Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Animal Advocates, Los Angeles, California

Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Animal Advocates, Los Angeles, California
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Showing posts with label market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label market. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 12, 2023

Andre Perry falsely states grocery stores are racist. More bad "research," by Mary Cummins


Andre Perry just released more false and misleading "research." Andre Perry believes that premium grocery stores are racist against black people. He "proves" his point by showing there aren't many premium grocery stores in predominantly black areas. Again, his "research" is bad science and misinterpreted results. People on the internet are using his "data" to attack grocery stores and rile up black people against whites. This is not peer reviewed or published research. Below is his linked article. 

https://www.brookings.edu/research/what-the-lack-of-premium-grocery-stores-says-about-disinvestment-in-black-neighborhoods/

Andre Perry states there are few premium grocery stores in mainly black areas. This is correlation and not causation. There are also few Louis Vuitton stores and Rolls Royce dealerships in predominantly black areas for the same reason. The reason is financial. There is research which proves whites make more money than blacks and Latinos in general. If a store chooses its location based on higher income, that area will more likely be more white than black, Latino. It's correlation and the income gap, stupid.

Premium grocery stores are in the business of making money. They want to make as much net profits as possible. They do this by locating their stores in an area which has the highest concentration of their most likely customers with the least amount of risk. They don't consider race. Below is an article about how Whole Foods chooses store locations to prove this. https://www.washingtonian.com/2015/07/14/how-whole-foods-decides-if-your-neighborhood-is-worthy/#:~:text=Whole%20Foods%20doesn't%20divulge,estate%2C%20population%20density%2C%20education%2C

From the article, "Whole Foods doesn’t divulge specifics about its real-estate decision-making, which it considers “proprietary.” Mid-Atlantic regional president Scott Allshouse at least offers this via e-mail:“We take a variety of factors into consideration, including availability and cost of real estate, population density, education, demographics, and the community’s interest in natural and organic foods. No one factor is most important.” Later in the article it states main factor is "education then commuter patterns, checking out competing grocery stores, and calculating their likely earnings."

Here's info on Trader Joe's locations. They tend to choose locations "located in cheaper parts of expensive areas." "The company is selective about new markets, taking a gander at median household income, education, population density, distribution efficiencies and labor force." " Stern and David Livingston, an expert in supermarket location research, said Trader Joe’s typically looks for median household income in excess of $100,000. The perfect storm, Livingston said, is high incomes and expensive homes within the first 2 miles of the potential site, with maybe a major university or large medical complex sprinkled on top." “They are not going to open a store based on a petition because everyone wants a Trader Joe’s,” Livingston said. “But only people who are educated and have high disposable incomes will actually support one.”

Grocery stores are not a government service or a nonprofit. They don't have to invest in poorer areas. They are a business. They don't care about race. They do care about safely making net profits. If an area has lots of potential clients but has high crime, theft, vandalism, they probably wouldn't choose it because net profits would be reduced by crime. Some shoppers might not even want to shop in a high crime area because they don't want to get mugged, robbed, car broken into, raped or killed. A good example of this is Whole Foods markets closing in a prime area of San Francisco. https://kesq.com/money/cnn-business-consumer/2023/04/11/whole-foods-closes-san-francisco-flagship-store-after-one-year-citing-crime-2/#:~:text=An%20enormous%20Whole%20Foods%20in,over%20the%20past%20six%20years. 

Instead of calling Whole Foods a racist piece of shit the County Supervisor said this about the closure. "San Francisco Board of Supervisors member Matt Dorsey said on Twitter that he was “incredibly disappointed” by the closure. “Our neighborhood waited a long time for this supermarket, but we’re also well aware of problems they’ve experienced with drug-related retail theft, adjacent drug markets, and the many safety issues related to them,” Dorsey wrote. Appearing on “CNN This Morning” Wednesday, Dorsey said he’s “seen a lot of issues of people acting out and shoplifting” at the store. “Fingers crossed we can turn things around here and I do have some optimism, but hopefully we can get this supermarket back open,” he said." Reducing crime in the area is the solution here not calling people racists. If you call Whole Foods racists, they may never want to open a store in that market area.

