Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Animal Advocates, Los Angeles, California

Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Animal Advocates, Los Angeles, California
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Thursday, November 21, 2024

UCLA States Los Angeles City Rezoning Plan Falls Far Short of Housing Needs by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

UCLA report chiping in: evaluation the effects of LA's citywide housing incentive program on neighborhood development potential, mary cummins, real estate appraiser, los angeles, california, zoning, housing crisis, homelessness, homeless, rezoning, city wide housing incentive program CHIP

The UCLA report "CHIPing In: Evaluating the effects of LA’s Citywide Housing Incentive Program on neighborhood development potential" states Los Angeles City rezoning plan will not provide enough housing. While the city deals with the aftermath of insufficient housing, i.e. homelessness, they are not dealing with the root cause which is an insufficient number of housing units. This reminds me of LA City's homeless pets problem. As a rescuer we say we can't adopt our way out of the problem. We need to shut off the supply of homeless pets at the source. We need the same with homeless humans. We can't just keep putting homeless in short term expensive city paid housing. We need to stop the cause of most people becoming homeless which is lack of sufficient housing. Below is the summary.

"At any given moment, thousands of people in L .A. County experience homelessness, but many thousands more teeter on its brink, living precariously in the region’s unforgiving housing market. Despite considerable public investments in supportive housing and homeless services, the county has thus far failed to reduce homelessness. This lack of progress can partly be attributed to inattention to the upstream determinants of homelessness. A combination of local, state, and federal efforts have helped a growing number of unhoused people return to stable housing, but we have made little headway combatting the conditions that put people at higher risk of homelessness in the first place. We have successfully increased the outflow from homelessness, but we have failed — so far — to reduce the inflow into homelessness."

Back in 2022 Los Angeles City approved a plan to rezone to accommodate more housing. It included rezoning some single family residential R1 zones for multifamily use i.e. two plus units.

"CHIP differs significantly from the rezoning plan proposed in the city’s certified housing element, adopted by the Los Angeles City Council in 2022. In its housing element, the city outlined strategies for allowing up to 1.3 million newunits across 15 programs, including some that would rezone properties currently zoned only for single-family detached housing. As part of CHIP, the city substantially revised these original rezone programs and removed proposed changes to single-family zones, which account for 74% of residentially zoned land in LA (Menendian et al., 2022). This departure from the adopted housing element has important implications for the city’s ability to meet itshousing production goals and to affirmatively further fair housing (AFFH) —as mandated by state and federal law —by increasing housing options in well-resourced, opportunity-rich neighborhoods."

The UCLA report states that the current CHIP approved plan will not produce enough housing to meet the city's goals or needs. The main reason is because rezoning is one thing but developers actually building more housing units in those areas is another thing. It doesn't make economic sense to build in the areas the city with these mandatory requirements. CHIP offers bonuses if developers deed restrict some units for low income. This forces developers to pay to build and subsidize housing for poor people on their privately owned land. They lose money doing this so it doesn't make economic sense. It's like telling developers they must build housing with both hands tied behind their back. The issue is NIMBYs telling the city they don't want more housing in their areas because they fear traffic, lack of parking, yadda yadda... Lower income people tell the city not to allow more housing unless they get free or almost free housing. UCLA believes in order to meet the housing needs of the city the city must go back to just allowing more housing with fewer restrictions in single family and other zones.  

I totally agree with this and have been saying this for years. Part of homelessness is lack of sufficient number of housing units. Had the city allowed more housing years ago, we'd have enough affordable housing today. Yet they continue to not allow enough housing to be built. This just makes housing even more expensive and scarce. Then when housing is too expensive they enact more rent control which makes the problem ten times worse. Rent control helps a very few people short term at the cost of loss of more housing for everyone in the future. Rent control ends up hurting everyone including tenants, cities, property owners and developers.

Below is the actual UCLA study. 

https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7xf2b3j0


Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

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Friday, November 15, 2024

AVMs Are Not Accurate in Los Angeles County Because Not All Building Square Footage is Public by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser


I was in a webinar last week with Jeff Prang the Los Angeles Property Assessor. https://mary--cummins.blogspot.com/2024/11/assessor-jeff-prang-speaks-at-appraisal.html I'm so happy that someone asked the following question. 

