Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Animal Advocates, Los Angeles, California

Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Animal Advocates, Los Angeles, California
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Showing posts with label bias. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bias. Show all posts

Thursday, August 3, 2023

AEI Response to PAVE Task Force AVM. Appraisers Are Not Racists and Don't Lowball Blacks, Latinos, comments by Mary Cummins

UPDATE 11/03/2023AEI proves once again that HUD, US Government lied about appraisers allegedly low-balling people of color. This is exactly what appraisers have been saying all along. "We find that seemingly large differences in the share of under-valuations–appraisals where the appraised value is below the contract price– received by people of color are almost entirely or entirely due to differences in geographies where people, regardless of race or ethnicity, reside. When comparing appraisals for people of color to those for non-Hispanic white people within the same census tract, we find that there are no or minimal differences.

This analysis suggests that commonalities in people’s experiences in buying a home (e.g. first-time home buyer status) or local market conditions (e.g. the presence of a market frenzy or seller concessions) are far more important than differences in people’s race or ethnicity when it comes to determining who receives an under-valuation and who does not. This suggests that studies by FHFA, Brookings, or Freddie Mac with their singular focus on appraiser racial bias have misdiagnosed the issue." #AEI #americanenterpriseinstitute #marycummins #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #HUD https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/confirming-alternative-explanations-for-appraisal-under-valuations-new-evidence-from-appraisal-level-data/

ORIGINAL: American Enterprise Institute (AEI) made some important independently researched statements in their comment letter about the PAVE Task Force, AVMs and real estate appraisers. It shows with verified facts the flaws in the research cited by PAVE. The research cited by PAVE was poorly done by the Urban Institute, Andre Perry then twisted to meet the agenda of UI, Perry. I have no issues with promoting the interests of black people. I'm Latino and promote the interests of Latinos, Blacks, Asians, women, lower income, homeless... I do have a problem with people falsifying research to promote an agenda with racist lies which hurt innocent people. Below are a few important issues raised in AEI's comment letter to the PAVE Task Force.

1. AEI stated First Time Buyers (FTBs) tend to overpay for properties. There are also more seller concessions. This would explain appraisals being at market value which is lower than contract price. I see this all the time because I appraise in these areas. It's not the result of biased, racist appraisers.

Urban Institute, HUD, PAVE stated that "racist old white male" appraisers were intentionally low balling blacks and Latinos. Their "proof" was a difference in contract price and appraisal values in census tract areas with more Blacks, Latinos. I'd commented at the time it was probably because there is a correlation between race and income. Whites make more money than blacks, Latinos. People who make more money have more money and buy more expensive homes in more expensive areas. Areas which are predominantly black, Latino are lower income areas with many first time buyers. 

"The presence of first-time homebuyers (FTBs) or the use of seller concessions could affect the sale price relative to the AVM. Our analysis in “Exploring Alternative Explanations for Appraisal UnderValuation” shows a significantly higher share of FTBs in tracts with lower levels of non-Hispanic White residents. This is significant because the literature shows that FTBs tend to overbid for a home by approximately $3,000, or about 1% of the contract price for the average home compared to repeat buyers and that they use a higher share of seller concessions, which can amount to 2.01-3% of the property price."

2. The letter noted that homes in lower priced areas that are more likely to be predominantly black, Latino are generally in lower rated condition which would be C4, C5 rating as opposed to C3 and above. I see this every day in my inspections of these areas. Again, it has to do with money. The more money you have, the more you will spend to properly maintain and upgrade your home.

"Even though the paper controls for home quality as measured by an exterior condition rating, we found in other work that exterior condition ratings can be quite different from interior condition ones. We also found that home interior quality can be a significant factor in the difference between an AVM and a home’s sale price and that for a small number of properties with extreme conditions that difference was significant."

3. The letter also again stated that AEI found no effect of race on appraisal value

"We have pointed out serious flaws in numerous studies that purport to show widespread appraiser bias or systemic devaluations of neighborhoods." https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/exploring-alternative-explanations-for-appraisal-under-valuation/

They suggest "To better measure and document appraiser racial bias, we once again propose reviewing every appraiser for racial bias and deliberate inaccuracies based on a comprehensive review of their past refinance appraisals. To that end, we have demonstrated a working methodology in “A Blueprint for Mass Screening Appraisers for Racial Bias and Inaccuracy Based on an Atlanta, GA Study” that could be implemented today by either FHFA, Fannie Mae, or Freddie Mac.Ultimately, the goal of public policy should be to identify biased and inaccurate appraisers and to prosecute the former and to educate and retrain the latter."

I fully support this. Please, fairly audit everyone's appraisals. I'd be the first to take racist appraisers out behind the woodshed. Take away their license, charge them with actual crimes and send them to prison. Stop blaming every appraiser for racism and bias. What really irks me is that these people are claiming racism and bias when they are doing exactly that to real estate appraisers. If you're against racism, bias, you should be against ALL racism or bias against everyone or else you're a hypocrite.

https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/a-response-to-the-recommendations-of-the-pave-working-group/

https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/A-Response-to-the-Recommendations-of-the-PAVE-Working-Group-FINAL-1.pdf?x91208


Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

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Wednesday, July 19, 2023

Fed Michael Barr: AI could 'perpetuate or even amplify' racial bias in mortgages, by Mary Cummins

Michael Barr of the Federal Reserve stated artificial intelligence AI could perpetuate or even amplify racial bias in mortgages, mary cummins, real estate appraiser, real estate appraisal, los angeles, california, michael barr, racial bias,federal reserve, fed, loan origination, race, black, white, bias
Michael Barr of the Federal Reserve stated artificial intelligence AI could perpetuate or even amplify racial bias in mortgages, mary cummins, real estate appraiser, real estate appraisal, los angeles, california, michael barr, racial bias,federal reserve, fed, loan origination, race, black, white, bias

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is now being accused of racial bias. They're basically stating math, statistics, numbers themselves are racially biased. Again, the correlation between race and home value is caused by the income gap. If you have less money, you buy a less expensive home. Same with credit scores. The less money you have, the lower your credit score. POC make less money than whites. I'm just glad they're not still falsely accusing appraisers of AI's bias like they did previously with Andre Perry's fraudulent paper. No appraiser was involved in his data only robot Automated Valuation Methods (AVMs) which were basically accurate.

https://www.americanbanker.com/news/feds-barr-ai-could-perpetuate-or-even-amplify-bias-in-mortgages

"Fed's Barr: AI could 'perpetuate or even amplify' bias in mortgages

By  Kyle Campbell

Michael Barr, vice chair for supervision at the Federal Reserve, said in a speech Tuesday that artificial intelligence in mortgage underwriting could exacerbate racial bias if left unchecked.Bloomberg News

The Federal Reserve's top regulator is wary of the use of artificial intelligence in mortgage underwriting. 

Speaking at the National Fair Housing Alliance's national conference Tuesday morning, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said advancements in mortgage origination technology could lead to discriminatory lending practices."

Just did some Googling on racial bias in loan origination. 98-99% of the difference in loan origination between blacks, whites explained by credit scores and leverage. Did they consider LTV on the home or all debts? There's more to credit than credit score and LTV ratios. They include savings, how long at current job, debts, monthly financial responsibilities, single vs married, children... AEI research considered those factors.

"How much does racial bias affect mortgage lending? We assess racial discrimination in mortgage approvals using new data on mortgage applications. Minority applicants tend to have significantly lower credit scores, higher leverage, and are less likely than white applicants to receive algorithmic approval from race-blind government automated underwriting systems (AUS). Observable applicant- risk factors explain most of the racial disparities in lender denials. Further, we exploit the AUS data to show there are risk factors we do not directly observe, and our analysis indicates that these factors explain at least some of the residual 1-2 percentage point denial gaps. Overall, we find that differential treatment has played a limited role in generating denial disparities in recent years."

