Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Real Estate Appraisal, Los Angeles, California, Mary Cummins.

Mary Cummins is a real estate appraiser in Los Angeles, California with 38+ years of experience. Cummins provides real estate appraisals for banks, lenders, mortgage brokers, Appraisal Management Companies (AMCs), lawyers, Courts, factors and private parties for lending, lawsuits, probate, estate planning, divorce and all types of litigation. Cummins provides 1004, 1073, 1025 and other form reports, narrative reports and historical appraisals besides real estate research and appraisal advice.

Showing posts with label appraisal institute. Show all posts

Friday, December 13, 2024

Appraisal Institute States FHFA Study is Deeply Flawed, Comments by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

Appraisal Institute states FHFA "study" is flawed. The "study" also used the Zillow Home Value Index aka Zestimate which includes tax assessor data, MLS listings, public data, info provided by alleged property owners... The data, analysis and conclusions are all flawed. GIGO, Garbage In Garbage Out. No one would ever publish their paper in a peer reviewed journal for those reasons yet the government sends it out as "factual research." Biased. #appraisalinstitute #FHFA #zillow #zestimatefails #Zestimate #marycummins #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal

From the article.

"A study on the use of time adjustments by appraisers conducted by two researchers at the Federal Housing Finance Agency in November contains serious flaws that misrepresent the appraisal process and further demonize the appraisal profession regarding racial bias. The study, Underappraisal Disparities and Time Adjustments to Comparable Sales Prices in Mortgage Appraisals, contends appraised values often fail to reflect rapidly increasing home prices in competitive markets. It further casts housing equity concerns, claiming that time adjustments are used less in curing “underappraisal” in majority Black and Hispanic neighborhoods than in major White neighborhoods. The study suggests appraisers should use automated valuation models and lenders should randomly assign appraisal orders to mitigate bias.

For one, the assumption that appraisals should perfectly mirror the pace of rising market prices oversimplifies the role of appraisers and the appraisal process. The study does not sufficiently account for the complexity of making time adjustments in markets with uneven price growth or where transaction volumes are low, limiting the availability of comparable sales.

The study also interprets caution by appraisers as “underappraisal,” when this may represent a prudent check against market volatility. In rapidly appreciating markets, appraisals may appear low compared to contract prices, but this could serve as a risk-mitigation tool, in protecting buyers from overpaying during speculative bubbles.

Further, the research ignores critical dynamics of the appraisal process in how comparable sales may be accounted for by appraisers in the narrative section of appraisals. For example, in some markets, a market change might occur with an increase of as much as 1% per month. Therefore, a comparable sale that is as recent as 2 or 3 months ago, could require a 2% or 3% positive adjustment to the sale price. On the other hand, with a market that is moving at a mere 3% a year, then a three-month old sale would correspond to only a .75% adjustment. An appraiser might well not apply such adjustment, as it could be argued as being of virtual rounding error. An appraiser might well handle the issue in the reconciliation of the three to four or more comparable sales presented in the sales comparison approach, which is completely overlooked by the study.

There may be a myriad of other factors at play. For instance, and for whatever reason, an appraiser’s analysis could indicate that one of the comparable sales sold on the “high” side. Applying a time adjustment for an above-the-market sale, while requiring explanation, might not be appropriate at all.

The study also leans heavily on the use of automated valuation model information from Zillow, which has its own credibility and accuracy problems."

Read the rest at the link.

Link to article

https://www.appraisalinstitute.org/cmspages/newsletters/getemailbrowsercontent.ashx?issueGuid=a47d3875-adac-4c06-976f-a74cf075c4f3&recipientEmail=adomatis%40hotmail.com&hash=dee4bfd3032a0548215443494269a5ad0ce160df6bf2e9f5eb5bd5cbc41fc36a&utm_source=ainewsletter_appraisal_now_20241213_a_b&utm_campaign=ainewsletter&utm_medium=email&fbclid=IwY2xjawHJbQtleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHRhQEY41enGI_9PE2g1aIpBP89mxTLlgApt8kVLq_Amh_Gru75czg-oGFw_aem_RMT7BVcsvwnhpT-8Tkl0FA

Link to the flawed FHFA "study" "Underappraisal Disparities and Time Adjustments to Comparable Sales Prices in Mortgage Appraisals" by William M. Doerner, Scott Susin, November 2024. Working Paper 24-07

https://www.fhfa.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/wp2407.pdf

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.

Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

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Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate Services has been in real estate since 1983, over 35 years. She is licensed by the Bureau of Real Estate Appraisers. Mary Cummins was an agent and broker licensed with the California Department of Real Estate selling residential income, commercial buildings, raw land and homes for Merrill Lynch Realty in Beverly Hills and Westside Properties in Los Angeles before concentrating on appraisals. Mary Cummins currently provides real estate appraisals, expert witness testimony, historical research, legal real estate research for mortgage brokers, banks, lawyers, factors, insurance companies, financial consultants and private individuals. Mary Cummins was born and raised in Southern California. Cummins attended Beverly Hills Good Shepherd Catholic School and Beverly Hills High School. Besides being on the Dean's list, Mary Cummins was a top ten national swimmer and competed on the men's water polo team. Mary Cummins began college at the age of 15 attending the University of Southern California on scholarship, majoring in Psychology/Sociology. http://www.animaladvocates.us http://www.facebook.com/AnimalAdvocatesUSA

Friday, November 1, 2024

Assessor Jeff Prang Speaks at Appraisal Institute Women's Initiative Committee November 1, 2024 by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

jeff prang, los angeles county, assessor, property, real estate, mary cummins, california, appraisal institute, boe, board equalization, brea, real estate appraiser, appraisal

Speaker: Los Angeles County Assessor Jeff Prang

Date: November 1, 2024 via ZOOM

Great presentation by Jeff Prang the head of the Los Angeles County Assessor's Office. The slides below show his presentation. There were some good questions after his presentation.

Questions (These aren't complete.)

1. How are property tax assessment appeals processed?

He explained the process which is outlined in the assessor website. He said their backlog was 40,000 cases when he took over the department. It's down to 20,000. One issue is there are appeal agent who contact new home buyers and state they paid too much for the property. They offer to appeal the tax basis to reduce property taxes for a % of the reduction. These appraisers, attorneys file 50% of the cases a year or about 5,000 cases. They don't proceed with most cases filed. There is now a $47 application fee to reduce these frivolous appeals.

2. What is the cause of appraiser attrition in your office?

Retirement, Covid and high cost of living in Los Angeles.

3. Are the assessor appraisers licensed by BREA?

No, they are approved by BOE, Board of Equalization.

4. How do you know the current size of properties?

Building and Safety sends over the permits for additions.

5. What do you need to be an assessor appraiser?

Four year college degree but it can be waived if you pass the test.

6. How did Prop 19 affect your office?

We were not given instructions, tools or a program to follow. We had to create the program on our own from scratch. We are processing the requests which cover many counties.

7. Why aren't guest houses, pool houses in the assessor records?

They are but they're not public or online. You have to go to the office to see them. You can look at the pictometry view in the assessor site to see the outline of buildings. We have records for patios, balconies, guest houses, pool houses.

My comment: In my experience they generally only show the first building on a property. Generally second units are added later and they're not in the records. I do see them sometimes by MLS sources that include size of all buildings on the site but not always. Maybe that was in the past when they sold the data. Maybe some services saved the data they bought. This is so important especially for 2-4 units or SFR with ADU. Many have assumed the buildings weren't permitted or legal for this reason. This means AVMs are extremely inaccurate for these properties with one building in front and say extra units, ADU, guest house in rear. You may only see 1/3 or 1/4 of the true size.

"The Southern California Chapter of the Appraisal Institute is proud to announce the launch of its Women's Initiative Committee (WIN).

The purpose and objective of this newly formed committee is to promote the advancement of women within the appraisal profession. In monthly Zoom meetings, we will host discussions of relevant topics, invite special guest speakers, network, and assess the unique challenges and opportunities we face. All are welcome to attend. Appraisal Institute membership is not required, and the Zoom meetings are free of charge."

Ariana Arredondo, MAI

Linda Whittlesey, SRA

Jennifer Hsu, MAI

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Mary Cummins

Friday, September 13, 2024

Cindy Chance Out as CEO of Appraisal Institute, a Total Shame, by Mary Cummins

09/23/2024 More insight into the firing of Cindy Chance from the Appraisal Institute. This may explain some of what is happening. This is copy/pasted. Link to original pdf is below.

From: jamorin@me.com

Sent: Friday, February 23, 2024 9:33 AM

To: Paula Konikoff <

pkonikoff @appraisalinstitute.org

>; Adomatis, Sandra <

sadomatis@appraisalinstitute.org

Subject:

RE: Upcoming Speaking Opp

I do hope the balance of the meetings go very well. I have been refl ecting on both of your responses to my email, I feel like I did a poor job of conveying my overall concerns.

I promise this is the last exchange on this topic from me

. The last thing you need is someone sniping from the sidelines, especially when I am sure it is perceived as self-serving and anti the new CEO.

I have made it clear to you both that I am less than impressed with her negative and damaging statements that she continues to make about me and “past leadership” – which frankly includes the Board of Directors too, a concept apparently lost on them. I had hoped that my not-so-subtle plea to you both to have her tone down the rhetoric would have been met with a ceasing of the actions. To my dismay, it has continued as recently as the joint regional meeting this week according to several people who called me afterwards. I know that in this light the rest of what I am about to say will likely be dismissed in whole. But please read it at least once with an open mind.