7. Why aren't guest houses, pool houses in the assessor records?

Jeff Prang: "They are but they're not public or online. You have to go to the office to see them. You can look at the pictometry view in the assessor site to see the outline of buildings. We have records for patios, balconies, guest houses, pool houses."

My comment: In my experience they generally only show the first building on a property. Generally second units or homes that are added later are  not in the records. I do see them sometimes by MLS sources that include size of all buildings on the site but not always. This is so important especially for 2-4 units, two homes on a lot or SFR with ADU/guest house. Many have assumed the buildings weren't permitted or legal for this reason. This means AVMs are extremely inaccurate for these properties with one building in front and say extra units, ADU, guest house in rear. You may only see 1/3 or 1/4 of the true size. An AVM would assume that only the front home exists and value it based on that size alone. 

This is of course just one reason why AVMs are inaccurate. I've written a couple of articles about the problems with AVMs in this blog. Main issue is they don't know condition, whether it exists or not, true size, number legal permitted beds/baths, upgrades, amenities, lot type, specific location in a neighborhood, view... These factors can make an AVM vary from true market value by 100%. I've seen Zillow AVM values when the property burned down years ago. I've also seen Zillow values for an old home which was demolished and replaced with a new larger home or units. Public records don't get updated until a while after new construction and Certificate of Occupancy permit. Building and Safety has to send the permits to the county assessor who then adds it to the database. 

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

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Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Donald Trump's Plan for Housing by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser Los Angeles, California

donald trump, project 2025, mary cummins, housing, real estate industry, real estate appraiser, real estate appraisal, waiver, hud,
donald trump, project 2025, mary cummins, housing, real estate industry, real estate appraiser, real estate appraisal, waiver, hud, 

What is President elect Donald Trump's plan for the housing industry and specifically real estate appraisers? A look at Project 2025 the Presidential Transition Project can give us some clues. Chapter 15 Department of Housing and Urban Development written by ex HUD head Ben Carson can give us a glimpse into the new administration's mindset. The plan actually mentioned real estate appraisals. I will only touch on a few of the programs.

1. "Immediately end the Biden Administration’s Property Appraisal and Valuation Equity (PAVE) policies and reverse any Biden Administration actions that threaten to undermine the integrity of real estate appraisals. Footnote: At a minimum, these efforts duplicate what the federal government already collects and assesses; at worst, they institute arbitrary procedures in real estate appraisal practices that undermine integrity and perversely introduce arbitrary biases into what should be an unbiased system for determining financial value."

The PAVE taskforce actually didn't really accomplish anything except furthering the false narrative of the "old white racist male" real estate appraiser. We already had mandatory bias, discrimination, ethics classes which covered fair housing. We already had appraisal appeals aka Reconsideration of Value (ROV). People could always file complaints. The point of the PAVE taskforce was to keep a campaign promise to "fight" falsely alleged "appraisal bias" against POC. Biden created a nonexistent problem so he could say he fixed it so he could get POC votes. Independent research by AEI based on government data proved no such bias, discrimination exists. There really isn't anything to roll back as the task force didn't really do anything new so no big deal here. 

I do hope that it will stop the HUD grants to NFHA which pays for false and defamatory ads in media attacking real estate appraisers. That's a huge waste of money to "fight" a problem that doesn't exist. The purpose of the ads is to recruit fake clients for NFHA so they can sue appraisers for no money settlements. Sometimes they get a few pennies from the AMC and lenders which I feel is press related extortion and blackmail. I wish appraisers could collectively sue HUD, NFHA for these defamatory actions. The hate and racism towards real estate appraisers is off the charts. The false narrative has caused false complaints and fake lawsuits besides death threats and racist name calling.

2. "Repeal climate change initiatives and spending in the department’s budget request. Footnote: Revise regulatory and subregulatory guidance, where applicable within statutory authorities, that adds unnecessary delay and costs to the construction and development of new housing and has been estimated to account for about 40 percent of new housing unit costs in multifamily housing."