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/how-much-does-racial-bias-affect-mortgage-lending.htm

I'm thinking this is just showboating for political reasons. The banks, credit unions don't want to give up credit scores. They correlate highly with ability to repay loans. 

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

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Friday, April 21, 2023

Tucker Carlson speaks the truth about real estate appraisals now?! Last show. by Mary Cummins

tucker carlson, tucker carlson tonight, joe biden, kamala harris, marcia fudge, mary cummins, real estate appraiser, real estate appraisal, bias, racist, white supremacist, fico, credit
Tucker Carlson: The Biden admin is punishing Americans with high credit scores. Fox News host Tucker Carlson reacts to a new Biden administration rule that will punish Americans with good credit on 'Tucker Carlson Tonight.' tucker carlson, tucker carlson tonight, joe biden, kamala harris, marcia fudge, mary cummins, real estate appraiser, real estate appraisal, bias, racist, white supremacist, fico, credit, fox news @tuckercarlson

UPDATE: And a couple of days later he's gone from FOX News. This was his last story, show. Of all stories to be his last! He was let go Monday morning. https://www.tmz.com/2023/04/24/tucker-carlson-leaving-fox-news/

ORIGINAL: Some Facebook appraisal groups are sharing this video of Tucker Carlson talking about Democrats trying to get the vote. In the video he talks about Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Marcia Fudge lying and stating that all appraisers are white supremacists who are racists against black people and devalue their homes. Tucker Carlson states they provided no evidence that this is true. While I prayed to God for a savior in the media to spread the truth about the issue Tucker Carlson sure as hell would not have been my first choice. Was there no one else available, dear Lord?!

SHOW: "Tucker Carlson: The Biden admin is punishing Americans with high credit scores. Fox News host Tucker Carlson reacts to a new Biden administration rule that will punish Americans with good credit on 'Tucker Carlson Tonight.' " April 21, 2023 https://www.foxnews.com/video/6325545406112 Real issue starts at 2:15 min into it. Text https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-biden-admins-new-rule-punish-people-high-credit-scores

Carlson says Marcia Fudge says home appraisers are white racists who lowball black homeowners. Even HUD's own data shows this is false. AEI did independent research on HUD's data and proved there is no racism in home appraisal values, see link below. He shows a clip of the CNN August 2022 interview which I wrote about. Fudge says black people have lost great wealth through the appraisal process. No, they have not. Again, AEI research ( https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/comments-on-the-pave-report/ ) proved this to the PAVE task force by debunking Andre Perry's non-peer reviewed, non-published paper ( https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/AEI-Housing-Center-Response-to-Perry-and-Rothwell-2021-final.pdf?x91208 ) . The difference in value between white and black, brown owned homes is caused by the income gap. Whites make more money so they have more money and buy more expensive homes in more expensive areas. That's it! It's the income gap, stupid!

Marcia Fudge again offers the false anecdote about her home being worth less than her neighbor's only because she is black and the neighbor is allegedly white. This has been debunked here previously ( https://mary--cummins.blogspot.com/2022/03/pave-task-force-action-plan-from-white.html scroll to "I live in an all" ). Fudge's home is much older, of average quality and sits on the main highway. The homes across the street are new, of very good quality and in a private development off the main highway. That's why the newer homes are worth more. We don't know the color of the owners of the new homes. If Fudge doesn't understand this, she should not be the head of HUD. She also shouldn't be believing Zillow Zestimates of value. We all know they are not accurate.

Carlson said Kamala Harris in March 2022 was talking about the Home Appraisal Workforce (she meant PAVE task force ). She said appraisers are mainly white and biased. She said appraisers now must take training on fair housing and bias because of her and PAVE. False. We've been taking this training since at least 1989. You have to take it to get your license. There are new training hours which will take effect this year. It's more of the same exact training that we've taken since the 1990's. They are just divvying up the number of credits differently. It's the same total hours with the same topics.

Carlson then talked about the false accusations that all appraisers are white supremacists, "There is zero evidence of that. It's a slur upon home appraisers. Why do they deserve this abuse?" "They're using fake allegations of racism as the pretext of a political plan. They're doing it for votes." I totally agree. Can't believe I just agreed with Tucker Carlson! I feel gross but what he said is true. Why is Carlson speaking the truth now? Is he trying to change his MO after the huge defamation lawsuit loss because of his lies? I knew one day probably near election time GOP would pick up on Biden's false narrative about appraisers. I just didn't think it'd be Tucker. Anyway here is the research which proves that appraisals are not racially biased. https://www.aei.org/how-common-is-appraiser-racial-bias/ Real estate appraisals are a math formula. We don't even know the color of the owners of all the homes we appraise and use as comparable sales.

Biden just introduced a rule about credit scores and fees effective May 1, 2023. People with FICO of 740 or above will pay $40 more a month. People with low credit scores will get a discount of 1.75%. I personally believe this is unconstitutional. The purpose of credit scores is to reward people for working hard, saving money and paying bills on time. They are lower risk borrowers so their loans costs less. The better your score, the less you pay for credit because the risk of default is lower. Carlson said black people have average credit scores under 680. He says he doesn't know why. I do. It's because of the income gap. Whites make more than blacks and browns. It's because of socioeconomic factors and not color. Whites are also more likely to be married. It's cheaper to live as a married couple than two separate households. Whites less likely to have multiple children under the age of 18 than blacks, browns. Again, AEI proved this with independent data based on government data, see above. Fix the income gap and other factors if you want things to be more equal. Don't go blaming appraisers just because it's easier and good for votes.

This new program won't even help poor people. It will help them get stuck in an over priced home in a depreciating market. They will be paying higher interest rates on their mortgage which they can't easily afford. They are more likely to not be able to afford their mortgage while the economy contracts and some lose their jobs. As their home value depreciates they will end up under water. Thanks, Biden, Harris, Fudge! The Gov did the same before the great recession. Why don't they learn their lessons? Because politics and getting votes. They don't really care about helping poor people but getting their vote. It really is a sad situation.

FTR I'm a Democrat who voted for Biden. I agree with most of his positions except the false narrative of the "racist appraiser" and mass "appraiser bias" in appraisal values. This started during the last campaign cycle. Both Harris and Biden as candidates for President promised to "finally" help lower income black and brown people. If they really want to help, fix the income gap!




Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin DISCLAIMER: https://mary--cummins.blogspot.com/p/disclaimer-privacy-policy-for-blogs-by.html

Monday, February 20, 2023

Rebuttal to Marcia Fudge's Misleading 2022 CNN Interview by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

Marica Fudge, HUD, Laura Coates, CNN, interview,Mary Cummins real estate appraiser, bias, discrimination, racism,white, black, Latino, home value, 


Marcia Fudge of the Housing and Urban Development Department (HUD) was on CNN August 22, 2022 with Laura Coates discussing alleged appraisal bias. "Housing and Urban Development Sec. Marcia Fudge says her department is examining the process in which home appraisers collect data, which she says is systemically biased against people of color." "HUD Secretary On Battle Against Racism In Real Estate."

Here is a link to the show:   https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/08/22/hud-sec-fudge-racism-in-home-appraisal-process-coates-intv-ctn-vpx.cnn

Here is a link to the transcript: https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/se/date/2022-08-22/segment/01

Marcia Fudge continues to promote the false narrative of the alleged "racist appraiser" "devaluing black owned homes." Marcia Fudge has the facts and independent research yet actively intentionally promotes the false narrative to promote her own agenda. Fudge's agenda is to get media attention for herself and more money for her department. Fudge and politicians have created this problem so they can state they alone can fix it. In fact based on what Fudge said in the interview the problem has already been fixed just by doing the same thing they've done for years.