Per research there is a correlation between income, age, class, gender, race and increased street crime, see link below. Lower income, 15-24 age group, lower class, males, black then Latino commit most street crime per research. Lower income areas tend to have more 15-24 year olds, lower class, males, blacks and Latinos which commit more crime. More correlation. Increased crime levels is another reason why Trader Joe's would not want a store in a lower income area. Crime reduces sales, adds costs and eats into profits. https://open.lib.umn.edu/socialproblems/chapter/8-3-who-commits-crime/

Andre Perry's article looks at premium markets. Premium markets like Trader Joe's sell specialty items, organic food and higher priced items. It makes sense to be located in an area where people make more money. If you don't have a lot of money and went to Trader Joe's, you wouldn't be able to afford to buy as much food. You'd rather shop at the 99 cent store where I shop or Dollar General. There is plenty of good, healthy, affordable food at the 99 cent store. I buy beans, rice, fresh fruits, fresh vegetables at the 99 cent store at a better price than Ralphs, Trader Joe's and Whole Foods. I'd be pissed if I didn't have a 99 cent store not a Trader Joe's. Only uppity people like Andre Perry would demand a Trader Joe's. If you want to shop at Trader Joe's to buy $11 lavender flavored organic nuts, just go to one. If you can't travel, the 99 cent store is fine to buy regular nuts. People don't need specialty grocery stores. They just need to buy good affordable food. Next Perry will be whining that there's no Gucci store in low income areas.

I'm Latino and live in a predominantly Latino area because it's a poorer area in Los Angeles. We have a 99 cent store and a Ralphs. I eat good, healthy, cheap food and am happy. I don't want or need an expensive Whole Foods or Trader Joe's store. Maybe I should be like Andre Perry and yell that markets are racist against Latinos because I personally don't get what I want. Perry seems to always forget that his predominantly black areas (10% or more black) also have 90% poor Latinos, whites and others. He only cares about black people because he has a personal agenda. I read most of his book "Know your price" and he basically admits that he's racist against white people. He blames every problem on white people.

Maybe I should lie and state that all companies that don't cater to poor Latino me are racists against Latinos. I'd probably get a good following of poor angry Latinos who think all their problems are caused by others. I bet I could write a book about Latino hate and make money writing hate books, giving hate speeches and spewing racist lies to further divide our country just like Andre Perry. I would never do that because that would be dishonest and racist. Andre Perry is doing it because of his racism and he likes the money and false accolades. He needs to make more money so he can shop at more expensive Trader Joe's.

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin DISCLAIMER: https://mary--cummins.blogspot.com/p/disclaimer-privacy-policy-for-blogs-by.html

Saturday, August 10, 2013

Real estate appraisers are not derailing home sales by Mary Cummins real estate appraiser

This writer below feels that real estate appraisers are holding the market back. The writer states that we consider tax assessment values in our appraisals. No, we don't. That would not be legal or accurate. I clear up a few other misconceptions in the article. I do agree that a buyer should have an appraisal contingency clause. Generally they do in the form of loan contingency. The loan is contingent upon the appraisal. If they are paying cash, then they should have an appraisal contingency clause. I also agree that owners need to consider their improvements carefully. There are articles they can easily find which will tell an owner in different markets which improvements will give them the best return on investment. Slight kitchen remodel, good return. Full kitchen remodel, you won't get all your money back. Now if you really enjoy cooking and will enjoy your kitchen for years while you live there, then it's a good investment for you personally. Just don't expect to get every penny spent back in increased sales price.

The article is linked. My comment is beneath it.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-appraisers-are-derailing-home-sales-2013-01-25

I'm also a Certified Residential Appraiser with over 28 years of experience. I agree with Mark. We don't look at tax assessment values. They rarely reflect the true value. That's why we sometimes do appraisals for home owners so the tax assessor can adjust their tax value. It would not be legal for us to appraise a property based on its tax value.

In today's real estate sales, refinance market there are some issues with appraisals. The biggest issue is that the homes that are selling now which we use as our matched pairs comparables in our appraisals include short sales, Real Estate Owned (REO) by banks and some not so prime properties. Because the market is finally picking up, anyone who could hold onto their property for increased value would do that. People with very desirable homes are generally staying put and refinancing. They are not selling. This leaves us with few truly comparable sales.

Appraisers as per government mandate Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) and most Letters of Engagement (LOE) from Appraisal Management Companies (AMC) must use the following comparables, i.e. sales within last six months, +/- 15% difference in square footage, within one mile radius, similar age, lot size...range. We must include at least three sales and one listing. We must include a Comparative Market Analysis showing all comps we considered. We must include the range of values of all sales and listings within the last year. Our individual line item and gross adjustments can only vary by a small set percentage. We can deviate slightly from these standards only with a ton of explanation. Still, lenders frown upon it.

We also now must include form 1004MC which shows marketing conditions, i.e. absorption rates, inventory, marketing time, sale to list price ratios... All of my 1004MCs are showing very little inventory. I'm in Los Angeles, California by the way. With few properties on the market, you are getting at list if not above list sales with multiple offers. That's all fine and dandy but the property probably will not be able to appraise that high based on the rules we must follow. The resultant appraised value must fall between the range of our best matched comparables. The buyer will have to put a higher down or pay a higher rate because the loan to value ratio is higher. As things improve this will change but for now, that's the way it is.

A last note, quit blaming appraisers for the real estate booms and busts. It's human nature. Real estate is cyclical just like the stock market. I've been through three recessions. The charting is almost identical.


Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin