91208


Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

DISCLAIMER: https://mary--cummins.blogspot.com/p/disclaimer-privacy-policy-for-blogs-by.html

Wednesday, August 2, 2023

Appraisers Can't Use Demographic Census Tract Data Yet Government Uses it to Attack Appraisers by David Towne

real estate appraisal,neighborhoods,david towne,real estate appraiser,mary cummins,real estate,appraisal,census tract,california,appraiser,los angeles,
real estate appraisal,neighborhoods,david towne,real estate appraiser,mary cummins,real estate,appraisal,census tract,california,appraiser,los angeles,



Another great article by real estate appraisal expert Dave Towne cited below. He states what many have noted since the government started mentioning census tracts and appraisal values. Appraisers can't and don't use census tract report data in selecting comparables or valuing properties. We are not allowed to consider personal demographics. We can only consider properties in a market area similar to the subject property. Neighborhoods, market areas do not correlate with census tracts! Census tracts were made by the government to gather personal demographics of the inhabitants in specific tiny areas to compare changes over time. They are a more recent artificial constructs of government which have nothing to do with determining appraisal values.

The first census tracts in the US were made in 1906 in New York. In 1934 they were standardized and expanded to a few major cities. "The goal of the criteria has remained unchanged; that is, to assure comparability and data reliability through the standardization of the population thresholds for census tracts, as well as requiring that their boundaries follow specific types of geographic features that do not change frequently. The Census Bureau began publishing census tract data as part of its standard tabulations beginning with the 1940 Census." 

For all we know the original tracts may have included some type of "redlining" based on race, nation of origin, primary language spoken, income levels... The "redlining" may have just been a correlation of less wealthy people living near the railroad tracks, polluted industrial areas and wealthier people living near the city center or a beautiful lake. Income, wealth correlate with race but race is not the cause.

The 1934 tracts have not changed but neighborhood boundaries, home values and real estate have definitely changed. Sometimes even the physical boundaries have changed with new freeways, aqueducts, dams, large government projects, dedicated parks, removal of train tracks... These areas also change as different areas go through the real estate cycles of growth, stabilization, decline and revitalization. Home values go up and down. Different people move in and out.

Appraisers use market areas sometimes called neighborhoods to selected comparables to value a subject property. WE DO NOT USE CENSUS TRACTS! The census tract number is auto-filled by a software program in the report. That's the only mention and use of census tracts. The government is the one who requested that data for their own loan use which is why it's in the form. Now they are misusing it to mischaracterize appraisers as alleged "racists" who "lowball" blacks and Latinos. Independent research by AEI has proven that race is not a factor in appraisal values. Whites make more money than Latinos and Blacks. If you make more money, you have more money and wealth. If you have more money, you will buy a more expensive home in a more expensive area. The main value of real estate is LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. 

When we search for comparables for a subject property some use a half mile radius from subject. Some go one mile. In rural areas they go a few miles. For a high density condo area you might just use 1/4 mile radius. Some appraisers use known neighborhood boundaries which could be two streets, railroad crossing, major boulevard, freeway or the ocean. It depends upon the subject property. If I were appraising a home in the N 600 block in the flats of Beverly Hills, I would search N 500-700 then probably go two blocks east and west of the subject for starters. If I needed to go wider, I'd only go east or west and not north or south. North is much more expensive because they are larger estates. South is much smaller tract homes on much smaller lots. I don't look at or search census tracts. I'd have to figure out how to do that if my MLS could even do that. In fact this census tract of Beverly Hills is the first one I've ever looked at in my life just now. There are ten census tract maps in the map below.

Below is the census map which includes Beverly Hills, zoning map of Beverly Hills and zip code map. They're all different. I'm using this because I grew up here and know all the different market areas very well. Some of the areas in the census maps are commercial only and worth trillions of dollars. People don't live in those areas. They are stores, offices, medical centers in the golden triangle. Some of the areas in the census map are Beverly Hills and some are the city of Los Angeles. Beverly Hills property is easily worth twice Los Angeles property even if it's just across the street for many reasons yet they're in the same census tract. 