The real issue is the income gap. White owned homes are valued more than black, Latino owned homes because of the income gap. Whites make more money than blacks, Latinos. The more money you make, the more money you have. The more money you have, the more expensive home you can buy and own. The more expensive home you have, the more generational wealth is created.  If you want to fix the home value gap, fix the income gap. Fudge won't admit to that because then the problem is not in the jurisdiction of her department HUD and she won't get more money.

Below are some very misleading quotes by Marcia Fudge.

"Because what we know is that it used to be that these things happen only in redlined
communities. But now it is pervasive, it is happening everywhere. And we determined that part of the problem was how appraisers are trained, who was in the appraisal industry, and how they are governed. And so, what we did, in March, was to present a report that showed how deeply, this whole bias situation, is across this country. It is systemic, and it is intentional to some degree."

Marcia Fudge doesn't understand redlining. Here's an article I wrote about it. Those risk maps were made by her own government agency HUD FHA and no longer exist. Government made risk maps were a way to determine loan risk. They included many factors. We still use all of these factors except we don't use race or country of origin. If you took race and country of origin out of the old maps, they were 100% as effective in determining risk. Obviously race and nation of origin have nothing to do with loan risk. Correlation is not causation. Not all maps even included those factors. 

"That's part of the problem, Laura, it's the data. So, they collect data, and the data is not what it should be. They then use the data, in a way that it should not be used. And so, they come up with these biased appraisals. But as well, when you look at an industry, that is more than 95 percent White, you find that people of color, are treated differently, because there is an inherent bias with a lot of them. And because they collect the data, the data is not good data."

Appraisers don't collect data. The data is home sale prices. It's just data. HUD collects this data. Zillow has and uses the same data. MLS, Title collect data. Appraisers use the public data according to the law and well established, accepted economic theory. HUD is one of the government agencies which told appraisers what data to use and how to use it. Appraisers are doing what HUD told us to do.

95% of all appraisers aren't white. I've gone over the misleading statistics in previous articles. Almost the same amount of appraisers are white as real estate agents. If most agents are white, does that mean they are also all racists? Most people in the US are white. Does that mean every white person is racist? Of course not. 

"If those homes are appraised the way that they should be Laura, then we look at being able to pass down, significantly, more resources, and more wealth, to generations that follow." "And if we are
constantly being discriminated against - and that is really what this is. We can call it bias, if you want. But it is systemic racism, and it is built within most federal agencies, and those agencies that we oversee." 

This is the result of the income gap and not appraisers. Here is AEI's response to the PAVE Task Force. Fudge knows this. She has the facts, data and research. If she truly believes this, she should be fired because she's incompetent. Fudge is just lying to the public. 

"So, we're tackling it. We are now advising first-time homebuyers, on their rights, if they get low appraisals. We are doing it to people, who sell properties. We are going to train all of the appraisers through fair housing and lending laws. We're going to make sure that the data is collected properly. And we're going to make sure that the right people have the data."

Fudge's solution is to do what we've already been doing for years. Fudge created a "horrible" problem then instantly fixed it by doing nothing. All these things have already been done years before she was the head of HUD. This proves she knows the problem doesn't really exist. She hasn't made any real changes and now it's "fixed."

Marcia Fudge stated that her own home is worth less than white owned homes down the street because she is black. This is of course false. I did a valuation of her much older home on a busy highway. It's worth less than the homes up the street because they are new luxury homes off of the highway. If Fudge doesn't understand this, she doesn't understand the basics of home appraisal and should resign as head of HUD. She states this falsehood for effect every time she speaks. 

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 40 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin DISCLAIMER: https://mary--cummins.blogspot.com/p/disclaimer-privacy-policy-for-blogs-by.html

Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Real Reasons Appraisers Come in Below Contract Price by AEI. It's not Racism, by Mary Cummins



AEI just released a report about appraisers coming in below contract price in areas with lower income buyers, lower priced homes and more blacks and Latinos. This is exactly what I've been talking about. Again, AEI proves it with science and facts. Just FYI AEI is considered a "conservative" source. 

"Our critique points out some significant shortcomings of these studies. Notably, they focus on entire
neighborhoods, when they should study the actions of individual appraisers. They use the greater share
of under-valuations as evidence of racial bias, when they should consider explanations unrelated to bias
that might account for under-valuations, including for example the greater share of first-time
homebuyers, who tend to overbid, or the greater presence of seller concessions, which will reduce the
appraisal amount when they are properly accounted for. They also fail to note the size of these undervaluations. Using the Aggregate Statistics Data File and Dashboards, our analysis indicates they are relatively small, averaging about $1,100 to $1,900.5 These levels are too high if they are in fact due to racial bias. However, our analysis finds multiple other plausible explanations for under valuations of this magnitude such as the greater presence of first-time homebuyers or seller concessions. We also note
that under valuations of this magnitude of are unlikely to depress entire neighborhoods and, they may
in fact provide a disproportionate consumer benefit to minority homebuyers.

We conclude with a renewed call on Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and regulators such as the FHFA to mass screen individual appraisers for racial bias and inaccuracies. We have already laid the groundwork for this research with a published working methodology." 

The most important issue which I've stated previously is they focus on appraisal value and contract price for purchases and no refinances. When doing an appraisal for purchase the appraiser NEVER sees, meets the borrower, buyer. We may see the seller or the seller's agent but never the borrower. The government study also doesn't know the race or color of the borrower, buyer AND appraiser. What if it's only black appraisers coming in low with black borrowers? A recent horrible unreliable "study" showed that the appraiser who came in the lowest for black people was themselves black. 

More important observations from AEI's study. Contract price does not equal market value. First time home buyers which are more likely in these lower priced areas are more likely to over bid. They don't always know they can negotiate. These same areas tend to have homes in lower condition. The appraiser adds more comps to appraisals which are below contract price. I do this to fully back up my work so everyone can understand the value. An appraisal that comes in below the contract price would not endear you to the AMC or lender. Appraisers HATE coming in below contract price but we do it because it's the right legal fair thing to do. The appraisal is to secure the loan not help a buyer or seller.

Some good snippets though you should read the entire report.

Fist time buyers offer over market value. "Shui and Murthy (2019) conclude that first-time homebuyers using Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac financing overbid for a home by approximately $3,000, or about 1% of the contract price for the average home compared to repeat buyers. They also find that FTBs with higher LTVs tend to overpay by more compared those with lower LTVs. FHA borrowers, who are disproportionally concentrated in minority census tracts and largely FTBs, typically have higher LTVs and lower credit scores and may thus be more likely to overpay than other buyers."

There are more seller concessions in these first time buyers, buyers using gov funding and these areas. If a home sells for $100,000 and has a $3,000 seller concession, appraisers subtract $3,000 from $100,000 in the adjustments. The net price is $97,000 which is under contract price now by 3%. There are more concessions to help buyers buy the property and because of condition.

There are more buyers for lower priced homes. This causes buyers to over bid for homes based on supply and demand. We saw this during the recent Covid runup. Buyers bid and paid over list price. They had to make up the difference in loan amount with a larger down payment. 

