Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Animal Advocates, Los Angeles, California

Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Animal Advocates, Los Angeles, California
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Showing posts with label development. Show all posts
Showing posts with label development. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 23, 2022

Los Angeles Business Journal Commercial Real Estate Symposium February 23, 2022, by Mary Cummins


Los Angeles Business Journal Commercial Real Estate Symposium February 23, 2022 2:00 - 3:30 PST. My notes from the symposium are under the introduction.  

https://labusinessjournal.com/cre2022/

This year's 27th annual Commercial Real Estate Symposium & Awards event will be a virtual series of two events presented one week apart.

Part I:

Commercial Real Estate Symposium
February 23rd, 2022
2:00 PM - 3:00PM PST

Part II:

Commercial Real Estate Awards
March 2nd, 2022
2:00 PM - 3:30PM PST

Day One will take place on February 23rd. Our panel of experts will weigh in on 2022's latest developments and how the Los Angeles commercial real estate market will be impacted.

Day Two will take place on March 2nd. Our Awards program will honor the brokers of the most notable transactions in Los Angeles and recognize the most impactful projects completed within the last 12 months. In addition, each award-winning project's developer, architect, and general contractor will be honored.

Nominations closed 1/21/2022. Nomination forms for 2023 will be available in December 2022.

Below are my personal notes. They are not complete. I'm sure the video will be posted publicly when it's available. I will post a link to it here when it is. 

Video on YouTube of Webinar.

https://youtu.be/VfbLTQ-h0jQ

Main host moderator was Josh Schimmels

1. The Office Conundrum


Office and commercial space.

Prediction that in four years we'll be back to pre-pandemic levels in commercial real estate.

Many businesses are going hybrid today. 

Culver City is a hot market due to the tech and science industry.

Office market has picked up over all within the last month or so. 

Law offices. Lawyers want their own private office but will only come in three days a week. Need a place to train new associates. 

2. Industrial Trends



Asher Luzzatto was the host moderator.

Asher Luzzatto: Industrial space has been converted to creative commercial space. 

Mike Condon: Industrial is doing great. We're leasing triple net no concessions. 

Lisa Reddy: Industrial vacancy rates incredibly low.

Phillip Bond: Market is very strong for industrial in the LA region. 

Asher Luzzatto: Revitalization from older industrial to creative commercial. Evidence of this in Santa Monica near the airport. 

Phillip Bond: Building is very expensive today. Land prices are astronomical. Construction costs are high. Construction labor is high if you can find it. 

Everyone is very positive on industrial industry. Out of scale of 1-10, they are 10, 5-6. 

Mike Condon: 14 on scale of 1 to 10. Covid accelerated transition to ecommerce.  The problem is NIMBYs. 

3. Development Trends


Host, Moderator: Kofi N Nartey: What changes have you seen?

Ted Hyman: People want authentic space, creative space, science space. 

Lawrence Taylor: I work only Westside. TOC density provisions for transportation has allowed us to see redevelopment. We've always had strong demand. Seismic ordinance shows 80% of apartment bldgs in danger of collapse. Opportunity to replace, repair, rebuild the Westside. 

Valente: Wouldn't have expected to see SFRs being built to rent. 

Kofi: What response to pandemic downturn are you seeing?

Lawrence Taylor. We recover first and higher than other cities. One of the most high demand locations in the world. LA has resilience.

Valente: People now want work from home, other amenities in their home. Development along the Gold line looks good. 

Kofi: Sustainable development?

Hyman: Green building costs the same just about as regular development. It makes sense to build green. 

Alex Valente: One building has 20% delinquency, other has zero (because of pandemic eviction moratorium). They are very close to each other in downtown Los Angeles. 

Taylor: Three most important factors are location, location, location. LA is the best location. Most buy and hold. They don't sell. We are value bought and not value add. We have a waiting list of investors who want to invest. The deals are out there. People are dying every day (only way someone sells good real estate is when they die). 

Kofi: Technology and properties?

Taylor: Air filtration, smart apps controlling systems, electric car charging stations, security gates. Basically security, health and safety.

Kofi: What projects are you working on now? How are they different than five years ago?

Ted Hyman: We're focused on positive impact, sustainability and justice and equity component. 

Kofi: What is justice and equity?

Hyman: It starts with ourselves. We're working on that now. We're bringing in programs to buildings getting kids in some areas interested in science, jobs. 