As a dedicated member, I have always been proud of our collective commitment to excellence, leadership, and the advancement of our profession. This pride stems from our organization's historic emphasis on the knowledge, expertise, and contributions of its members, which has positioned us as industry leaders and earned us unparalleled respect and credibility.

Recently, however, I have observed a shift in the organizational focus that concerns me deeply. The emphasis has immediately moved away from the collective voice and leadership of our members towards a more centralized representation by our CEO. While I recognize and respect the importance of a dynamic CEO in guiding our organization, I am troubled by the potential implications of this shift. Maybe the moss has grown under my feet and the future is passing me by.

Diminishing Member Visibility

: Historically, our organization has thrived on the diverse expertise and leadership of its members. The shift towards a singular representation, primarily through the CEO, may inadvertently diminish the visibility and contributions of our member leaders. This could lead to a perception that our organization is drifting away from its member-centric ethos, which has been a cornerstone of our identity and success. Continuity is great and I think for some relationships that makes good sense, but that continuity used to be a hallmark of the elected leadership, each bring the next one on and passing the torch over the four-year service period.

Impact on Member Engagement and Value

: The strength of our organization lies in its members. Their engagement and sense of belonging are tied to seeing their leaders represent and advocate for them. When communication and representation become more centralized, it risks creating a sense of detachment and undervaluing the diverse expertise within our membership.

Long-Term Reputation and Credibility

: Our organization's reputation as an industry leader is deeply rooted in the collective knowledge and leadership of our members. A shift towards a more CEO-centric approach might raise concerns about the sustainability of this reputation. The diverse voices and insights of our member leaders have always set us apart and driven the profession forward. Being super critical, I cannot believe that either of you are enamored with the tone on the

communication ’from her desk’. They have been insulting and demeaning. Is the best message we off er someone gets stuck in a big closet when the homeowners are arguing with other? Thank God it “hasn’t cost her any friends yet” when talking about appraisers. We have members everywhere doing interesting, complex, and interesting work, work that would be perceived as important and contributing. 4.

Transparency and Communication

: The recent instances, such as the lack of timely communication about our President's involvement with a Federal agency, highlight a growing concern about transparency and inclusivity in communication. Keeping members informed and involved is essential for maintaining trust and a sense of community. Today’s Appraisal Now has no mention of a single offi cer, their travel, and meetings on behalf of the organization.

Considering these concerns, I urge a reconsideration of the current approach. It is crucial that we strike a balance that respects and harnesses the strengths of both our CEO and our member leaders. Our collective leadership, transparency, and member-focused ethos are not just our legacy but our greatest assets moving forward.

I haven’t touched on the instructor’s meeting that took place last week, but it is cause for even more concern. The dumbing down of our tests and coursework plays to the lowest common denominator. Allowing anyone to teach without the minimum amount of training is dangerous. I encourage you to talk to the mentors working on the AIPAREA program about their experiences with students who have been through our previously challenging curriculum versus those who went another route that was easier. The diff erence is stark – is that who you want to be?

I am committed to AI and its mission, and I share these thoughts with the utmost respect for all parties involved. We can continue to grow and lead our industry without losing the essence of what makes us unique and respected.

Thank you for considering my perspective. I do not want a response from either of you

– both are too busy with other eff orts on behalf of the members. I ask only if you consider these points, take a moment, and see if the pathway you are on is the right one. If you feel like it is, then Godspeed and execute to the best of your ability. I’ll know from what I see if I am a guy tilting at windmills. I am afraid the wind is blowing and the moss is growing.

Jim Amorin, CAE, MAI, SRA, AI-GRS, CDEI"

Jim Amorin was the CEO of AI until February 2023.
https://www.appraisalinstitute.org/insights-and-resources/insights/newsroom/ai-news-releases/2022-11-17-appraisal-institution-announces-resignation

He just deleted his LinkedIn page
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jimamorin/

Link to original pdf

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1720HuaQJTwYPTpZ1r4qrjKQb_FEIzgqz/view?usp=sharing

09/16/2024 Article on Biznow about Cindy Chance's departure

https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/capital-markets/appraisal-institute-ceo-terminated-following-leadership-opposition-125913

09/13/2024 Cindy Chance just commented at HousingWire.

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/appraisal-institute-fires-ceo/

"Appraisal Institute CEO fired following “secret” board meeting

Cindy Chance said she received no specific feedback from the board prior to her dismissal

Cindy Chance, the CEO of the Appraisal Institute, was terminated during what she described as a “secret board meeting” on Thursday night that she was excluded from.

The Appraisal Institute now faces a backlash from members who support Chance, a veteran nonprofit leader who joined roughly a year ago and pledged to make governance reforms and support the work of on-the-ground appraisers.