I assume they would roll back the Inflation Reduction Act. It's true that the act adds a few thousand dollars to new home construction and final costs to the buyer. The clean energy initiatives do save the buyers/owners money over time. It's also good for the local clean energy industry and home values besides of course the environment. Most clean energy programs use domestic labor and supplies except maybe some solar panels so it's good for part of the local economy.

Team Trump thinks this will save consumers money and bring down housing costs. It won't but it will provide more profits for developers. They will not be trickling down the savings to consumers. Prices will stay the same but homes won't be as energy efficient.

All that said we do need to roll back some building restrictions. They increase housing costs and are the main reason we don't have enough housing. Just building more housing more easily, quickly and less expensively would help the housing crisis immensely. We just need more homes of all types. Because home and land prices have skyrocketed because of lack of sufficient housing it's almost impossible to build affordable housing. This is the direct result of government mandates and restrictions even though people love to blame "greedy" developers. They think developers should not only work for free but they should lose millions on each project for the life of the building.

We could also use some help with zoning. Developers should be able to build some 2-4 units in some single family housing areas with restrictions. Some of these 2-4 units look just like SFRs. We need more than just super expensive ADUs. We could use some 5-8 units in 2-4 zones. 

There needs to be some automatic approvals of some standard construction projects. NIMBYs have stopped most new construction just by filing complaints. This can cause projects to take up to ten years before they can even break ground. The developer has to pay for the holding cost of the project while these issues are processed. They are generally resolved by developer giving complaining neighbors land, money, and infrastructure. They are also resolved by developers giving politicians land, money, infrastructure and "favors." Developers also acquiesce to building fewer units which is the opposite of what we need.

Trump's plan for tariffs will of course increase construction costs for building supplies. Homes are already too expensive. Deportation of construction workers will cause construction costs for labor to increase dramatically. I hope he doesn't go through with these promises. I hope Trump's wealthy real estate friends talk him out of it but it didn't help tariffs during his first term.

Trump has no control over the Fed rate so he can't reduce interest rates. If anything, his tariffs will increase inflation causing rates to stay the same or even go up. The tariff caused inflation could tip us into a recession. 

Isaac Peck of WorkingRE just wrote a good article about Donald Trump's plan for the housing industry. He didn't go into interest rates, tariffs or mass deportations. He did touch on appraisal waivers, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CFPB, PAVE taskforce, housing...  on https://www.workingre.com/now-what-on-a-new-trump-administration

It will be interesting to see what the new administration will actually do for housing and real estate appraisers. I'm hoping some of his promises were just campaign rhetoric. Tariffs and deportations are such a bad idea for the real estate industry, economy and nation as a whole.

While I didn't think Kamala Harris' housing plan was that great at least it wouldn't have made things much worse. Trump's plans will make things much worse. Trump's plan for the economy and nation as a whole are much, much worse. I really hope Trump doesn't actually interfere with actual fair housing. This is why I voted for Kamala Harris but will have to deal with the Trump administration for the next four years.


Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

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Friday, November 1, 2024

Assessor Jeff Prang Speaks at Appraisal Institute Women's Initiative Committee November 1, 2024 by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

jeff prang, los angeles county, assessor, property, real estate, mary cummins, california, appraisal institute, boe, board equalization, brea, real estate appraiser, appraisal
jeff prang, los angeles county, assessor, property, real estate, mary cummins, california, appraisal institute, boe, board equalization, brea, real estate appraiser, appraisal

Speaker: Los Angeles County Assessor Jeff Prang   

Date: November 1, 2024 via ZOOM

Great presentation by Jeff Prang the head of the  Los Angeles County Assessor's Office. The slides below show his presentation. There were some good questions after his presentation.

Questions (These aren't complete.)

