Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Real Estate Appraisal, Los Angeles, California, Mary Cummins.

Mary Cummins is a real estate appraiser in Los Angeles, California with 38+ years of experience. Cummins provides real estate appraisals for banks, lenders, mortgage brokers, Appraisal Management Companies (AMCs), lawyers, Courts, factors and private parties for lending, lawsuits, probate, estate planning, divorce and all types of litigation. Cummins provides 1004, 1073, 1025 and other form reports, narrative reports and historical appraisals besides real estate research and appraisal advice.

Sunday, November 24, 2024

What will Donald Trump, Scott Turner do to HUD? Same thing Trump Did First Term, Cut the Budget and Programs, by Mary Cummins

Photo: Wikipedia, Donald Trump, Scott Turner, HUD, Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser,

Donald Trump nominated ex-football player, motivational speaker and Pastor Scott Turner to be the head of HUD. Scott was a Texas State Representative for the 33rd District for two terms. He was also on Trump's White House Opportunity and Revitalization Council during Trump's first term. In 2023 he was hired as Chief Visionary Officer (lobbyist?) at JPI a real estate company.

When Turner was on the White House Opportunity and Revitalization Council he co-produced a one year report. That report was the result of the Trump 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. It dealt mainly with plans to promote investments in Opportunity Zones. A final report released in 2020 stated they were involved in different grant programs. Trump cut the HUD budget at least 18% during his term so grant programs and funding were reduced. That appeared to be a name only PR council and report.

We can expect Trump to again cut the HUD budget. I personally feel some programs are vital and others should be cut. I'd like to suggest HUD cut the funds given to NFHA for defamatory advertisements trashing appraisers. They could also cut the funding for the improper sting operations and lawsuits regarding appraisers. They should also look into the false and frivolous appraiser complaints. Hire an independent real estate appraisal company to investigate to see if the values in question were market value or not. If they weren't, investigate. If they were, dismiss the complaint and send an all clear letter. So much money was wasted on these worthless programs that did not find appraiser bias.

Trump in his Project 2025 plan stated he'd get rid of PAVE. The PAVE Task Force is over and it didn't really change anything. The main purpose was to get black, Latino and lower income votes and to keep campaign promises about solving made up problems. Joe Biden lied and said appraisal bias was a huge problem causing wealth inequality. The real problem is income inequality causing wealth inequality. Biden said he alone could fix the fake problem if they voted for him. The fake problem didn't exist.

We were already doing all of the suggested PAVE programs. We already had appraisal appeal aka Reconsideration of Value ROV processes. We already had mandatory bias, discrimination and fair housing education. We already had a complaint process. We were already planning a PAREA like solution to the mentorship program problems. The PAREA program is not yet successful with only a handful of graduates at huge expense. Appraisers are almost as diverse as real estate agents. The issue is high initial cost, time and inability to make a living in the current market. This goes back to income inequality.

Most people think HUD has the power to solve the housing crisis. It does not. HUD only oversees public housing programs and government backed mortgages. They have no control or jurisdiction over the real causes of the housing crisis which is insufficient number of housing units. That problem is caused by the states, counties and cities building requirements. It's not a problem under the direct jurisdiction of the federal government.

Trump has made some suggestions for helping the housing crisis. He will most likely roll back the Inflation Reduction Act which mandated more energy efficient homes. I doubt the developers will trickle down those savings to the consumer. Trump also suggested using federal lands to build homes. Those lands aren't in areas where people want to live. The last time the government did that developers built cheap shitty homes on swamp land such as Marin City. Trump said he'll reduce interest rates but he has no control over that Department.

It will be interesting to see what Donald Trump and Scott Turner actually do with HUD. I predict they will just reduce the budget and cut programs like Trump did last time. Turner will do a lot of positive press and release a lot of positive reports while he obeys Trump and guts the Department as much as possible.

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.

Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

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Mary Cummins

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate Services has been in real estate since 1983, over 35 years. She is licensed by the Bureau of Real Estate Appraisers. Mary Cummins was an agent and broker licensed with the California Department of Real Estate selling residential income, commercial buildings, raw land and homes for Merrill Lynch Realty in Beverly Hills and Westside Properties in Los Angeles before concentrating on appraisals. Mary Cummins currently provides real estate appraisals, expert witness testimony, historical research, legal real estate research for mortgage brokers, banks, lawyers, factors, insurance companies, financial consultants and private individuals. Mary Cummins was born and raised in Southern California. Cummins attended Beverly Hills Good Shepherd Catholic School and Beverly Hills High School. Besides being on the Dean's list, Mary Cummins was a top ten national swimmer and competed on the men's water polo team. Mary Cummins began college at the age of 15 attending the University of Southern California on scholarship, majoring in Psychology/Sociology. http://www.animaladvocates.us http://www.facebook.com/AnimalAdvocatesUSA