First time buyers aren't just competing against other buyers but also against their rent. Many only compare what they are paying in rent to what their mortgage will be. Quick story. Friend of mine was buying a cheap mobile home. She wanted to buy a cheap home because the mortgage is less than her rent. She was buying it to save monthly expenses. Appraisal came in $20,000 below contract price of $85,000. She asked me for help. I told her appraisal value looked correct. I told her to ask seller to reduce price. She said "but it's actually worth $85,000! It's almost the cheapest house on the market! I will lose the home to someone else! I have to buy this home because the monthly payments are cheaper than my cheap rent!" She didn't care about the price but the monthly payment being less than rent. She only wanted to find a way to get $20,000 more cash for the down payment. Thankfully seller reduced the price. The appraisal gap prevented her from over paying for her first home. Many first time buyers in less expensive areas feel the same way. 

Buyers using government funding tend to overbid. They're buying the home with someone else's money because of lower down payment requirements.They just want the home at any price believing it will instantly go up in value and they will have thousands in equity to take eventually. The government told them this is the American dream.

The actual appraisal gap is small. There is almost no gap in Latino areas and 1% in black areas. The government made this huge stink about appraisal gap and there barely is one! "In our prior critique of Freddie Mac’s research note, we find that “there appears to be no gap [in home purchase appraisals] relative to White tracts for Latino tracts and a relatively small gap [in home purchase appraisals] of 1-2% for Black tracts.” They mean predominantly white, Latino or black census tracts. None are 100% white, black or brown. That means whites are having the same issues in those areas as blacks and Latinos. The gap is not a color issue because the same things happens to whites in the same area. 

AEI again debunks Andre Perry's "paper." Perry stated appraisers devalue black owned property by $48,000 per home. That's much more than the difference in contract price and appraised value of 1%. AEI pointed out that homes owned by poor whites are also valued less than homes owned by wealthier whites. It's not because of skin color but income, wealth and location.

Appraisals coming in below contract price can help lower income Latino, black buyers. They can renegotiate with the seller. The government didn't say the buyers never closed on the properties and the deals died. They're prevented from overpaying and ending up upside down. AEI state that the government is part of the problem. They help and allow buyers to over pay for  homes at the top of the market only to lose those homes later when the market tanks or they have a financial emergency. And you know who the government falsely blames for that? Appraisers!

This kind of reminds me of the destroyed apartment buildings in the Turkey earthquake. Their President bragged that he reduced earthquake requirements to allow the construction of 300,000+ homes for lower income people. That is one of the major causes of the high fatalities in the earthquake. The President basically killed people. FHA and the government like to brag that they helped low income people buy homes. Then they lose their homes because they over paid at the peak of the market and couldn't easily pay the mortgage. Also reminds me of our student loan problems. Latinos, blacks are the ones stuck with huge student loans while the government brags they helped them get an education. Most didn't even finish their education and get the degree or certificate. Most of the ones that did didn't even get the better paying promised job. Governments just want to brag that they "helped" people not caring that they actually destroyed them financially. If the government helped them find a way to earn more money, they could buy a home on their own and afford to stay in it. 

AEI suggest mass screening of appraisers to check for racial bias. I support this. If any appraiser knew of a racist appraiser who came in low on a black, Latino owned home because of their racial bias, they would love to take that appraiser back behind the wood shed. All appraisers are being attacked, vilified, defamed based on this false narrative of the "racist old white male appraiser." While racism sure as hell exists, not all appraisers are racists who lowball Latinos and blacks. If there are appraisers doing this, other appraisers would be the first to hold them accountable and strip them of their license. 

FTR Dan Wiley of Freddie Mac stated this about their appraisal gap research. "We have not reached any conclusion for cause of the gaps or correlation. Our research showed that further studies are warranted." Danny Wiley and Freddie Mac are doing further research into the possible causes of the appraisal gap. They are looking at all the new data and reviewing all appraisals involved in the appraisal gap research. Of course that hasn't stopped Marcia Fudge, HUD, media... from running with Freddie Mac and other's inconclusive data about appraisal gap from stating it's allegedly caused by racial discrimination by appraisers. 

https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/exploring-alternative-explanations-for-appraisal-under-valuation/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=exploring_alternative_explanations_for_appraisal_under_valuation&utm_term=2023-02-14


Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin DISCLAIMER: https://mary--cummins.blogspot.com/p/disclaimer-privacy-policy-for-blogs-by.html

Wednesday, February 8, 2023

Mary Cummins Comment to ASC Bias Committee February 8, 2023, Real Estate Appraiser

Mary Cummins, ASC, appraisal subcommittee, appraisal bias hearing, @asc.gov, real estate appraiser,real estate appraisal, los angeles, california, hud, marcia fudge, appraisal institute, aei, american enterprise institute, bias, discrimination, junia howell, paul austin, tenisha tate austin, craig steinley, Michael Fratantoni, Mortgage Bankers Association
Mary Cummins, ASC, appraisal subcommittee, appraisal bias hearing, @asc.gov, real estate appraiser,real estate appraisal, los angeles, california, hud, marcia fudge, appraisal institute, aei, american enterprise institute, bias, discrimination, junia howell, paul austin, tenisha tate austin, craig steinley, Michael Fratantoni, Mortgage Bankers Association

02/26/2024 I never got a reply about my comment. It is not public anywhere except here. I doubt anyone read my comment letter. They definitely didn't respond to any issue. If you send in a comment, post it publicly on your own. Otherwise it just ends up in a black hole. They tell you to send comments just to make it appear they are listening to you. They are not listening to appraisers. They are only listening to what fits their agenda which is the promotion of the false narrative of the old male male racist appraiser. Research by AEI has shown there is no racism in appraisals, see below.

ORIGINAL: Below is the comment letter I sent to the Appraisal Subcommittee in regard to the January 24, 2023 Appraisal Bias Hearing. It was confirmed as received. "Appraisal Bias Hearing via appsubcomm.onmicrosoft.com 2:07 PM (1 hour ago) We are in receipt of your message. Thank you for contacting the Appraisal Subcommittee." While they probably won't read it, it's now part of the Federal record for ASC and HUD. 


Mary Cummins

February 7, 2023

Appraisal Subcommittee

Appraisal Bias Hearing Comment Letter

AppraisalBiasHearing@asc.gov

I watched the January 24, 2023 ASC Appraisal Bias hearing. Comments were requested after the hearing. This letter is my comment. 

I've been a real estate appraiser in Los Angeles, California for 40 years. I've been a licensed California Certified Residential Appraiser since licenses were first offered in 1993/1994. I'm a Latino woman who speaks English and Spanish. I appraise property in the diverse county  of Los Angeles and state of California.

There is no denying that racism exists in our country. We must do all we can to stop racism, sexism, ageism and all the other isms. As an appraiser I support fair, unbiased appraisal practices and valuations. I support using the scientific method and facts in order to identify the real problem in order to solve it.

I witnessed a lot of misinformation and disinformation during the hearing. Marcia Fudge the head of HUD and some of the specifically chosen speakers made racist and other statements which are not supported by facts and evidence. While there is an income, wealth and home value gap among whites, blacks and Latinos it's not caused by real estate appraisers. It's caused by the income gap. That is the real problem which must be solved. Blaming appraisers for the income gap will never solve the real underlying problem.

Government research has shown that there is an income gap between whites, blacks and Latinos ( AEI Housing Center Response to Perry and Rothwell, 2021, https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/aei-housing-center-response-to-perry-and-rothwell-2021/ ). Whites make and have more money than blacks and Latinos. Men make more than women. Married couples make more than singles. The income gap is the cause of the wealth gap including the generational wealth gap. It's the cause of the difference in value among white and black, Latino owned homes. 

Research has shown that people who make more money have more money and buy more expensive homes (see link above). People buy homes they can afford in areas they can afford. People who make more money also buy more expensive cars. The difference in value of the cars is also not caused by real estate appraisers. 