1. How are property tax assessment appeals processed?

He explained the process which is outlined in the assessor website. He said their backlog was 40,000 cases when he took over the department. It's down to 20,000. One issue is there are appeal agent who contact new home buyers and state they paid too much for the property. They offer to appeal the tax basis to reduce property taxes for a % of the reduction. These appraisers, attorneys file 50% of the cases a year or about 5,000 cases. They don't proceed with most cases filed. There is now a $47 application fee to reduce these frivolous appeals.

2. What is the cause of appraiser attrition in your office?

Retirement, Covid and high cost of living in Los Angeles. 

3. Are the assessor appraisers licensed by BREA?

No, they are approved by BOE, Board of Equalization. 

4. How do you know the current size of properties?

Building and Safety sends over the permits for additions.

5. What do you need to be an assessor appraiser?

Four year college degree but it can be waived if you pass the test.

6. How did Prop 19 affect your office?

We were not given instructions, tools or a program to follow. We had to create the program on our own from scratch. We are processing the requests which cover many counties.

7. Why aren't guest houses, pool houses in the assessor records?

They are but they're not public or online. You have to go to the office to see them. You can look at the pictometry view in the assessor site to see the outline of buildings. We have records for patios, balconies, guest houses, pool houses.

My comment: In my experience they generally only show the first building on a property. Generally second units are added later and they're not in the records. I do see them sometimes by MLS sources that include size of all buildings on the site but not always. Maybe that was in the past when they sold the data. Maybe some services saved the data they bought. This is so important especially for 2-4 units or SFR with ADU. Many have assumed the buildings weren't permitted or legal for this reason. This means AVMs are extremely inaccurate for these properties with one building in front and say extra units, ADU, guest house in rear. You may only see 1/3 or 1/4 of the true size. 

"The Southern California Chapter of the Appraisal Institute is proud to announce the launch of its Women's Initiative Committee (WIN).

The purpose and objective of this newly formed committee is to promote the advancement of women within the appraisal profession. In monthly Zoom meetings, we will host discussions of relevant topics, invite special guest speakers, network, and assess the unique challenges and opportunities we face.  All are welcome to attend. Appraisal Institute membership is not required, and the Zoom meetings are free of charge."

Ariana Arredondo, MAI 

Linda Whittlesey, SRA 

Jennifer Hsu, MAI 















Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

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Tuesday, October 29, 2024

FHFA Allows Alternative Valuations with Higher LTV Ratios by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser Los Angeles California

mary cummins, real estate appraiser, los angeles, california, real estate appraisal, fhfa, ltv, avm, appraisal, real estate,low income, poc, great recession, foreclosure
mary cummins, real estate appraiser, los angeles, california, real estate appraisal, fhfa, ltv, avm, appraisal, real estate,low income, poc, great recession, foreclosure

The Federal Housing Finance Agency FHFA has expanded the eligibility for alternative appraisal methods on purchase loans by increasing the allowable maximum loan-to-value (LTV) requirements. The maximum LTV ratios will increase from 80% to 90% for appraisal waivers and from 80% to 97% for inspection-based appraisal waivers. 

“To be clear, the expanded eligibility of appraisal waivers does not constitute an expansion of a credit box, but rather it will allow more first-time home buyers, and particularly low- and moderate-income first-time homebuyers, to recognize the benefits associated with appraisal waivers,” Naa Awaa Tagoe, deputy director of the division of housing mission and goals at the FHFA, said on stage."

More purchase loans will not utilize a regular inspection appraisal by a licensed real estate appraiser. They will be using non-licensed non-appraiser property inspectors and AVMs Automated Valuation Methods similar to Zillow. This means lenders can use their AVMs, in house approval departments to get higher values so they can approve more loans so they can make more money. These loans will be riskier to new buyers, investors and the government. The housing industry players have been directly lobbying the government to do this for years now under the guise of helping lower income "save money" and fighting nonexistent "appraiser bias."

Never forget the Great Recession. Real estate prices were booming and fewer lower to mid-income, first time buyers could afford to buy a home. The people complained it was discrimination against lower income and POC. There is a correlation between lower income and POC. The correlation is based on socioeconomic factors and not race. There are also plenty of lower income non POC. 