The Appraisal Institute did not respond to HousingWire’s request for comment, but in a letter to members on Friday, the trade group said that Chance is “no longer in her role,” and a search for a new leader would soon begin. John Udelhofen will step in as interim CEO.

“We are committed to finding a leader who reflects the mission, vision and values of the Appraisal Institute and helps us carry forward the progress made towards our Strategic Plan goals,” Board President Sandy Adomatis wrote in a letter to members.

“We want to reassure you that we take our mission as Directors of the Appraisal Institute seriously. We are moving forward with our progress on the top goals in our Strategic Plan to modernize our education delivery and development of new materials and continue to modernize technology and offer the programs we’ve heard are most valuable for you. As is our mandate, our efforts will remain focused on recruiting and retaining member professionals. We will continue our great work with PAREA, and our efforts in the areas of diversity, equity, and inclusion that include further expansion of college and university relations.”

Chance told HousingWire on Friday that she received “no specific feedback” prior to the termination notice. She said she was terminated without cause."

"I’m happy to give you my perspective. I have been excluded from the secret board meetings and have received no specific feedback prior to the termination notice.

“Could you please provide details regarding your departure as CEO of the Appraisal Institute?”

From what I understand the Board called a secret meeting last night at which they voted to terminate me without cause. People have been saying this would happen since the Q3 board meeting. I heard about them planning to fire me through leaks and innuendo, not from the Board itself or any of the officers. I'm very proud of my work and my focus has always been the welfare of the members and the appraisal profession.

“Is it true that the board voted to terminate your position at an executive session earlier this month?”

I assume the vote happened at last night’s secret meeting, not the one on September 3rd, because I got the notice by email last night. There have been a number of special, secret meetings and there was no performance review in any legal or practical sense that I could see.

“Were there any disputes between you and the AI board? If so, what were they?”

You’d have to ask them. I’m on the record as recommending governance overhaul, but I wouldn’t call that a dispute- that was a recommendation based on my fiduciary responsibility to the organization. I was executing successfully and communicating transparently to the Board and the membership regarding my progress on our board approved goals.

“Are you considering legal action?”

I'm not one to back down in the face of injustice. Appraisers have a responsibility for the public trust - and that’s important to consider in bringing any and all issues to light.

“Who is running AI following your departure?”

I would guess the Board President and other member officers are effectively running the organization based on my observation of their central role in this drama as it unfolded. They stepped in to make significant decisions including directing staff, firing key contractors and ending partnerships, so that’s what I would expect will continue.

“What's next for you professionally?”

I hope to find a welcoming professional home where my skills and abilities can do good - preferably in my fields of expertise which are ethics, education, and real property association management."

Appraiser friends just posted that Cindy Chance is no longer the CEO of the Appraisal Institute. So much for all the stories from Appraisal Institute saying the rumor she was going to be fired is a lie. It was true. A.I. President, Sandra Adomatis, SRA, sent this message out today, 9/13/24:

“Dear all,

We are writing to inform you that as of today, September 13, Cindy Chance is no longer in her role as CEO of the Appraisal Institute. We are pleased that John Udelhofen has agreed to operate as interim CEO and look forward to working with John to ensure our mission continues unabated.

We want to reassure you that we take our mission as Directors of the Appraisal Institute seriously. We are moving forward with our progress on the top goals in our Strategic Plan to modernize our education delivery and development of new materials and continue to modernize technology and offer the programs we’ve heard are most valuable for you. As is our mandate, our efforts will remain focused on recruiting and retaining member professionals. We will continue our great work with PAREA, and our efforts in the areas of diversity, equity, and inclusion that include further expansion of college and university relations.

A project team will be established immediately to commence a search for a new CEO. We are committed to finding a leader who reflects the mission, vision and values of the Appraisal Institute and helps us carry forward the progress made towards our Strategic Plan goals.

We appreciate your continued membership in and support of the Appraisal Institute and look forward to updating you on our progress.

Your friend,

Sandra K. Adomatis signature

Sandy Adomatis, SRA"

Above is the notice from AI. Below is notice that the meeting is cancelled.

Cindy Chance announced yesterday on LinkedIn she is no longer with AI as of September 12, 2024.

"It has been a challenging and rewarding journey getting to know and defend appraisers. The pressures on the profession have impacts to consumers and the public, and I hope that people will pay increasing attention. I move on now from the Appraisal Institute, with gratitude for the many wonderful appraisers who shared their stories, described their challenges, and whom I have been deeply honored to serve."

I just noticed Cindy Chance posted this right before her notice above.

"As a 501C6 organization, the Appraisal Institute is an association dedicated to appraisers, the profession and the public. The Board has a fiduciary responsibility to act at all times in the best interests of the members and mission, and the staff and I and Chapter Executive Directors are dedicated to serving members and advancing our mission.

With that in mind, I want to remind you to please join us and make your voice heard on our annual membership meeting webinar this Friday, September 13, 2024, at 2 pm, CDT! This meeting will include the rescheduled report on the 3rd quarter regular Board of Directors meeting.

Please share!"

It included a link to the now cancelled meeting.

August 30, 2024 I sent an email to the board of directors of the Appraisal Institute.

"I was just informed that AI has proposed a motion and vote to remove CEO Cindy Chance. I believe this is not in the best interest of AI, the industry or real estate appraisers.

I was forwarded the letter written by Craig Gilbert and fully support his position. I'd just like to add that CEO Cindy Chance was a breath of fresh air at AI. I was talking to appraiser friends about more of us appraisers finally joining AI if Chance is at the helm. Chance finally spoke about important pressing issues for appraisers today. This is vital as we are in a quickly changing industry that needs a new solid direction forward. Please, reconsider this decision.

Real Estate Appraiser, Expert Witness for over 40 years
Mary Cummins
Los Angeles, California"

Email from President of the Appraisal Institute Craig Steinley September 2, 2024 denying the rumor she would be fired. This is clearly a lie.

"Hi Mary,

Thank you for reaching out and staying involved with the Appraisal Institute. I appreciate your participation and your membership – we are better off when we all work together as One Appraisal Institute.

I’m not sure why one of our members decided to post a letter about the board that lacks facts and relies on conjecture. As appraisers, we’re taught to rely on solid data before drawing conclusions. It’s disappointing that most of what was written in the posted letter is inaccurate and unsupported. #NoFactsThere

I hope you’ll stay involved and when an actual issue arises that requires us to understand our members’ recommendations, please don’t hesitate to write again.

Craig

Craig Steinley, MAI, SRA, AI-GRS, AI-RRS
2023 President of the Appraisal Institute (AI)
State-Certified General Appraiser
AQB-Certified USPAP Instructor
Providing Real Estate Appraisal and Consulting Services since 1979
605-348-0791
csteinley@appraisalinstitute.org
https://appraisalinstitute.org/about

September 4, 2024 AI posted about this publicly. "Appraisal Institute

A public announcement from Appraisal Institute President, Sandra K. Adomatis, SRA."

I also received email replies from Tom Boucher, Tina Mindemann, Elaine Ramirez and Allen Gardiner. They were polite and totally vague. Why even reply at all since the rumor was true. No reply would have made more sense.

This is so disappointing. A group of us were finally going to join AI to support Cindy Chance's new positive direction promoting appraisers and our profession. Previously I thought AI was just a group of old white men using the organization as a club. They basically kissed the government and industry players' ass to get grants, sell classes, sell books, sell seminars, sell $15,000 MAI designations and further their relationships in the industry. Now I doubt I'll ever join. I don't even want to take their free classes right now. I'm so glad now I didn't shell out money for a membership. Happy I didn't have the money when I was about to sign up last month.

The IRS 501 3c nonprofit mission of AI is to promote the appraisal industry and appraisers. They clearly are not doing that. AI is instead doing what government, politicians tell them to do instead of looking at the facts and independent research. I feel AI is promoting the false narrative of the biased old white male appraiser. They supported the PAVE task force. PAVE hasn't changed anything except adding more paperwork for appraisers. We always had to take bias, nondiscrimination training. We always had ROV Reconsiderations Of Values. PAVE was made to solve a problem that doesn't exist so politicians can say "look what we did for POC. Vote for us!" The real issue behind the wealth gap is the income gap which has nothing to do with appraisers. They need to help POC make more money so they can afford more expensive homes in more expensive areas.

I'm beyond disappointed with the Appraisal Institute.

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Mary Cummins

Thursday, August 1, 2024

Appraisal Institute AI, National Association of Realtors NAR Zoom Webinar on NAR Settlement

amy frink, mary cummins, woody fincham, jared preisler, beth graham,national association of realtors,appraisal institute,ai, nar, nar settlement, commission, concession

"The NAR Settlement: What appraisers need to know and watch for

On August 17, 2024, REALTOR® MLSs (multiple listing services) will be required to make practice changes in accordance with the National Association of Realtor (NAR) settlement, including (1): prohibiting offers of compensation on the MLS (though such offers “could [be] pursue[d] off-MLS through negotiation”).

MLS participants working with buyers must enter into written agreements with their buyers before the buyer tours a home.

What does all this mean for appraisers, the data they collect from MLSs, and the verification and reporting of that data? The unfortunate answer is that all the implications of these changes are not completely clear yet. However, our panelists are here to help make sense of what is known now and what you might be able to expect.