There's a thick line running down the middle of two census tracts. That's Sunset Blvd. Properties north of Sunset are worth 2-3x as much as properties south of Sunset. I could go on and on. The purpose is to show you that census tracts have nothing to do with real estate appraisal values. Three homes in the same tract could easily be worth $300,000 (small studio condo in Los Angeles), $2,000,000 small tract house south of the long gone rail road tracts on Santa Monica Blvd or $50,000,000 home above Sunset. Census tracts don't correlate with value. They should only be used to talk about people. 

I think the problem with census tracts and home values first started with fraud Andre Perry. He used Zillow Zestimate home values in different census tracts and compared them with the predominant race of people in the census tract area. His goal, agenda was to show that black owned homes are worth less than white owned home due to "old white racist male" appraisers intentionally low balling black people. No appraiser appraised any homes in his paper. He used only inaccurate Zillow values. He also just used the majority percentage of blacks in each area. He then cherry picked and twisted the results to fit his agenda. The results of his fraudulent study showed that whites make and have more money than blacks, latinos. Whites can afford to buy more expensive homes in more expensive areas. We've known about the income and wealth gap for years. It's caused by income and socioeconomic factors but not race or real estate appraisers. AEI research which disproves Andre Perry's fraudulent paper.


Census map of Beverly Hills. Ten maps which include Century City, Sherman Oaks and Los Angeles cities.


Map of the city of Beverly Hills broken up by zip codes just so you can see the outline of the city.




Below is Dave Towne's article. I asked his permission to share it. I'd link to it but he posts it in an appraisal group which is not public.

"Not to gloat, but I seem to be the only appraiser in the US who has observed and reported how people-oriented DEMOGRAPHIC CENSUS TRACT DATA reported by FHFA, the GSE’s and other entities is being used to tar and feather appraisers.  I have written about this topic at least 2x in the past.

The latest is this 8/01/23 INSIGHTS newsletter, in the link, from FHFA ...... the ‘conservator’ of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac:

Blog | Federal Housing Finance Agency New Measures in the UAD Aggregate Statistics: Opportunities to Explore Data on Comparable Properties and Structural, Lot, and Neighborhood Characteristics (fhfa.gov)

Here’s what’s in that (screen shots of the document):




Appraisers don’t appraise properties with CENSUS TRACTS as a paramount data point.  Most of us don’t even know where the tract boundaries are.

The Census Tract Number on the appraisal form is only there so that the LENDER and their regulators can track loans made in Tracts.

Because the ‘researchers’ cannot get into the minds of appraisers to determine how comps are selected, all the ‘researchers’ can do is fall back on this DEMOGRAPHIC metric.  That’s unfair to appraisers.  “We” appraisers are not allowed to use or consider people-oriented DEMOGRAPHICS in reports.

But what’s conveniently overlooked in this metric is the econometric status and other factors that play into where people choose to live and how baseline property valuations are done, starting with the local jurisdiction Assessor.  Those baseline factors started decades ago, long before most appraisers got into the business.

Buyers also don’t use Census Tracts as a determining factor on where to buy their home, unless magically the Tract corresponds with other geographic or personal factors the buyer considers important.  Builders/developers in most cases don’t purposely put up new housing based on Census Tract demographic info.

What’s been happening since 2018 or before is the likes of Andre Perry and Elizabeth Corver-Glenn, Ph.D, etc., have incorrectly used Census Tract people-oriented DEMOGRAPHIC info to inform Congress and others that “We” appraisers are valuing properties all wrong and it must be stopped.

Because of this, Census Tracts are becoming the de facto element “We” must acknowledge and that other people think is proper.

In short, using only this people-oriented DEMOGRAPHIC based data item to judge appraisers is just plain wrong.

Dave Towne, MNAA, AVAA, AGA "  

About David Towne

Certified Residential RE Appraiser at Towne Appraisals

AGA, MNAA, Accredited Green Appraiser - Licensed in WA State since 2003

https://www.linkedin.com/in/dave-towne-4a65226/
https://www.towneappraisals.com/

http://www.e-appraisersdirectory.com/Washington_Appraisers:Towne_Appraisals-48-2989-0-0-1864.html

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


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Sunday, July 30, 2023

Nazario Incorrectly Blames Their Home Affordability Issues in Los Angeles on Government by Mary Cummins


This family of four tries to blame the government for their inability, unwillingness to cheaply rent or buy a home in central Los Angeles on their low wages with little savings. There are a few issues here the biggest being their relatively low wages. The article states the two daughters graduated from college. Jennifer Nazario got a Masters in economics and Paula Zanario got one in public policy. Their Opinion op-ed piece shows they may not have been paying attention in class.