The government stepped in to "help" by lowering credit and loan requirements. More lower income first time buyers were then able to buy a home at the peak of the market for almost no money down. They had very little to no savings and were spending most of their income on home expenses. They were set up for failure by the government while lenders made lots of money. Lenders support relaxing requirements so more will qualify so they can make more money. Lenders lobby the government to reduce requirements while saying they just want to help poor people. This actually helps wealthy people at the expense of poor people just like payday loans. 

The real estate bubble of course burst and those people ended up underwater. Low teaser rate loans adjusted, some had financial emergencies and they couldn't pay their sky high mortgage, insurance, property taxes and property maintenance. It was cheaper to rent than own. The real estate market collapsed and people lost their homes in foreclosure. They lost more than just the cost of the home due to associated costs and fees. The psychological effect on the families was devastating. Oddly enough the people and government blamed appraisers even though it was the fault of the government and the bubble bust real estate market driven by buyer demand. Appraisers just report the market. We don't set it.

Today we're in a similar though slightly different situation. We're in another real estate upswing caused by previous lower interest rates and severely restricted supply due to rate lock. Everyone wants to buy a home that will appreciate 50% like they have in the last few years. They are again complaining to the government that it's discrimination against lower income and POC because they can't afford to buy a home today.

People are blaming the government for the wealth gap which they say is mainly caused by the home ownership gap. The wealth gap is mainly caused by the income gap. Owning a home alone is not the cause of the wealth gap. You need to be able to first afford to buy and own a home by having higher income, more savings and good credit. Higher income, savings, good credit must come first otherwise you just saddle yourself with debt and higher monthly costs you can't afford. You'll lose your home if you have one financial emergency.

Government did the same thing with student loans. "If you get a college degree, you'll make more money. Here are loans so you can afford to go to college." You'll also end up with $100,000 high interest debt which make it impossible to pay bills, have children, start a business or save to own a home. The correlation between having a degree and higher income is related to first being able to afford to pay for and go to college. It's not the degree itself as many people have realized. Same with owning a home.

The government again responds by lowering loan requirements. Now you can put almost nothing down and get stuck with hefty mortgage payments, rising insurance costs, high property maintenance costs and rising property taxes at the top of the market. Property taxes, insurance increase as property value increases. Insurance costs are through the roof today due to natural disasters exacerbated by climate change. The appraisal waivers and use of value acceptance, AVMs make the loans even riskier for buyers and investors. It's even riskier today as we are at the peak of the market. Two to five years ago and it would have made a little sense. The government always reduces regulations at the peak of the market because of lack of affordability and politics.

AVMs will over value lower priced properties which are generally in inferior condition, inferior locations, smaller than average, have deferred maintenance, include buyer concessions for repairs/costs... These are the properties lower income people are buying because they can afford them because they cost less. The government is again setting these people up for failure. They always do this at the peak of the market. 

I was screaming from the rooftops about this issue before the Great Recession. I'm now screaming from the mountain tops. Nothing will change. The government is hurting the people they claim they want to help.The election year campaign promises to get votes is making it worse. You know they will again blame real estate appraisers for a downswing even though we didn't appraise the properties that are most likely to be foreclosed. It's déjà vu all over again. 

https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/fhfa-announces-updates-to-enterprise-policies-on-appraisals-loan-repurchase-alternatives-and-pricing-notifications

November 1 Jeremy Bagott just wrote a good piece on this.

https://mailchi.mp/257006d81c5f/days-from-election-agencies-make-good-on-final-sop-to-housing-lobby-10896727


https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fhfa-to-allow-alternative-appraisal-methods-on-purchases-up-to-97-ltv/

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

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Monday, October 28, 2024

Appraising Homes with Solar Power Systems Class AjO by Mary Cummins


I just took the Solar PV: Technology and Valuation class offered for free by AjO Classes and sponsored by CA IOUs (California's Electric Investor Owned Utilities). It was very interesting and I learned a lot. They of course explained everything we should know about inspecting and appraising the value of a solar power systems. Then they went into using the three different approaches to value, i.e. sales comparison, cost and income. 