Panelists will discuss:

What are concessions and why they are not commissions

How are MLS Forms and policies changing in local markets and how to understand these changes

Obtaining data to verify sales in light of MLS changes

How to reflect changes in data collection in your report

What to look for in and what to ask your MLS going forward"

My notes which are super brief as I was a little busy.

Buyers and buyers agents should have been using existing buyer commission and representation contracts before the settlement. Now they are mandatory.

Sales concession vs repair cost. Sales concessions are rate buy downs, closing costs payments, anything related to finance, escrow. They are not repair costs to the property.

Homes prices and commissions will not be going down because of NAR settlement. It basically just makes things more confusing with more paperwork.

Commissions have not been 6% in many, many years. They are 1-3% since homes prices have doubled in value. The idea that the NAR Settlement will reduce commissions and home prices is false. It won't.

A few slides. Presentation was recorded. I'll post the link if it's public. I suggest watching the one hour Zoom presentation.

The slides below are in reverse order. Sorry.

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Mary Cummins

Friday, June 7, 2024

Appraisal Institute Women's Initiative Committee Meetings by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

appraisal institute, women's initiative committee, win, mary cummins, real estate appraiser, real estate appraisal, meeting, appraiser, real estate, appraisal

Just attended the Appraisal Institute Women's Initiative Committee (WIN) Zoom meeting hosted by the Southern California Chapter. Lots of great women and men at the meeting discussing the appraisal industry and women appraiser issues. There were quite a few Appraisal Institute scholarship women at the meeting. Great seeing more women join the profession. Main speaker today was Melissa Bach, MAI CRE. Lianna Ayala, Linda Whittlesey, SRA, Ariana Arredondo and over 30 others hosted and attended.

"The purpose and objective of the committee is to promote the advancement of women within the appraisal profession. In monthly Zoom meetings, we will host discussions of relevant topics, invite special guest speakers, network, and assess the unique challenges and opportunities we face. All are welcome to attend. Appraisal Institute membership is not required, and the Zoom meetings are free of charge. Meetings will be held the first Friday of the month, from 12-1pm via Zoom." Cummins Real Estate Services #appraisalinstitute #WIN #womensinitiativecommittee #marycummins #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal

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Mary Cummins

Friday, April 12, 2024

Bias Against Real Estate Appraisers by Mary Cummins

appraisal bias, cindy chance, ceo appraisal institute, mary cummins, real estate appraiser, real estate appraisal, confirmation bias, loss aversion, anchoring bias,

Interesting letter from Cindy Chance CEO of the Appraisal Institute. Basically people who automatically claim appraiser bias are they themselves biased. This is why the false narrative of the "racist white male appraiser" has gained so much traction in the media and with the public. It's gotten to the point that the government made up a fake solution to the fake appraisal bias problem to satisfy the public and garner votes for the upcoming election i.e. PAVE report. What we appraisers actually do is unbiased. We rely on data, numbers and facts only. Appraising is a math formula.

When I see some lay people claim appraiser bias I feel that they believe this 100% even though AEI's research based on government data proved this is not true. Racism and bias definitely exist. Sadly blacks, Latinos and others have been and continue to be discriminated against in our country. It appears to be human nature or confirmation bias to assume that past biased behavior will always be repeated. I took the mandatory class on bias for my license. People will automatically assume anything they don't like MUST BE the result of racism, discrimination and bias. They will falsely assume any phrase must be code for a discriminating term like "Marin City" in the Marin case. They assumed it was code for "black area." It was just the name of the subject's city. Here's another. "Security bars must be removed from bedroom windows" must be code for "black area." No, it's California building and safety law because people can burn to death in a fire.

I've seen this in many areas besides appraisals. A black woman said a white man told her to smile. She claimed he was racist wanting her to smile like old black minstrels to entertain him. I told her that all men tell all women to smile. I've been told the same in the past and my skin is white. It's not about racism but control, harassment, flirting... Because the woman was black she automatically assumed it was only because she was black.

Now that we know that the public is biased against real estate appraisers what do we do about it? Hopefully the next parts of this letter will answer those questions. We know Automated Valuation Methods AVMs are not the answer. They are more biased than human appraisers because they don't have all the information needed to do a full valuation. They don't know condition, upgrades, lot type, view, specific location in a neighborhood or if the home even exists. Zillow doesn't even use nearby comps if there are no recent ones of a similar size. They'll go two miles away into a neighborhood worth twice as much to find recent, similar sized homes. I have my own suggestions that may help a little.

Write your appraisal report knowing biased lay people will be reading and sharing it publicly. Don't use abbreviations or subjective terms. Explain everything in clear simple language at a fifth grade reading level like most newspapers. Show your math. Include your regression charts if necessary. This is especially important if the subject doesn't conform to the median home in the area. I've noticed most of the big media cases of alleged appraiser bias were nonconforming homes with major issues on the edge of two very different neighborhoods. Of course they wanted their home to be worth as much as the larger, upgraded homes with views in a different neighborhood that sells for twice as much even though they initially bought it at a huge discount.