Taylor: We're only buying buildings we can replace with seismic safe housing. We don't believe in enclosed shopping malls. 

Alex Valente: Required yield for investors was 5.5-6% cap rate yield to make pencil. Under 5 cap rate. It's come down. 

END

PANELISTS & TOPICS

THE OFFICE CONUNDRUM

MODERATOR

Jodie Poirier
Executive Managing Director
Colliers

Joseph Faulkner
President Brokerage
NAI Capital Commercial

Laura Stumm
Senior Managing Director
Newmark

Grafton Tanquary
Executive Vice President
CBRE

DEVELOPMENT TRENDS

MODERATOR

Kofi Nartey
Chief Executive Officer
GLOBL RED

Ted Hyman FAIA, LEED AP® BD+C
Managing Partner
ZGF

Lawrence N. Taylor
Founder & CEO
Christina

Alex Valente
Senior Vice President
Trammell Crow Company

INDUSTRIAL TRENDS

MODERATOR

Asher Luzzatto
President
The Luzzatto Company

Phillip J. Bond
Executive Vice President,
Chief Credit Officer
Farmers & Merchants Bank

Mike Condon Jr.
Vice Chairman
Cushman & Wakefield

Lisa Reddy
Vice President, Leasing Officer
Prologis

Event Sponsors



































Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin DISCLAIMER: https://mary--cummins.blogspot.com/p/disclaimer-privacy-policy-for-blogs-by.html
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Tuesday, September 7, 2021

Gentrification and Urban Renewal, the issues and solutions for an improved community. Mary Cummins


The article linked below is an interesting read about "gentrification." The article states people should be more upset about the areas not being revitalized but they're not.

"What we talk about when we talk about gentrification. The worst problems are in the neighborhoods that aren’t gentrifying." By Jerusalem Demsas@JerusalemDemsas  Sep 5, 2021.

https://www.vox.com/22629826/gentrification-definition-housing-racism-segregation-cities

The term is not even American. It was coined in 1964 by a British sociologist to describe the British "gentry" moving into working class areas. It has to do with affordability. It's not the racial issue that it's become here in the US starting in the 1990's. "Gentrification" is not a dirty word as stated by today's US media and some local community groups. 

The article states "But the core rot in American cities is not the gentrifying neighborhoods: It is exclusion, segregation, and concentrated poverty." I agree with this. The article goes on to state the exclusion, segregation and concentrated poverty is caused by unequal income. Poor people live in less expensive areas they can afford. It would make more sense to help them make more money so they can afford an apartment, living expenses, education ... This concept goes hand in hand with the recent false articles about appraisers appraising homes owned by black people for less than homes owned by white people. POC are more likely to have less money and buy less expensive homes in less expensive areas. The homes used in the data weren't even appraised by appraisers but by robots. 

The article stated "Gentrification as the juxtaposition of the haves and have-nots." I see this every day. Someone with less money moves into an area with less expensive rent. Over time the city, businesses, neighborhood groups improve the blighted area as part of urban renewal and revitalization. New parks, streets, stores open as the area is cleaned up and improved. Sometimes the people demanding that the city improve the area are the ones who end up complaining about the improvement which increases property values and corresponding rent. Long time resident property owners are happy but not the tenants. Those tenants originally drawn to the blighted area for cheap rent now may have to pay a higher rent or move. This upsets them and causes them to protest, attack new businesses and new neighbors falsely claiming the new people are intentionally destroying their culture, history and language. The renters actually just want the money, homes and stores the new people have. 

From the article, "It’s no wonder that people who have faced centuries of disinvestment grow angry as public and private money flows into their neighborhoods only after high-income, college-educated people choose to move there. Even if those people are not wholly responsible for the inequality, the blatant injustice is hard to ignore." 

This is why some Latinos in Silver Lake attacked new white owned businesses and residents. What's ironic is in that area Latinos replaced Jewish people who replaced Asians who replaced Mexicans who replaced Spaniards who replaced Native Americans after stealing their land. Which one is the bad gentrifier? At least the people who came after the Mexicans bought the land and didn't steal it. 

I'm positive that if you offered the current lower income tenants to either stop the revitalization and let the area become a more blighted but affordable slum or increase their income so they can afford a nice apartment in an improved area they would prefer to increase their income. This is the no brainer solution to the conflict. Help lower income people increase their income. The solution is not to stop urban renewal and revitalization. That would mean encouraging blight, crime and loss of housing units. From the article, "As George Washington University professor Suleiman Osman wrote in his 2011 book The Invention of Brownstone Brooklyn: “Stories abounded of renters [in Brooklyn] being pressured by landlords to leave revitalizing areas. But non-revitalizing blocks with high rates of abandonment and demolition saw rates of displacement that were just as high.”