You need a bit of data in order to determine the value. That data isn't always readily available for the comp properties. You can use cost or income approach if there's isn't enough market data in your area. If you give most weight to sales comparison approach, cost and income data are only supportive so ...

In order to calculate the value of a solar power system (not solar thermal for heating water) you need to know if it's owned versus leased, power of the system size in kWh and age. Assume 25 year life. Leased systems add no value. You'll need to collect data such as contract with power size, original price, current price of similar new system and maybe power rates. There are free online calculators available. 

I'm pretty sure the solar people got together to try to help educate the agents and appraisers about the value of solar systems in home values. Most don't mention it or include data or value. This upsets sellers and solar companies. They want people to see the value in the systems. I was always taught to do regression analysis to see if there is a market reaction. Issue again is sufficient data. 

A few takeaways. You need a bit of data to appraise the value of a solar system. You need to know power, age of solar system of comps. As rates continue to rise the value of solar systems will increase. The cost of new solar systems has come down dramatically. If you depreciate an older system, it will probably be higher than buying new. Use the lower of the two values. People buy homes with solar systems for more than just energy cost savings. I highly recommend the class. 

"Appraisers and Realtors will advance their credibility and competency to better serve their clients with solar-powered homes.

Newly constructed homes have been required to have solar as of 2020 and existing home installations remain on an ongoing upward trend.

How much value does solar add?

What is the most essential number we need related to valuation?

While saving money is the primary motive for homeowners to invest in solar, CA building codes and energy policies are key market drivers as goals prioritize decarbonization; all-electric buildings powered by solar.

Attendees will be better equipped to represent solar assets accurately in sales, competently determine value, and be credible guides for buyers and sellers.

Course Highlights

The first question to ask about solar systems

The most important number to obtain related to valuation

How to determine value of solar PV: 3 appraisal approaches

Key points to include in listings and appraisal reports

How utility rates impact purchasing decisions and value

Components of solar systems and what to look for during inspections

Context: CA energy policy

Resilience: Solar plus storage to leverage TOU rates and power through extreme events

Future influencers: Evolving challenges in managing our power grid

Access to free online tools to inform and improve professionalism

Learning Objectives

Answer essential questions regarding the valuation of a solar system

Indentify components of solar systems

Be aware of variations in utility rates and their impact on value

Understand motives and market influencers of homeowner decisions

Determine the value of solar PV systems: 3 appraisal approaches

Accurately represent solar in listings including vital points to inform value

Stakeholder’s shared pool of knowledge to support fair valuations

Target Audience:

Real estate appraisers

Agents

Lenders

Related associates

Learning Level: Intermediate

*Course is designed for those familiar with valuation principles

Continuing Education Credits: 3 hours continuing ed. BREA, DRE, BOE "

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

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Saturday, October 12, 2024

Cause of Lack of Trees in South Los Angeles, Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser

I just read the LA Times article "Study reveals attitudes about lack of trees in South LA." FTR I live in South Los Angeles in an area that has both a lot of trees and no trees. I choose my walking route based on the streets that have trees that can provide me with sun protection and protection from the summer heat. I can feel the huge temperature difference when I walk the two blocks with no trees to get to the one block with trees. The areas in SLA with trees have nice well maintained homes. The areas without trees have less well maintained homes, apartments, commercial and industrial buildings.

My first issue with the article is it starts off with a very racist comment by an alleged community leader. It's as follows: "Our lack of trees is not an accident or coincidence. It is a result of historic patterns of discrimination, disenfranchisement and racist planning practices." This is false. There is a lot more to the history of South LA and trees. Yes, racism and discrimination exist in Los Angeles but there has never been a policy where no trees were planted in areas because of race.When you automatically accuse everyone of racism and discrimination they are less inclined to want to help. You are attacking the people from whom you are asking for help which makes no sense.