If the race and color of the homeowners were the cause of the differences in home valuations, why do identical white owned homes in the same areas of black, Latino owned homes have the same value as black, Latino owned homes? The value has nothing to do with race or skin color but location. Everyone knows the three main indicators of value are LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. A home in a small town in Ohio with few amenities is generally worth less than a home of the same size in prime Beverly Hills, California. The value is mainly in the dirt.

Fudge and some of the others spent their time attacking and blaming "old white male" real estate appraisers for the home value gap. Appraisers report market value based on the sound economic theory of matched pairs analysis. This same theory has been used since the beginning of time to value all assets. This is set by the concepts of the free market and willing and able buyers and sellers. Fudge's promotion of the false narrative of the "racist appraiser" will never solve the real problem which is the income gap.

I will now reply to the individual instances of misinformation by the speakers in order starting with Marcia Fudge. 

I. Marcia Fudge, HUD

Marcia Fudge is one of the heads of the PAVE Task Force. American Enterprise Institute (AEI) provided research, data and information to the Task Force ( AEI Comments on PAVE, March 2022 https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/comments-on-the-pave-report/ ) which proved the real cause of the home value gap is the income gap. Fudge knows this yet instead irresponsibly promotes the false narrative of the "racist appraiser" as the cause of the home value gap. Fudge promotes Andre Perry's false, misleading and debunked "paper" instead of independent verifiable research and facts. Perry's paper was based on robot valuations and not appraisers. 

While Fudge states she hates and fights racism Fudge's multiple comments against white people reflect her own racism. It appears that Fudge prefers to falsely state that the problem is (white) real estate appraisers because her department HUD oversees those issues. HUD has received extra funding for this issue even though the real cause of the problem is not within control of her department. Government funding should be provided to the Departments that can actually solve the income gap problem. This is why we must first determine and state the problem which is the income gap.

Fudge stated that property tax paying for police, fire and schools was unconstitutional. It's inconceivable that the head of a major US government department would make this statement which is a violation of her oath. When Fudge became the head of HUD she took an oath March 2021 stating "I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States (snip), that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter. So help me God." 

Fudge inferred that she wanted property tax assessment values to rise so people would pay more property tax so they could get more police, fire protection and money for local schools. She doesn't realize that most older retired disabled people can't afford to pay more taxes and keep their homes. They'd be forced to sell with higher taxes. Appraisers don't even make property value assessments. Those are made by Tax Assessors. 

Fudge stated that black people remove personal photos, items to increase home value. That is false. All real estate agents tell all home owners of every color to remove personal articles such as photos, collectibles from their home. It shows the home bigger and better. Buyers don't want to see any other person reflected in the home. They want to envision themselves in a blank slate of a home. It's not about race.

Fudge stated she started the appraisal appeal process for racial bias. Appraisal appeal, Reconsideration of Value (ROV) have ALWAYS been available to borrowers of all types. They can appeal based on any reason. A difference in appraised value and contract price is not about bias. It happens more in black, Latino areas based on the home values and not the race. Research by AEI based on government loan documents proved there is no effect of race on home value ( AEI, How Common is Appraiser Racial Bias https://www.aei.org/how-common-is-appraiser-racial-bias/ ). AEI presented this to the government in the meeting about the PAVE task force yet Fudge keeps denying these facts.

Fudge brought up her home value previously. She said her older home is worth less (than a white person's home up the street) BECAUSE SHE IS BLACK. I included a valuation of her home and of the NEW, LUXURY homes up, across the street from her in a past article. It's a private development of new luxury homes tucked away off the main street. I have no idea if the home owners are all white. I doubt Fudge does either. There is a reason why those homes are worth more. They're new, luxury, in a new development, with a clubhouse, off the main street highway... Not all homes of the same size in the same county are worth the same. An old run down home in South Los Angeles is worth less than a new one of the same size in Beverly Hills. If Fudge doesn't know this basic appraisal theory, she should resign because she's clearly unqualified to run the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

II. Dr. Junia Howell

Howell prefaced her research by basically stating without any proof that appraisers are racist and appraise homes in black, Latino areas for less than areas with more white owned homes. Howell promotes the false narrative of the racist appraiser. Howell states she did research on property values in white, black and Latino areas in Texas. Howell supports this with a chart showing the difference in home values of predominantly white vs black, Latino owned homes. We're back to the income gap. Blacks, Latinos make less money than whites. For this reason they buy less expensive homes in less expensive areas.  I can only assume they promote this falsity for their personal agenda of wanting more funding to pay them for more research.

Howell doesn't understand basic real estate cycles, i.e. Growth, Stability, Decline, Revitalization. Howell stated areas which were redlined but are now mainly white owned increased in value. Areas which were not redlined but are now mainly black, Latino have decreased in value. Howell states this proves it's based on race when it actually proves it's based on real estate cycles and income. When values go up in an area, people with more money buy and own those homes. When values go down, blacks, Latinos are more likely to buy and own the homes because they make less money. When people get pushed out of more expensive areas, they buy homes in lower priced surrounding areas. Those lower priced areas are generally more black, Latino. Some call this "gentrification" but it's just a real estate cycle called "revitalization." It's all because of the income, wealth gap.

Howell misstates "redlining" as a "map based on race of inhabitants." There were many, many factors involved in the original Federal Housing Administration (FHA) lending policies. They were based on income on inhabitants, age of buildings, condition of buildings, beds/baths, location... to determine loan risks. We still use all of those factors today EXCEPT race. It's racist and against the law to use race, religions or any other similar factor.

Howell stated that whites in the US government used these risk maps to intentionally value white owned property higher than black, POC owned property. Howell is so uneducated in this matter that she doesn't even realize that back in the 1930's most areas which were mainly inhabited by POC were actually owned by whites. The risk maps prevented white property owners from receiving lower cost Federal guaranteed loans. Howell stated "White, affluent areas were appraised as most valuable." The key here is "affluent areas." It's the income wealth gap. Correlation does not equal causation. 

There are poor white areas in the US. How does Howell explain the difference in property values between wealthy and less wealthy white owned properties? She doesn't. It's not the color of their skin but the income gap. Howell made many more false and uneducated statements before stating that more research should be done. Howell wants more money to do more uneducated flawed research to promote the false narrative of the "racist appraiser."

III. Paul Austin and Tenisha Tate-Austin

I have covered this case in great detail because I'm an appraiser in California where the Tate's home is located. While the Austins may feel the difference in two home appraisals was due to racial discrimination the facts show it was not. Based on my research and experience the first appraiser used the best local comparables in Marin City and came in at market value. The second higher appraisal used dissimilar comparables in a very different more affluent area in Mill Valley much farther away from the subject. That is why it came in over market value. Marin City was built on swamp land as a Federal low income poor quality housing project built by the lowest bidder. The Tate's home was built cheaply using telephone poles on very steep previously unbuildable land. Mill Valley is an upscale community with high quality larger homes and some of the best schools and amenities in the state. 

The Tates stated in their testimony and lawsuit that Marin City is basically populated by African Americans while Mill Valley is white. The Tates wanted the appraiser to only use high valued comps from Mill Valley and not lower valued comps from Marin City right next to their home. That would violate Federal appraising regulations besides being bank fraud.

The Tates believe their whitewashing of their home increased the second appraisal value. It didn't. What increased the value was another appraiser with lower ethics who was most likely pressured by maybe the AMC, Lender to come in higher. The second appraiser is the reason why the first appraiser was falsely sued for coming in "low." The second appraiser should be sued for bank fraud, appraisal violations and lose their license. 