People making minimum wage can't afford to rent a one bedroom in LA same in SF and NY let alone buy a home. Median rent for one bedroom here is $2,100. You need two people with minimum wage jobs to afford that and they're still rent burdened. They should increase their wages before considering buying. They've now bought at the peak of the market with high interest rates and a super low down payment. Hope they didn't get an adjustable and never have an emergency or job loss.

One issue I've found with people living in rent control units is they never strive to increase their income because they don't need to. I can only imagine how low the rent is for that studio after having been there for 25 years. It's wayyyyyyy below market rent. They've been taking advantage of their landlord who has subsidized their rent for 25 years. Their landlord is probably also an immigrant Latino. 

Legally they were not allowed to have four people in there. They could have been evicted easily but the landlord was nice to them and allowed them to stay. It's two people max allowed for a studio though sometimes they'll allow a very young underage child.

As I read the article the two kids weren't old enough to work until about 2022. They said they both went to college then grad school. They chose not to get full time jobs. Then they said they, I assume the two daughters, make over $136,650 a year combined. They did at least state they were happy they had low rent so they could save a lot of money for years. That's nice. It also means they are admitting they could have afforded a bigger better place if they wanted to. They are complaining about a situation they created for themselves.

The writers state they applied for the BofA program but didn't qualify because they made too much money. They also applied for the California Dream for All program which ran out of funds. Then they whined about the pay back part of one program if they accrue equity and sell. That's how the program works and is funded! We're really just taking their word for it. There could be more involved like credit scores, time at their jobs, other debt like car payments, credit card debt, bad debt, student loans...

They ended up buying a home outside of expensive downtown Los Angeles with 3% down. This was after they basically complained about rising rents, home prices and gentrification. They moved somewhere else and contributed to gentrification in that area. "Gentrification" has nothing to do with race but finances. Finances correlate with race in the US. Whites make more than Latinos and Blacks. It's actually just the revitalization cycle of real estate. People get pushed out of more expensive areas into less expensive areas. That's what happened with this family. They originally found a cheap place to live because it was in the recession phase before the recovery phase. They just did the same with their new place. They committed "gentrification."

Jennifer and Paula Nazario suggest government programs should provide free or cheap down payments for homes for poor people with low income jobs, bad credit, lots of debt and no savings. They clearly were not paying attention in class especially Jennifer with her Economics degree. If anyone can basically buy a home for free even though they can't easily make the mortgage, taxes, insurance, upkeep expenses, they will default and lose the home. That's why conventional loans don't allow you to borrow the down payment money. If you aren't making enough income to afford the down payment, you can't weather any emergency and won't be able to pay back the loan. Someone with no money in the deal won't care as much about losing the property. No bank would loan on a property without an equity cushion for fees, costs if they get stuck with it in foreclosure. There is a ton of years long research on this. 

Someone should have dissuaded the Nazarios from writing this clueless op-ed piece. It makes them look really stupid. I wasn't going to say anything until I saw that Jennifer has a degree in Economics. I'm truly embarrassed for them because I'm Latino. Thankfully I have common sense and don't expect the government to pay for everything for me. You have to do some things for yourself in this world.

From the article: "Jennifer Nazario is a systems administrator at a network of college-preparatory schools and a first-generation college graduate with a master’s degree in economics. Paula Nazario is an assistant director at UCLA and the first person in her family to go to college. She has a master’s degree in public policy."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/family-four-shared-cramped-studio-100112963.html



Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


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Sunday, June 11, 2023

Reparations and Return of Lost Land by Mary Cummins real estate appraiser and genealogist


When Janice Hahn first made the motion to return Bruce's Beach to one of the original owners for $20,000,000 I knew it would start a real estate gold rush for "lost land" and it has. Blacks, Latinos, Indigenous, whites and everyone else will all be asking for payment for lands once maybe owned by their ancestors. 