The people moving into these less expensive areas don't just have more money. They are also more educated and different in other ways. This can cause friction with some people similar to what's happening in Texas with the California tech industry relocation. In Texas things are even worse because property tax goes up based on current market value. This means an elderly person who has lived in a house a long time now has to pay very high property taxes. They generally are forced to sell and move. At least in Los Angeles we don't have the same property tax issues. 

Gentrification isn't always about people of color being displaced by white people. Again, Austin, Texas is one example, another is England. The tech industry is more diverse. People of color and wealthier more educated white people are displacing less educated, less wealthy white people in Texas. It's not a race issue but a wealth issue. Obviously the more wealth a family has the better education the children can receive. 

A main issue of people who cry “fire, fire, gentrifier” is increased rent. That's not always the case. In Los Angeles, California we have rent control which prevents most of this. I've seen people who have stayed in their same cheap apartment since the '70's for this reason. During that time they've even bought homes which they rent to other people which doesn't really support the purpose of rent control.

"Overall, the research literature leans toward the view that gentrifying neighborhoods can lead to displacement, but they don’t have to. Gentrification can bring with it the promise of integration and sorely needed investment that can increase residents’ quality of life — but only if disadvantaged residents are set up to take part in the benefits of increased investment."

The article goes on to summarize the situation as "City by city, the message is clear: Segregation and concentrated poverty are the true blights of urban life, despite our fascination with gentrification." They're talking about segregating people with less money and not race. Here in Los Angeles and most of the US there is a correlation between people of color, immigrants and having less money. That's not the case in Texas, England ...

The article offers a solution to the real problem, "How to ethically create integrated neighborhoods. First, the economic literature is clear that increased housing production reduces rents. Second, tenant protection policies could help forestall some evictions. Third, rezoning of wealthy white segregated neighborhoods could slow the speed at which gentrifying neighborhoods change, and help tackle segregation. These types of interventions can provide a roadmap for how to ethically integrate urban neighborhoods."

By rezoning they mean allowing 2-4 units in some residential single family zones near public transportation. They're not talking about turning Beverly Hills estate neighborhoods into huge apartment buildings with only cheap studio units. Limiting homes to single family only zones is a more recent development in cities. Years ago in Los Angeles you could almost build whatever you wanted anywhere. By the 1900's the first developers and then cities limited zones to single family, 2-4 units, apartment buildings, commercial, industrial.... because that is what home buyers wanted. Some early examples are housing developments which had deed restrictions starting in 1903. The deed restrictions didn't have to do with race, color or nationalities but with the type of properties that could be built in the development. Some restrictions included quality, styles of homes, set backs, height, size... Only homes could be built in those residential developments. 

The article ends with this, “Gentrification is a cultural sphere to work out feelings of resentment around inequality. ... Those feelings aren’t to be discounted,” Gottlieb argues. “This is a manifestation of a long-running sense of ‘I am not welcomed in the city, I don’t have a right to the city.’ Sometimes those feelings can be worked out in the cultural terrain of gentrification, even indeed if the people moving in aren’t the proximate cause for them leaving.”

We need to deal with the issue of "gentrification" for what it actually is which is revitalization. People pushed out of more expensive areas move into less expensive areas. The city, businesses and community improve and revitalize those areas. The revitalization must just be done ethically while still attracting new business investment to the area. Most importantly we must help people with less money improve their financial situation. This would help all of us and our community by solving the disparity of income, home ownership rates and home values among wealthy and less wealthy people. It's not a race but a financial issue. Fighting, NIMBYism and trying to stop all development is not the answer. That would just make the situation even worse for everyone.

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin
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Friday, June 14, 2019

Cause of increase in homelessness is lack of Class B, C units for rent. Mary Cummins estate appraiser



This is the cause of the increase in homelessness right here. There are few Class B, C apartments. This is causing rent to increase at double the normal rate. If LA had only built enough units starting 30 years ago, we wouldn't have this problem today. This problem is 30+ years in the making. Land and labor are now so expensive that only luxury units (Class A) make sense to build in Los Angeles.

"Minimal availability among Class B and C apartments is generating above-trend rent growth of mid-4 to low-5 percent, well above the traditional 2-3 percent range observed in prior years."

Another cause is real estate investors buying run down Class B and C buildings, evicting tenants, renovating and turning units into Class A-/B+ units which they rent for market. The stock of cheap apartments is getting smaller and smaller. Investors can make more money buying existing run down building and renovating then renting for market rent than building new.

https://blog.marcusmillichap.com/2019/06/13/tight-labor-market-constrains-job-creation

Mary Cummins of Animal Advocates is a wildlife rehabilitator licensed by the
Mary Cummins of Animal Advocates is a wildlife rehabilitator licensed by the California Department of Fish and Game and the USDA. Mary Cummins is also a licensed real estate appraiser in Los Angeles, California.


Google+ Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary Cummins-Cobb, Mary, Cummins, Cobb, wildlife, wild, animal, rescue, wildlife rehabilitation, wildlife rehabilitator, fish, game, los angeles, california, united states, squirrel, raccoon, fox, skunk, opossum, coyote, bobcat, manual, instructor, speaker, humane, nuisance, control, pest, trap, exclude, deter, green, non-profit, nonprofit, non, profit, ill, injured, orphaned, exhibit, exhibitor, usda, united states department of agriculture, hsus, humane society, peta, ndart, humane academy, humane officer, animal legal defense fund, animal cruelty, investigation, peace officer, animal, cruelty, abuse, neglect #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit
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Sunday, April 21, 2019

Ideas to help solve the housing crisis. Here are a few ideas from others and some of my own. Mary Cummins

How to solve the housing crisis, homeless, eviction, homelessness, house, home,condo, shelter, apartment, building, mary cummins, los angeles, california, ideas, solutions
There is no doubt that California has a Housing Crisis. Not enough units have been built in the last 30 years to keep up with the demand for housing. Insufficient housing has been built because of rising cost of land and construction, miles of red tape in development and  NIMBYs (not in my back yard) to name just a few causes. The article linked below has some good ideas to help solve the housing crisis. I will list all the ideas then add my own.

  • Provide resources and incentives for local governments to pay for their fair share of housing.
  • Integrating housing and transportation planning and investment.
  • Working with locals to reduce regulatory barriers to production.
  • Making state excess property available for affordable housing. 
  • Providing financial assistance to developments to ensure long-term housing affordability.
  • Recognizing that wildfire, climate change, water supplies and quality, environmental protection, efficient transportation and protecting good jobs are all involved. 
  • Change zoning restrictions so multi-family buildings can be built in other zones.
  • Expand tax incentives for below market rate housing construction.
  • Stop adding costs to the home building process with more costly laws and regulations.
  • Roll back some of the out of control building fees.
  • Allow an increase in density along transit corridors.
  • CEQA reform to make it easier and quicker to get projects approved.
  • Guarantee a living wage so wages can keep up with rent increases.
  • Train young people through union apprenticeship programs so they can earn more money.
  • Ensure new buildings are sustainable for the environment.
  • Provide rental assistance to help families secure a home.
  • Protect renters from losing their home and falling into homelessness.
  • Every city in the state must build affordable housing.
  • Allow novel housing options such as micro units, cooperatives, co-living, modular housing.
  • Increase homeowner property tax exemption which hasn't changed since 1974.
  • Reform RHNA process to increase development of homes.
  • Don't allow NIMBYs to use CEQA to stop housing projects for political reasons.
Below are some of my ideas. My basic idea is to have pre-approved plans for standard 2-8 unit two-story buildings on 50' x 100' or 150' lots which NIMBYs can't reject or even have a say in the matter after initial approval. I'm talking about sites already zoned for multi units which only have one old house which are R2+ and other zones which are grandfathered such as C2. The public can have a say in the initial approval of the cookie-cutter units but not after that. This would cut down on the holding costs from permit to occupancy certificate. It would also cut down on the architect, design fees by having the plans be in the public domain. This would make it easier and faster for building and safety inspectors to inspect. 
  • Have pre-approved plans for cookie cutter developments on R2+ standard lots for 2-8 U.
  • Have pre-approved plans for ADUs.
  • Educate poor people about how to work, save money to buy, maintain a home. 
  • Protect poor people from real estate scams. I've seen so many people get ripped off because they didn't speak English, couldn't read or write or just were uneducated and naive.
  • Inventory all vacant properties, underutilized and raw land. Work with owners to make vacant properties habitable, redevelop or sell. Same with vacant land. Other cities have done this with help from cities, developers and non-profits.
Below are some pics of new two and four unit buildings which are cookie cutters. There are a few developers building these on lots with only one old major fixer home. The first is two units, two story. The units are 3 bed, 2 bath which can house an extended family. The ones I've seen have good sized rooms so there could be two beds in each room and/or bunk beds. 