First some history. Originally this land belonged to Native Americans for tens of thousands of years. Later the Spaniards stole the land from the Native Americans calling it New Spain in 1542. Spain claimed the specific area of California in 1769 and Los Angeles was established in 1781. Mexico got their independence from Spain in 1810 and controlled the land. California became a nation in 1846 independent from Mexico. In 1850 California became a US state. California was a free state and didn't have slavery but did have Native Americans and Mexicans.

Southern California was mainly rolling hills with sage scrub and grassland. Most of South Los Angeles didn't have a lot of trees naturally. The area is mainly flat land. It was used for farming because it was flat with few trees. The few trees were near creeks and rivers or in the higher hills. We are in Sunset Climate Zones 18–24. Only very hardy small trees, shrubs grow in the flat areas naturally though we have larger oaks, sycamores, pine trees, fan palm trees... near areas with more water. We are not a forest but a drier desert area without a lot of natural trees.

Around 1880 they started building a lot of homes. Most developments cut down native plants, trees then planted a lot of non native trees around the homes and lining the streets on the parkways. Some still exist today but sadly trees don't live forever so many have died. Many trees were not good choices for our climate, drought conditions so they died. 

From 1880 to 1940 most of South LA was middle class to more affluent. Around 1900 some more expensive developments didn't allow blacks, Mexicans, Indians... The LA Sugar Hill case ended housing segregation in 1945. School segregation ended 1947. Fair Housing Act was 1968. This happened all over the entire US.

Starting around 1945 some people left South Los Angeles and moved to more affluent newer areas. The reasons are because the housing stock was getting older and dilapidated as most homes were built 1880-1920. It was caused partly by the real estate cycle of decline. People wanted to move to newer developments. It was also caused by scaremonger tactics from real estate investors who scared some white people causing "white flight." They were told their properties would be worth pennies once other people such as blacks lived near them. Property values went down and continued to go down as the area fell into disrepair which is called decline in real estate cycles. People weren't maintaining the homes or the trees.

As the property values went down making it more affordable the percentage of blacks, Latinos went up. There is a correlation between income and race. Whites make more money than blacks, Latinos. People who make more money have more money and buy more expensive homes in more expensive areas. This has nothing to do with the Planning Department. Over time more POC lived in these more affordable areas of South LA. Over time the population has become mainly Latino then white then black. LA City Census shows 64% Latino then white, black equally. It varies by poll type and specific area. Little Honduras is more Latino. 

Lower income people tend to live in cheaper smaller homes, duplexes and apartments. For this reason there is a higher density of people in lower income areas. Because of income correlation this means there are more blacks, Latinos in these areas. People buy what they can afford. There are also lots of poor whites here. This explains the people to tree ratio in the Times article. It's not racism but economics 101.

Some people, neighborhoods, cities, organizations would plant new trees as older ones died from age, bark beetles, drought, damage from utility line tree maintenance programs... Those are generally middle income areas and up in Los Angeles. Many times the homeowner, property owner planted a new tree to replace dead ones in front of their property. Legally property owners are responsible for maintaining the parkway and trees in front of their property. That is the little strip of land between the street and sidewalk. People are supposed to maintain the city trees on their parkway though the city will trim it. Many in lower income areas do not maintain the trees on the parkway. Most people are lower income tenants in these areas. Tenants don't maintain anything. Landlords don't live there and don't really care. Not as many are owner occupied homes. Property owners are the main reason there are no living trees on the parkways in those areas. 

Property taxes from specific areas generally pay for city repairs and improvements in those specific areas. These areas have lower values so they have less revenue from property and other taxes. They have less money in their budgets for tree planting. Generally politicians will pass new programs based on what the constituents want. They take polls. The people living in the areas wanted more police protection, general clean up, affordable housing, parks, school improvements... They did not want the few city dollars spent on new trees. It's what they wanted. Tenants and landlords vote equally.

After many years with no new trees planted and older ones dying there are fewer trees in South LA today. Some nonprofits and neighborhood organizations started fundraising to buy and plant trees in South LA. They planted some trees. Many were not watered or cared for and they died. Some were stolen. Others were vandalized. I've seen all of this first hand. I'd replant the ones ripped out by vagrants. I'd water some. I picked up two that were knocked over by cars, replanted and restaked them only for them to later be stolen. I saw someone load one in a truck but he had no license plate so I couldn't report it like that would have done anything anyway.