While the return of Bruce's Beach was big news it did not set a legal precedent because it was a gift. There was no recent lawsuit. The county of Los Angeles did not have to give the land back to the Bruces. The Bruces ultimately agreed to sell the property for much, much more than market value back in the day after an eminent domain lawsuit which they lost. It wasn't "stolen" from them. Had they invested that money back into real estate they would have much more than $20,000,000 today but they didn't. They sold the real estate and spent the money. They recently said they will sell the property again. In essence the family sold the property twice both times for more than market value. Some are upset they aren't keeping it in the family to build generational wealth for black families. It's their property to do with as they please. The real cause of the wealth gap among whites, blacks, Latinos is the income gap.

Because of the Bruces' big payday many people are thinking about asking for compensation for land once owned by their ancestors or maybe they just rented it or lived there. Sometimes that land was sold fair and square. Other times it was taken through legal eminent domain, failure to pay taxes, legal abandonment, questionable transactions, outright theft or war. 

While genealogical documents, old newspapers, old real estate deeds can show some ownership interests and transactions, that might not tell the whole story. How will we figure out who actually owned the rights to the property and whether or not they actually sold or transferred it fairly and legally? How will we figure out which descendants should be compensated, for how much and in what order? 

In 1923 20-150 black people were murdered in the Rosewood Massacre. It was sanctioned by the local government. The people who survived fled in fear abandoning their real and personal property. By the 1990's some considered a lawsuit but evidence and statute of limitations issues ended those plans. Years later a politician filed a bill to compensate the children of some victims for the losses. The few that were left got about $150,000 each. I watched the film in 1997 and did most of the genealogical research for the Rosewood Cemetery. I personally feel they deserved much more compensation but, Florida.

In the 1950's Chavez Ravine properties were taken, bought by eminent domain. The owners were compensated for the land. Some sold outright. Some filed lawsuits. Dodgers Stadium ultimately ended up being built on the land. During the eminent domain proceedings there were holdouts who sued. They lost the lawsuits but did get over market value for the land at the time. The descendants of some are now talking about suing to get Bruces Beach type of money. Some didn't even own the land but were just renters or lived there with others for free. Some renters were given relocation fees. In fact most living in Chavez Ravine at the time were renters. Do their children who never lived there have a right to new compensation? The stories of eminent domain actions for Los Angeles freeways, government buildings, schools are all very similar. Poor people living in poor areas were displaced for government projects. The government chose the sites based on logistics, economic feasibility and property values. Race was not a consideration. Many times the people displaced were whites.

There are already sufficient laws to protect real estate rights in our country. Anyone can file a lawsuit to try to reclaim land they feel rightly belongs to them. They just need to provide proper documentation. There's currently a system for clearing heir property with clouded title. Some of these cases go back a few generations over 100 years. But what about people who owned the land before the US existed? In my state of California the land was previously owned by Mexicans, Spaniards and Indigenous people in that reverse order. Who has the legal right to the land and compensation? 

In a recent article on this issue "A New Front in Reparations: Seeking the Return of Lost Family Land" Thomas W. Mitchell, a law professor and director of the Initiative on Land, Housing & Property Rights at Boston College Law School, stated  “We are talking about the loss of heritage and history and culture.” “You are talking about a fundamental hit in terms of economic mobility and generational wealth.” But whose heritage, history, culture and wealth are we talking about? Should claims by Native Americans take precedence based on chronological order? They definitely lost their "heritage, history, culture and generational wealth" besides their lives. Did they legally sell or give their land to US states and nations? No, it was stolen, taken by the Spaniards, French, Russians, US states, USA and private individuals through brute force. Is brute force, war a legal means of seizing property?

What about the Spaniards. Did they legally give all Spain owned land grants to Mexico after the Mexican revolution? Did the state of California legally acquire land from Mexico after the war? At least the California, Mexican, Spanish land grant documentation still exists but there were no grants from Native Americans. Generally possession over a period of time shows rights to the land. Perhaps because the Indians didn't have a paper deed written in English filed at the local county assessor's office showing they owned the land they never really owned it. If a tree falls in the forest and no one hears it...?