IV. Michael Fratantoni, Mortgage Bankers Association

Frantantoni basically promoted the MBA. Frantantoni suggested Automated Valuation Methods (AVMs) could reduce bias in appraisals.  AVMs don't reduce but increase bias. AVMs are robots that don't actually see or inspect the home. They base their value on recently sold allegedly similar homes based on home/lot size, bed/bath count and age. They don't know if the home actually exists, its condition, upgrades, view, lot type, specific location in a neighborhood, actual size, true bed/bath count, permitted/unpermitted additions... AVMs value average homes in poor condition over market value and improved homes with views under market value. Marcia Fudge stated she also supports AVMs. Zillow's AVM actually produced the false and misleading data used in Andre Perry's "paper." 

V. Craig Steinley, President, the Appraisal Institute, AI

The AI is a non-government non-profit organization. It costs about $15,000 to become an MAI AI designated appraiser. For this reason AI mainly represents wealthy older white male appraisers. It does not represent the average appraiser or most appraisers in the US.

AI wants to maintain its working relationship with the government. For that reason they support many though not all falsehoods stated by Fudge, HUD and other some government agencies. In their letter they promote their own actions as supporting the government.

That said AI makes some important points about AVMs and the Sales Comparison Approach.  

AVMs are not reliable. "One thing to be noted is that a good portion of the research that has been conducted on valuation bias has evaluated automated valuation model data – not appraisal data, including the contrasting research from the Brookings Institution and the American Enterprise Institute. We cannot overlook the Zillow CEO’s statement in the 4th quarter of 2021 concerning the “difficulty of accurately estimating market value” as a concern for AVM reliability." 

Sales Comparison Approach is reliable. Some have called for the "elimination of the sales comparison approach in appraisal. The BRSPT suggests those recommendations be ignored, and we will go on record as being outright opposed to such efforts. The sales comparison approach is grounded in economic theory, and it is universally accepted throughout the world." Some in government have suggested getting rid of the sales comparison approach which would destroy our economy. No bank would give a loan and no investor would buy a loan that is not based on an appraisal using the sales comparison approach.

In conclusion the cause of the difference in home valuations between whites and blacks, Latinos is the direct result of the income gap. The government needs to recognize and state the real problem so it can be solved. Blaming real estate appraisers will never solve the income gap or the home value gap. Blaming appraisers for the income gap is as ridiculous as blaming appraisers for gun violence and gas prices.

Please, rely on qualified independent scientific research and facts. Promoting the false narrative and attacking appraisers instead of trying to solve the real issue hurts everyone.  Throwing money at HUD won't fix the income gap. Please, fix the income gap and all its causes so we all may experience the American Dream of owning a valuable home.

Mary Cummins

California Certified Residential Appraiser

License # AR010207

Los Angeles, California

http://www.MaryCummins.com

https://www.facebook.com/CumminsRealEstateServices


Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin DISCLAIMER: https://mary--cummins.blogspot.com/p/disclaimer-privacy-policy-for-blogs-by.html

Monday, January 9, 2023

Cancel Culture is Destroying Freedom of Speech on Important Issues by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

mary cummins, real estate appraiser, appraiser, appraisal, real estate,real estate appraisal, los angeles, california, racism, cancel culture, bias, black, white, freedom of speech
mary cummins, real estate appraiser, appraiser, appraisal, real estate,real estate appraisal, los angeles, california, racism, cancel culture, bias, black, white, freedom of speech


If someone does something racist, they should be called out and educated. If a police officer murders a black man, they should be arrested and tried in a court of law. If someone just talks about these issues, they shouldn't be attacked, sued, have their business ruined, reputation destroyed, be harassed, threatened and assaulted. It doesn't make any sense. It harms freedom of speech, promotes racism and destroys any chance at public discourse of the issues.

Lizzo took a moment on a Sunday morning to share her concerns about cancel culture.“This may be a random time to say this but it’s on my heart.. cancel culture is appropriation,” Lizzo tweeted on Sunday (Jan. 8).“There was real outrage from truly marginalized people and now it’s become trendy, misused and misdirected,” she wrote. Lizzo continued: “I hope we can phase out of this & focus our outrage on the real problems.”

People are more upset about people talking about racist issues than the actual racism, race violence and hate crimes. People are more upset about someone stating facts about the false narrative of the racist appraiser than they are about real racism against blacks, the wealth gap or the fact that blacks, Latinos have little generational wealth. We appraisers can't even talk about the issue without being attacked, harassed on social media, getting false negative business reviews, death threats or threats of physical harm. Appraisers can't even comment on articles about the false narrative of the "racist appraiser" or we'll be viciously attacked. In fact some appraisers, AMCs and lenders have piled on to the false narrative in order to garner praise, seem woke, appear to be doing something about racism, get business, positive press and to not be attacked over the same issues. Some lenders have even used this issue to rip off POC by luring them in with promises of no racism only to charge them higher rates which is racist.

The real issue here is the income and related wealth gap between whites and POC. Because POC make less money, they have less money and wealth including generational wealth. Because they have less money and wealth, they buy and own less expensive homes in less expensive areas. The cause of the difference in value between white and black, brown owned homes is not the fault of the real estate appraiser. The data used in these misleading articles didn't even come from appraisers or appraisals but flawed automated valuation methods, robots, software programs by failed Zillow. The real problem is the income gap. Tell politicians and the government to fix the income gap. Assaulting real estate appraisers will never fix the problem.

Someone on Twitter stated in response to Lizzo's tweet, "Jessica Ballinger @BallingerMom Replying to @lizzo

Absolutely ❤️ There are very real issues that warrant outrage… I sometimes wonder if cancel culture stems from people feeling impotent against those bigger issues, so they go after simpler targets to feel better about themselves, like they did something."

I can understand the feeling of wanting to do something about racism but harming an innocent bystander is wrong. If someone sees racism against POC by white people, that doesn't give them the right to beat up and kill any white skinned person they see. That's just as racist as the racism they say they hate. It's also hypocritical.

In this situation by forcing real estate appraisers to shut up about the false "racist appraiser" narrative they are destroying freedom of speech and any public discourse on the issue. Instead the public only sees the misleading articles about specific cases in the media which are false. The media now writes these articles to get more outrage, traffic to sell more ads. One media will share the article by another media to make money off ads. 

I've written about some of those cases here. The homeowners weren't low balled due to the fact they were black and the appraiser was white. The homeowners weren't even low balled in the specific cases I reviewed here. The specific properties were appraised using the closest most similar sold comparables. They were all near the edges of more valuable but very different neighborhoods. They were worth less than homes in the next neighborhood for very good reasons. The homeowners just wanted their homes to be worth more and were maybe misled by Zillow, RedFn and other robot "Zestimates."

I really hope in 2023 appraisers will be allowed to write articles about these issues or at least comment on articles without being so viciously attacked that they have to delete their comments or only comment anonymously. That doesn't help anyone. It just perpetuates racism and hatred against white appraisers.


Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin DISCLAIMER: https://mary--cummins.blogspot.com/p/disclaimer-privacy-policy-for-blogs-by.html

Thursday, June 23, 2022

Alleged Appraisal Overvaluation in Sales Comparison Approach review by Mary Cummins Appraiser


This paper came out in 2017 but is making the rounds again today. The authors believe they found evidence of appraisal overvaluation in the sales comparison approach in appraisals in 2015 and 2016. I read the article and replied below. Directly below is their summary. 