If you are given comps and they are not comparable, mention all of them in your report. They'll end up in a Reconsideration of Value ROV anyway. Specifically state why they are not comparable. State why they are worth more than subject, i.e. larger, fully remodeled, full ocean view, cul-de-sac, different neighborhood...

If anyone has any suggestions on how to counter bias against appraisers and their reports, please, leave a comment. This is a huge problem that affects us all.

"From Cindy's Desk

I’ve heard from many appraisers, particularly residential appraisers, that the Appraisal Institute should have done better at standing up for them by making the public aware of their skills and professional discipline. I agree. Sweeping, sensationalized claims of “bias” about our profession ignore appraisers’ core skills, ethical standards and professional disciplines. The valuer is the only party to a real estate transaction without a financial interest in its outcome; moreover, the appraiser’s duty is to uphold the public trust, by providing an unbiased, impartial opinion of value based on a rigorous process that is continually refined and improved by the profession. Appraisers are heavily regulated to ensure quality standards, held to a rigorous ethical professional code of conduct, and our SRA and MAI designations reflect the profession’s highest standards. Why then has it been difficult for appraisers to respond effectively as a profession to unfair accusations of bias?

One reason is that claims of bias are antithetical to what appraisers do. (In case you’re interested, philosophers and linguists call this a “failure of presupposition,” and it is hard to address because it assumes something that is not actually the case.) As of now, the public is hearing from the media and politicians about a certain terrible kind of bias. What they need to know is that professional real estate appraisal has long been built on eliminating all kinds of irrational bias. Appraisers, ironically, have been ahead of the curve in working continuously to identify and eliminate every kind of bias from their professional analysis.

Thanks to Daniel Kahneman, who died recently at the age of 90, and his partner Amos Tversky, the scientific community has recognized for over half a century that there is a normal human tendency toward bias, which they termed “cognitive bias.” Their research showed that cognitive bias is part of the way all our brains work normally. In fact, our survival depends upon it.

These Nobel Prize winners (followed by several more in the following decades) demonstrated that our rationality is a myth and bias is the norm, and it has been a good thing for humans, evolutionarily speaking, because bias allows us to not have to think too much in cases where a quick judgment increases our odds of survival. Roughly defined as “any predictable error that inclines your judgment in a particular direction,” bias is a natural feature of the way humans think.

It’s easy to recognize some of our most common biases that reflect what is “normal.” We are naturally more averse (two times more!) to negative consequences than we are attracted to positive consequences. This is called “loss aversion,” which helps explain why we don’t like to change, even when things are going poorly. Being twice as likely to avoid downside as to pursue upside helped kept us away from poison plants and cliff edges, but it also often keeps us from pursuing the best courses of action. There are many, many such examples of normal (not good, but normal and understandable) cognitive bias, including “anchoring bias,” the tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information one receives, “availability heuristic,” our tendency to overestimate the importance of information we remember easily, and “confirmation bias,” the tendency to focus on information that confirms our pre-existing hypothesis.

Cognitive bias is powerful and can only be managed through the application of methodologies and procedures that require disciplined analysis of data and information (sound familiar, appraisers?). In fact, cognitive bias is why we depend on professionals trained to be unbiased specifically where our proneness to irrationality could create serious problems, such as science, finance, and economics. Appraisers’ impartial analysis protects the public from our hard-wired, everyday biases that would undermine the healthy function of the real estate industry.

Appraisers are essential to a healthy economy because there are all kinds of opportunities for cognitive bias to infect real property valuation; real estate is a context ripe for “loss aversion,” “anchoring bias,” ”availability bias,” “conformity bias” or “conflict avoidance,” to name a few. Appraisers are trained not to fall into these irrationality traps. Appraisers are continually trained to adjust their opinions of value based on data and professional discipline, precisely to avoid cognitive biases to which homeowners, loan officers, and all of us are susceptible. And in case you think machine learning and AI will save us, it is worth noting that AVMs and AI-generated results are not more rational; on the contrary, machines proliferate biases reliably, that is, unless there are educated appraisers who are regularly producing inputs to correct them.

In reality, appraisers have a great story to tell, but we have a long way to go to refocus the terribly flawed “appraiser bias” narrative onto facts and science. With facts, fairness and science all on our side, and with your help, my team and I have committed to advocacy and communications built on each member’s commitment to doing the right thing, the right way.