Bruce's Beach was originally owned by the Tongva Indians. There was no sign that said "Free land. Take whatever you want, kill us and send the rest of us on a death march to a small desolate area of the country." Should the Bruce family give the $20,000,000 to the Tongva Indians just like LA County gave it to them? Maybe the Tongva tribe should sue the Bruces? The Tongva weren't even allowed an eminent domain hearing. They were killed and forced off the land. Is that considered a legal real estate transaction? It's a legitimate question.

Another recent article talked about reparations and real estate in California. California was never a slave state yet a state commission was convened to study black slave reparations for residents. The commission considered papers and research on blacks, wealth, income and property. No reparations will be paid for many reasons. First and foremost the state doesn't have the funds. Second and more importantly one would need to consider reparations for all before you start handing out state money otherwise it's discrimination. There was already a black only Covid subsidy case which set legal precedent and reversed the subsidy. There are a lot of poor Latinos, Native Americans, Asians and even whites who are affected by some of the same negative influences in the Reparations Report. You don't have to be descended from slaves owned in another state to be poor in California. It was actually a good thing for those slaves and their descendants that their owners came to free state California because they were freed. They would have continued to be slaves in other states for much longer.

Latinos, Chinese, Japanese, everyone except the rich were taken advantage of for labor, real property, personal property through government actions all throughout California's history. Some Chinese were murdered in government sanctioned massacres and their property stolen. Others US citizens were expatriated to Mexico during the depression losing their land, jobs, income and all possessions. The Japanese were sent to internment camps but some have been compensated for some lost property. And don't forget about the Native Americans. Some were given rations and land but it was never equal to the land value of the US. Who gets reparations, land, how much and in what order? 

In the article "Can Reparations Bring Black Residents back to San Francisco" linked above a woman talks about the old family home in Fillmore sold through eminent domain from her black grandfather. Her grandfather was paid market value for the property. Had he reinvested in real estate his family would have more money than the current value of their old home today. But they didn't. She still wants reparations for the value of the property. She also feels she personally should get the home back. What about the people who owned it before her? What about the Native Americans who owned the entire area and the Americas?

Descendants of black slaves weren't the only people living in blighted areas sold under eminent domain in California. Latinos, Asians, Italians, Irish, immigrants, Jews... poor people of every race and color including whites lived in those areas. Do they also get reparations? I realize it was the California Reparations Task Force which was formed to mainly look at reparations for the descendants of black slaves owned in other states and free black people who were in California by the 19th century. The purpose was to calculate racist and other harm done to black people. Still, the task force considered the economic effect of things which affected more than just descendants of black people. Other people experienced racism, colorism, sexism, genderism, religious persecution, people taking advantage of the poor... Will we revisit and re-litigate every act of eminent domain? Every land transfer? Every instance of a laborer being paid less than what they feel they were worth or due? Every murder and assault? Every slight ever made to another in California? Everyone would end up owing everyone else money and California would go broke. 

Another woman in the article wants the tossed about figure of $5,000,000 per black Californian reparations so she can move back to expensive San Francisco. She states it's her home because she lived there when it was a less expensive blighted place. What about all the other poor people who also lived there and had to move? Blacks weren't the only people living there. What about the Indians who used to own it? It was their home for over 10,000 years. Currently they're trying to reclaim some of their land. They tried to reclaim Alcatraz but failed. They were given back some land in the form of reparations in the East Bay. Now they want to reclaim "Turtle Island" which is their name for all of North America

So far we have no set answers but a Pandora's box full of question. We do at least have centuries of established real estate laws. Most of our real estate laws came from the British and are older their our own country. You sometimes see them cited in Supreme Court rulings. People have always been able to sue for these causes. We'll soon see if the courts will be flooded with lawsuits to unwind eminent domain actions and other real estate transactions. Title companies may be busy. 

As I'm both a licensed real estate appraiser and genealogist perhaps this may be my new calling. I was able to figure out market value for Bruce's Beach property in 1920. I could appraise even older claims if I could find enough documentation. This may be the beginning of an interesting new era in genealogical real estate studies. Or we could just give Turtle Island back to Native Americans, go back to our ancestral countries and be done with it. 

References:

AB 3121 Reparations Task Force Report https://oag.ca.gov/ab3121/reports

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

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