Below is a four unit building. These are plain buildings that meet strict city of Los Angeles building and safety building codes. There should be one plan for properties with an alley which has parking in the rear and properties which don't have an alley and will need a driveway to garages in rear.  

I also believe the city, county, state should do an analysis of the current housing stock. It should include a list of vacant land suitable for housing, under developed properties and properties with inhabitable structures. Plans should be made to give the owners incentives to rehab, develop or rehab the properties. Other cities such as South Bend, Indiana has done this with success.

Government should also look at the various properties and their zones. Perhaps some non-residential zoned land could be used to build multi-family. Maybe some areas zoned R1 which already have some multi-family can be rezoned for R1.5 or R2 uses. Perhaps people with R1 properties should be allowed to legally rent out the individual rooms to different individuals. People are already doing this illegally. If it were legal, there could be regulations to make sure the housing is safe and the tenant is protected. Generally if you share a kitchen in a home, you're not a tenant. You could be evicted with no notice. I'm sure there are many more ideas out there. I welcome a multi-prong approach to help solve the housing crisis.

Let me add a list of things that won't help the housing crisis. In fact these things have caused and made the housing crisis much worse.

  • Rent control. This will cause landlords to remove units from the market. It will cause developers to buy run down buildings, either demolish or do major renovations, pass that through to the tenant who can't afford it and tenant will have to leave. Rent control makes things worse. Developers won't build if they think the buildings could have rent control. As rents rise so do landlords property tax, insurance, supplies, labor, permits, maintenance...
  • Yelling "gentrification" and attacking developers, development as "evil" because the rent has risen for some tenants in some buildings. "Gentrification" is actually a real estate cycle called "revitalization." It's not a dirty word. I wrote an article about it here. If you don't revitalize the area, you create slums. Revitalization creates jobs, causes wages to increase, adds living units, improves the neighborhood, increases value of real estate, increases revenue to businesses, the city, county, state and federal government. More jobs, more homes are created for each tenant who must leave a building for redevelopment. The tenant gets relocation fees in the thousands. Notice property owners are fine with property values increasing. It's only the tenants who are not. Notice offices, retail stores, restaurants have to move. They realize it's just economics and move. DTLA artists moved from those artist lofts to lofts in Long Beach. When Long Beach became more expensive they move to lofts in Santa Ana. If you want low rent, you have to live in a low rent area. 
  • Building condo units for poor people to buy under market value. When the value of the unit increases, they will want to sell for profit. Some don't allow the owners to sell for profit. When they don't, the owners refinance all of the equity out of the property. Most end up in foreclosure because they can't sell the condo for market i.e. more than their new loan. These people didn't have enough money or income to buy a home. They are set up to fail and lose their home. I've seen this happen repeatedly. The owners also stop paying HOA dues as the complexes fall apart. This is one of Bernie Sanders ideas so is rent control and yelling "gentrification." He needs a real estate consultant because all of his ideas fail in real life. I've been in real estate since 1983, over 35 years. I watched rent control in BH, WH, SM and LA. It failed. 

https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/opinion-influencers/article229271379.html

Mary Cummins of Animal Advocates is a wildlife rehabilitator licensed by the
Mary Cummins of Animal Advocates is a wildlife rehabilitator licensed by the California Department of Fish and Game and the USDA. Mary Cummins is also a licensed real estate appraiser in Los Angeles, California.


Google+ Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary Cummins-Cobb, Mary, Cummins, Cobb, wildlife, wild, animal, rescue, wildlife rehabilitation, wildlife rehabilitator, fish, game, los angeles, california, united states, squirrel, raccoon, fox, skunk, opossum, coyote, bobcat, manual, instructor, speaker, humane, nuisance, control, pest, trap, exclude, deter, green, non-profit, nonprofit, non, profit, ill, injured, orphaned, exhibit, exhibitor, usda, united states department of agriculture, hsus, humane society, peta, ndart, humane academy, humane officer, animal legal defense fund, animal cruelty, investigation, peace officer, animal, cruelty, abuse, neglect #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit
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