There’s more to say about bias. That’s why this is part 1 of a 3-part series on bias…next up…the normal biases of homeowners and loan officers, “noise” and bias, cultural bias, the GSEs, and “banned words”…

Cindy Chance, CEO of the Appraisal Institute"

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Mary Cummins

Friday, January 12, 2024

McKissock Learning Will No Longer Offer PAREA Due to Costs by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

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PAREA is the Practical Applications of Real Estate Appraisal. In order to become a licensed appraiser you currently need about a year or two and 1,000-1,500 hours of training experience as a trainee with another licensed and generally certified appraiser. You also need basic classes and other requirements. Because it was so difficult to find mentors willing to train trainees for free the government allowed the PAREA training alternative to hours with a live mentor. Real Estate Appraiser education provider McKissock Learning was going to be one of the government approved companies, organizations offering PAREA training. The Appraisal Institute is another organization offering the training.

Yesterday January 12, 2024 McKissock emailed people who were interested in the program that they would no longer be offering the PAREA program. See below email.

"Happy New Year to you and yours. We hope this letter finds you well. With a strong commitment to responsibility and transparency, we want to inform you about a significant decision regarding the McKissock PAREA (Practical Applications of Real Estate Appraisal) project.

After careful consideration and thorough evaluation of various factors, we have made the difficult decision to cancel the McKissock PAREA project. We understand that this news may be unexpected, and we want to provide you with a clear understanding of our reasoning and the steps we are taking moving forward.

One of the primary factors contributing to the cancellation is the substantial resource cost required to provide a product of the quality we envisioned. In our pursuit to deliver a premium solution, the associated costs exceeded initial estimates, resulting in a higher-end price to our customers. Regrettably, we recognize that this higher cost would inadvertently create a new barrier to entry into the appraisal profession – specifically, a financial obstacle."

The cost of the program was always a major issue and hurdle to entrance in the field. You couldn't even start the program without first paying for and taking $1,700 worth of McKissock classes. The Appraisal Institute stated the PAREA program would cost about $10,000 per a July 19, 2023 webinar. All of the training would be online. There would be no in person mentorship.

From a monetary point of view the expensive cost of the training might be a total waste without real mentorship. This is not a trial an error occupation. You need someone training you in the beginning. You won't make any money if you don't know what you're doing. The only people who could end up making money from the training were possibly the training organization. They'd make money from government grants, nonprofit grants and class fees from paying students. It'd be like those worthless online degrees.

Another main problem is the real estate appraisal market today is at its absolute lowest point. There's very little lending work. The main cause is our current high interest rates. No one is selling if they have to buy another home. Why lose a 2.5% interest rate and triple your monthly mortgage at 7.5% or so. No one would want to refinance for the same reason. Sales volume is at its lowest in about 20 years per Ryan Lundquist's fantastic statistics. I've seen the same in Los Angeles, California.

Another even bigger issue is the use of live appraisers has been decreasing recently because of appraisal waivers, AVMs (Automated Valuation Methods) and hybrid type appraisals. Even though a live appraiser is used for part of the hybrid appraisal they aren't being paid as much as a full appraisal, i.e. $75-$165 vs $300-$500. The few full inspection appraisals done by live appraisers are very complex appraisals which only appraisers with many years experience are allowed to do. There's just not as much work today for anyone.

Previously the government said there were not enough appraisers and now there are definitely way too many. If you look at Facebook appraiser groups, everyone is hurting. Many have retired or had to get side gigs. If a fully trained and experienced appraiser of 20 years can't get work, a newbie has no chance at making enough money to survive. Even people with 20-40 years of experience are quitting due to lack of work.

You'd have to really be an idiot to shell out $1,700 for basic classes, $10,000 for PAREA, $6,000 appraisal costs first year just to make no money. Few can afford that upfront cost even if they could make the money back in a year or two. Another huge hurdle is lenders only use appraisers with three years minimum experience. No one would hire you fresh out of PAREA.

I believe that McKissock realized there probably won't be enough people willing to pay for the classes at the moment to justify their training costs. They couldn't make enough profit off the program today. Even if the government and nonprofits offered grants to pay for the training the students probably wouldn't get any work from the program. No one would be happy. There would be a lot of online complaints.

I'm actually glad McKissock is not continuing with the program at this time for the sake of the potential new appraisers. Now is not the time to start out as an appraiser because of the market conditions. I would at a minimum wait until things rebound when rates go down. Maybe by then there will be an affordable PAREA program maybe subsidized by the government for people who can't afford it. You'd still need live experience and will have to deal with all the other issues noted above but it'd be better than what we have today.

*FTR I've been taking classes with McKissock since they first started around 1990. Back in the day they only offered in person classes taught by the McKissock's out of a small classroom in Orange County, California. Today I take bundled classes with Calypso because they're cheaper.

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Mary Cummins

Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Animal Advocates, Los Angeles, California

Friday, December 13, 2024

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