"Abstract Home appraisal came under scrutiny for contributing to the home-price bubble and enabling the origination of risky mortgages that led to the post-2006 foreclosure crisis. Subsequent regulations tried to minimize or eliminate conflicts of interest and improve valuations. Nonetheless, our study of appraisals completed in 2015 and 2016 find that appraisal bias still occurred. Our analysis delves into the underlying appraisal development to identify causes of appraisal bias. Contributing factors are that comps are generally higher valued than the subject property, and appraisers are more likely to comparatively adjust upward lower priced comps but less likely to adjust downward higher priced comps. KEYWORDS housing price determination, residential appraisal"

"Using a large sample of appraisals ordered to underwrite purchase-money loan applications in 2015 and 2016, we find that about 69% of comps were represented by transactions valued at more than the subject property. After controlling for the availability of market transactions and a variety of loan and property characteristics, we continue to find a greater likelihood of selecting more expensive comps."

https://millersamuel.com/files/2022/06/AppraiserOvervaluation.pdf

My reply: The first issue to consider is 2015 and 2016 markets were increasing in value. It makes sense there would be more higher than lower priced comps available. In a decreasing market you would probably see the opposite. 

The second issue is lenders, AMC, underwriters demand that the subject size, bed/bath count and main amenities are bracketed with comps currently listed, pending or sold within three months of the appraisal. Three sold, one pending and one listed comps are mandatory. If you intentionally select properties which are larger and have more bed, baths than subject, they will most likely have sold for a higher price than subject. Sometimes you can bracket size with one comp but need another to bracket bed/bath count. This means you have potentially two out of the three or 66% sold comps which will be, must be superior to subject by design. You still need a comp or comps that bracket the lower end of size, bed/bath count... 

The third issue is supply and demand. How many months of housing supply were available at the time? Was it similar to 2020/2021 where there weren't enough homes available for sale so most properties sold instantly over market? There's no box in the grid to adjust for that. 

The fourth issue is there were many developer flips during this time. The properties were bought low, improved with new kitchen, baths, paint, landscaping...then sold higher. Of course they could be in better condition all around than subject if the subject wasn't also a speculator flip. 

The fifth issue is home attributes which affect value that are not covered by the adjusted factors in the grid or cannot be exactly measured. Those attributes could be curb appeal, staging, marketing, landscaping, superior architect, superior design/remodel, superior layout, custom lot shape, specific superior view, upgraded non line item features... We can only include adjustments which we make using matched pair statistical analysis using math. It's not always possible to extract a value for staging, marketing, landscaping, upgraded non line item features, three tone paint, superior layout, distinct view... 

The writers' conclusion below,

"Our evidence of calibration bias, although helpful to understand appraisal overvaluation, cannot answer the question of how it occurs without further research into the development of calibrated values. To that end, a hedonic pricing model can be a helpful tool to assess the accuracy of a price adjustment associated with a given property attribute or amenity while also ensuring consistency and accuracy in the aggregate. Incorporating hedonic pricing techniques into appraisal development is limited. Given the amount of detailed property information and modeling technology that are available today, the appraisal practice could benefit from employing data-driven analytics to help assess appraisal accuracy in an efficient and quantifiable manner. Future research in this direction can develop a better understanding of the underlying appraisal valuation process."

I'm glad they admitted they don't know how the alleged "over valuation" occurred. Maybe there was no overvaluation. Maybe it was the result of what I stated above or maybe it was something else. Would have been nice to do the same in a decreasing market for comparison. While data-driven analysis is always good you will still need a human to appraise real estate, homes for now because humans are the ones buying, paying for and owning them. The contract price is based on the human's level of desire for the property.

There are some things a human can see, find valuable that an AVM robot or statistics cannot. For example a Mercedes is worth more than another similar car because it has a superior design and is more appealing to the eye and market. So is a Louis Vuitton, Gucci, Chanel purse for the same reasons. Kelly Blue Book values and company sales records are the proof of this. The items are generally made out of the same amount of similar materials yet one is worth more than the other. Design, appeal, every factor in market reaction can't be easily calculated in a form appraisal.  

Citation: Mayer YG, Nothaft FE. Appraisal overvaluation: Evidence of price adjustment bias in sales comparisons. Real Estate Economics. 2022;50:;862–881. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12351

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin DISCLAIMER: https://mary--cummins.blogspot.com/p/disclaimer-privacy-policy-for-blogs-by.html

Wednesday, March 9, 2022

Some Lenders promoting false "racist appraiser" narrative to optimize profits via AVMs, by Mary Cummins real estate appraiser

mary cummins, real estate appraiser, los angeles, califoria, lender, amc, avm, hybrid appraisal, racism, bias, discrimination, bettermortgage, urban league, andre perry, house canary, zillow
mary cummins, real estate appraiser, los angeles, califoria, lender, amc, avm, hybrid appraisal, racism, bias, discrimination, bettermortgage, urban league, andre perry, house canary, zillow

Like most businesses lenders want to optimize their profits. One way to make more money besides charging more is to pay less in costs and fees. One way for the lender to do that is to pay the appraiser less or just get rid of them and use a free or very inexpensive Automated Valuation Method (AVM). 

I personally don't care if a lender or borrower wants to use an AVM. There is enough business out there for appraisers because not all appraisals are for loans and not all government insured loans allow AVMs. They generally don't allow them in higher risk situations such as high loan to value (LTV) ratio, cash out, lower credit score ... 

My only issue with the use of AVMs instead of a full inspection appraisal has to do with the borrower. The borrower could get a lower value, resulting smaller loan and pay more for that loan due to higher LTV ratio i.e. risk, if the property is better than average for the neighborhood. AVMs are biased against properties that are anything other than average in every respect.

AVMs assume average condition, location, view, quality...  (Ref 1). If you're buying a better than average home for the area, higher quality, fully remodeled, in a better location in the neighborhood with a great view, the value will come in lower than true market value with an AVM. If you're buying a home priced less than most in the area in fair condition with no view or upgrades, an AVM will give you a higher value and a higher loan amount. You could end up upside down with no equity if you accept a higher loan. 

My issue is with lenders and others who are using and promoting the false "racist white appraiser" narrative to market themselves and AVMs as less biased just to increase their profits. They are glomming onto misleading data and false media articles to use for their marketing purposes at the expense of the borrower and the reputation of appraisers. Yes, racist appraisers exist but not all valuations are based on racism and bias. Below are some quotes used by lenders and others to promote this false narrative. 

House Canary. "HouseCanary hopes its tech can help solve appraisal bias."

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/housecanary-hopes-its-tech-can-help-solve-appraisal-bias-can-it/

Their true agenda shines through in the article, "While a typical appraisal could cost $400 to $500 and take several weeks, HouseCanary says it can perform a “condition-informed evaluation” within one to four days, for $100." Who cares if it costs the lender less. The lender doesn't pass on these savings to the borrower. The lender will charge any fee they think they can get. I've had borrowers contact me and ask why their appraisal was $1,100. I only got paid $350. They also asked about the $300 charge for a review appraisal. There was no review appraisal. I've bought and sold properties. I've found plenty of junk fees that would have gone to the lender. Even if a lender tells you there are no points, appraisal fees, you are paying it in the rate. Nothing is free except maybe the AVM at least for the lender. 

An inaccuracy in the article, "There’s nothing about an appraiser that’s better than someone you’ve literally trained (to inspect, measure, take photos of a home) for a few days." 