Some see new trees as a sign of "gentrification" so they destroy the trees which is crazy. Gentrification is just the real estate cycle of revitalization. It's been happening all over the world since the beginning of time. People get pushed out of more expensive areas so they move into adjacent areas which are more affordable. This causes home prices and rents to go up in those areas. Some existing tenants will have rent increases as the area improves. I've found in my area which is mainly Latino that more affluent Latinos are replacing less affluent Latinos. It has nothing to do with race or color but money. It's based solely on economics. In one case middle income Latinos moved into an area of lower income Latinos. The lower income Latinos broke windows, graffiti'd the businesses of the middle income Latinos because they didn't want their rent to rise. What really gets me is the lower income people who own the property are happy as hell to sell for 10x what they paid for it. It's only a few tenants who complain. Since the beginning of time people would just move to another area they can afford but today they protest and blame others and call people racists.

All that said we do need more trees in South Los Angeles and other areas with few trees. The City of Los Angeles has had tree planting programs called "City Trees," "Million Trees LA" for years. They give away free trees all the time. In 2006 the goal was to plan a million trees in a few years. It was not that successful because people didn't care for the trees and they died. They were also not the best trees. I saw one which was a purple potato vine bush pruned into a tree. They are ugly if you don't prune all the time and they provide no shade. I think the tree provider just wanted to make a lot of money off the city.

Any program for new trees must work with the community where they will be planted. People need to sponsor and volunteer to maintain the trees block by block. I can only handle the blocks I walk which is two miles a day. It should probably be a paid group of tree guardians which would also provide some jobs to locals. They need to talk to the homeowners and the homeless people living around the trees. The city, block club, tree group, community organization...can all work to plant and cultivate the trees but if homeless people, vagrants, others steal and destroy them, there will never be enough trees. As areas are revitalized there will be more successful tree plantings.

After I wrote this I took a walk in my area of SLA. I noticed trees were dead in front of apartment buildings, commercial buildings more than homes. Apartment and commercial building owners don't generally live at the property they own. They don't care about trees. They also probably don't realize it's their responsibility to maintain the parkway. No one enforces maintenance of the parkway or trees. One idea to aid in enforcement would be using Google maps street view. You can clearly see if there are trees just looking at the maps. They now even have green colored areas for trees on the maps. Sure Google would write a quick script to get addresses that don't have trees so notices about free trees could be sent with their property tax statements. Or maybe the city can instead of giving away free trees for people to plant on their private property they can go plant some on the parkways where they are missing. They will need to maintain them and should be drought tolerant, hardy and a type of tree people won't want to steal. No one waters the parkway in lower income areas. 

An education campaign about maintaining the parkway might help. Another idea would be to make it mandatory to have a tree of certain species on parkways every so many feet maybe 25'. Average lot is 50 wide so two trees in front of each house away from street signs, utility wires sounds good. One would just have to enforce the tree mandate. If someone doesn't plant or request to have a tree planted by the city or doesn't maintain a tree, they can be fined, have a fee added to their property tax. A professional organization can then be paid to plant and maintain trees. At the last house I owned I added a sprinkler system to my parkway. I also paid an arborist to give me advice to make my tree healthier. 

The problem with my idea is that lower income people will complain about having to pay a fine or do work to plant or maintain a tree. They will scream discrimination and blame it on the "racist" city. I have no faith that anything can be done because the people complaining about lack of trees don't want to do anything about it. They don't even want to maintain the parking strip which is their legal and financial responsibility. After following the tree issues for years I throw my hands in the air on this one.

Here is the LA Times link or you can read it for free via Yahoo news by searching the title. 

https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-10-11/there-is-no-easy-fix-study-reveals-attitudes-about-lack-of-trees-in-south-l-a


Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

DISCLAIMER: https://mary--cummins.blogspot.com/p/disclaimer-privacy-policy-for-blogs-by.html