Appraisers bring years of experience to the table. I've appraised over 20,000 properties and have taken over 1,350 hours of education. We can see major defects and other things which would negatively affect value. Someone with only a few days of training will miss a cracked foundation, water damage in the basement or attic, uneven floors, tilting walls, mold, unpermitted addition, additions not done to code, additions that don't meet basic health and safety code for the city, county, state; missing safety features, area which is not ANSI legal gross living area GLA, evidence of a meth house, manufactured house verses stick built, effect of nearby power station, industrial properties, within 500 feet of a freeway, flight path, a skim coated floor to cover uneven floors, evidence of asbestos... A licensed appraiser would probably call for inspection by a licensed expert for major issues if they saw it. This could save a buyer hundreds of thousands of dollars down the line if they read a full inspection appraisal report. There's no inspection report to read in an AVM. If you had a hybrid appraisal with a non-appraiser inspecting it, you don't get an inspection report that could tell you more about the true condition. The appraiser hasn't seen the property, comparables or exact neighborhood in a hybrid appraisal.

Appraisers can also see items which add to value such as degree of view (180 degree ocean view, peek-a-boo canyon/tree view, view of the side of an apartment building), specific location in a tract development (on a hill, cul-de-sac, busy corner, near industrial), quality of construction, specific types of very good materials... 

A typical appraisal generally doesn't take several weeks unless you're in some rural areas. This is another misnomer used to argue for cheaper AVMs. An AVM would still be faster unless you ordered a rush appraisal to be completed in 24-48 hours. A hybrid appraisal takes the same amount of time as a full appraisal. A wait of a few days for a full appraisal would be worth it to the buyer, borrower. 

BetterMortgage. Better Mortgage uses race to sell loans and promote themselves as "diverse." "Several studies have shown that people tend to subconsciously associate with their own race more positively, and 96.5% of all real estate appraisers are white. Between 2015 and 2020, appraisal gaps came up at a rate of 15.4% for Latino-majority neighborhoods, and 12.5% in areas with a majority of Black homeowners.

If an appraiser’s evaluation feels off, don’t be afraid to get a second appraisal. It also helps to work with companies that are committed to diversifying their team. Starting next month, Better will be hiring and training a pipeline of 120 in-house appraisers who are representative of the communities they serve."

The numbers above came from a Freddie Mac study that compared appraisal values to AVMs appraised values and the contract price. (It was Fannie Mae who compared to their AVMs). In some areas the appraisal values were lower than Freddie Mac's own AVMs and contracts and in other areas they were higher. The Freddie Mac study stated they don't know the cause of the differences. "First, our analysis has not yet determined the full root cause of the gap." Danny Wiley of Freddie Mac stated "We have not reached any conclusion for cause of the gaps or correlation." The gap could have many causes such as revitalizing areas and condition. AVMs assume average condition, average everything. Perhaps the homes appraised by appraisers over AVM values were in better condition than average, better than average location, better than average view, upgrades...

BetterMortgage never hired or trained those diverse appraisers. They instead soon after the press release fired 900 people then 3,000 more. It was all talk to drum up business and investors. 

https://better.com/content/what-you-should-know-about-home-appraisals/

Urban League. Urban League is not a lender but they have been promoting the same false narratives and the misleading paper because it supports their beliefs. Racism and bias exist but not all appraisers, appraisals are biased. "AVMs could correct for racial bias from appraisers evaluating homes and the conditions in majority-Black neighborhoods." "Automated valuation models, or AVMs, hold great promise for reducing the costs of and increasing the accuracy of home valuations. They allow financial institutions to estimate a home’s value with a reduced role for human opinion. By limiting the human element, estimating a home’s value should become less expensive and more accurate." "Many housing experts believed that widespread appraisal bias contributed to the housing crisis. In-person appraisals are susceptible to charges of racial discrimination and human bias."

Appraisal bias had nothing to do with the great recession. The great recession had to do with deregulation and a market bubble. Lenders offered no doc high risk loans to anyone and everyone. Some had low teaser rates which adjusted to high mortgage payments which people could not afford. After the bubble burst, values dumped and people let their homes go back to the bank. Appraisers get blamed for every financial crisis from the S&L crisis, great recession and now appraisal gaps. These issues have never been the fault of the appraiser. Appraisers don't make values. We merely report them as the messenger.  We are just the usual scapegoat. 

https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/103429/how-automated-valuation-models-can-disproportionately-affect-majority-black-neighborhoods_1.pdf

One important issue here is the alleged research upon which the "racist appraiser" narrative is based. It's just a personal paper written by Andre Perry. It was not published or peer reviewed independent research. The false summary of this paper is that most black owned homes are "appraised" for less than white owned homes by an average of $46,000 each. Appraisers and appraisals have allegedly "devalued," "stolen money" from black homeowners which is totally false.

This data was based on AVMs and not valuations by appraisers. There were no appraisers involved in the research yet people are stating this proves appraisers are racist. On top of this the data came from failed inaccurate Zillow. Everyone knows the "a" in "Zillow" stands for accuracy. Zillow is probably the least accurate AVM out there. The data actually just shows that people with less money buy and own homes which cost and are worth less than people with more money. They buy what they can afford. They never adjusted for home location or income, net worth of homeowner in the data. Research has shown that whites make and have more money than black people, POC. Income equality is the real issue which must be solved not appraisers and home valuations. Whites also buy more expensive cars. Did appraisers and Kelly Blue Book's online AVM "steal" money from cars owned by POC? No. They buy less expensive cars to begin with.

Today's political climate has clearly changed. "The country is in a time of racial reckoning, heightened by a summer of protests against systemic racism and police brutality following the death of George Floyd in police custody." Floyd's death "sparked the largest racial justice protests in the United States since the Civil Rights Movement." "According to data from various sources, the Black Lives Matter movement is now the largest movement in US history." While racism exists and must be banished from our nation the pendulum has now swung to the extreme side. In this new light anything and everything is automatically "racist" today before even looking at the facts. Some have even been weaponizing race and other issues for their own agenda. 

The other misleading information about alleged "racist appraisers" comes from false media articles. One major one which finally made it to the courts is Austin v Miller. In this widely publicized media article and lawsuit the Plaintiffs argue that using similar homes which have sold in the same neighborhood as their home to value their home is "racist" and "biased." Austins wanted the appraiser to use comps "in the whiter areas" over a mile away instead of the "black area." These are exact quotes from the lawsuit linked above. Per law and the appraisal itself values are based on similar sales in the same neighborhood. The appraiser was not biased. 

Here are a couple of other false and misleading case, Carlette Duffy in Indianapolis, Indiana and Cora Robinson in Oakland, California. Based on my research the second appraisals were incorrect and higher than market value. They used comps from superior areas much farther away from the subject. 

Every appraisal value you don't like is not the result of a racist appraiser intentionally low balling you because of your race, color, ethnicity... Full inspection appraisals are not inherently racist or biased. AVMs are not racist but they are biased against any home other than an average home. Median and average home sold prices are built into the AVM formula, the algorithm. 

Racism is very real. Some people are absolutely racist and express that in their behavior. We all must fight racism. Wasting time on a non-racist issues takes away from real issues of racism and bias. Using the false "racist biased appraiser" narrative to promote AVMs, hybrids to make money at the expense of other people is wrong. 

I read the below article published the day after I wrote this article. People are noticing the anti-appraiser agenda. Jeremy Bagott of Appraiser Blogs, Certified General Real Estate Appraiser at Bender Rosenthal Inc., former newspaper man. 

https://appraisersblogs.com/anti-appraiser-agenda-follow-the-money

References

Ref 1 Corelogic, "AVMs assume all properties are in similar average market value.condition. They cannot adjust values down for disrepair or damage. Similarly, they cannot adjust values up for good upkeep or cosmetic upgrades, such as new carpet or paint. The AVM has no knowledge of the condition of a particular property."

 https://www.corelogic.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/downloadable-docs/about-automated-valuation-models.pdf

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin DISCLAIMER: https://mary--cummins.blogspot.com/p/disclaimer-privacy-policy-for-blogs-by.html