Thursday, November 21, 2024

UCLA States Los Angeles City Rezoning Plan Falls Far Short of Housing Needs by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

UCLA report chiping in: evaluation the effects of LA's citywide housing incentive program on neighborhood development potential, mary cummins, real estate appraiser, los angeles, california, zoning, housing crisis, homelessness, homeless, rezoning, city wide housing incentive program CHIP

The UCLA report "CHIPing In: Evaluating the effects of LA’s Citywide Housing Incentive Program on neighborhood development potential" states Los Angeles City rezoning plan will not provide enough housing. While the city deals with the aftermath of insufficient housing, i.e. homelessness, they are not dealing with the root cause which is an insufficient number of housing units. This reminds me of LA City's homeless pets problem. As a rescuer we say we can't adopt our way out of the problem. We need to shut off the supply of homeless pets at the source. We need the same with homeless humans. We can't just keep putting homeless in short term expensive city paid housing. We need to stop the cause of most people becoming homeless which is lack of sufficient housing. Below is the summary.

"At any given moment, thousands of people in L .A. County experience homelessness, but many thousands more teeter on its brink, living precariously in the region’s unforgiving housing market. Despite considerable public investments in supportive housing and homeless services, the county has thus far failed to reduce homelessness. This lack of progress can partly be attributed to inattention to the upstream determinants of homelessness. A combination of local, state, and federal efforts have helped a growing number of unhoused people return to stable housing, but we have made little headway combatting the conditions that put people at higher risk of homelessness in the first place. We have successfully increased the outflow from homelessness, but we have failed — so far — to reduce the inflow into homelessness."

Back in 2022 Los Angeles City approved a plan to rezone to accommodate more housing. It included rezoning some single family residential R1 zones for multifamily use i.e. two plus units.

"CHIP differs significantly from the rezoning plan proposed in the city’s certified housing element, adopted by the Los Angeles City Council in 2022. In its housing element, the city outlined strategies for allowing up to 1.3 million newunits across 15 programs, including some that would rezone properties currently zoned only for single-family detached housing. As part of CHIP, the city substantially revised these original rezone programs and removed proposed changes to single-family zones, which account for 74% of residentially zoned land in LA (Menendian et al., 2022). This departure from the adopted housing element has important implications for the city’s ability to meet itshousing production goals and to affirmatively further fair housing (AFFH) —as mandated by state and federal law —by increasing housing options in well-resourced, opportunity-rich neighborhoods."

The UCLA report states that the current CHIP approved plan will not produce enough housing to meet the city's goals or needs. The main reason is because rezoning is one thing but developers actually building more housing units in those areas is another thing. It doesn't make economic sense to build in the areas the city with these mandatory requirements. CHIP offers bonuses if developers deed restrict some units for low income. This forces developers to pay to build and subsidize housing for poor people on their privately owned land. They lose money doing this so it doesn't make economic sense. It's like telling developers they must build housing with both hands tied behind their back. The issue is NIMBYs telling the city they don't want more housing in their areas because they fear traffic, lack of parking, yadda yadda... Lower income people tell the city not to allow more housing unless they get free or almost free housing. UCLA believes in order to meet the housing needs of the city the city must go back to just allowing more housing with fewer restrictions in single family and other zones.

I totally agree with this and have been saying this for years. Part of homelessness is lack of sufficient number of housing units. Had the city allowed more housing years ago, we'd have enough affordable housing today. Yet they continue to not allow enough housing to be built. This just makes housing even more expensive and scarce. Then when housing is too expensive they enact more rent control which makes the problem ten times worse. Rent control helps a very few people short term at the cost of loss of more housing for everyone in the future. Rent control ends up hurting everyone including tenants, cities, property owners and developers.

Below is the actual UCLA study.

https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7xf2b3j0

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Mary Cummins

Friday, November 15, 2024

AVMs Are Not Accurate in Los Angeles County Because Not All Building Square Footage is Public by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

I was in a webinar last week with Jeff Prang the Los Angeles Property Assessor. https://mary--cummins.blogspot.com/2024/11/assessor-jeff-prang-speaks-at-appraisal.html I'm so happy that someone asked the following question.

7. Why aren't guest houses, pool houses in the assessor records?

Jeff Prang: "They are but they're not public or online. You have to go to the office to see them. You can look at the pictometry view in the assessor site to see the outline of buildings. We have records for patios, balconies, guest houses, pool houses."

My comment: In my experience they generally only show the first building on a property. Generally second units or homes that are added later are not in the records. I do see them sometimes by MLS sources that include size of all buildings on the site but not always. This is so important especially for 2-4 units, two homes on a lot or SFR with ADU/guest house. Many have assumed the buildings weren't permitted or legal for this reason. This means AVMs are extremely inaccurate for these properties with one building in front and say extra units, ADU, guest house in rear. You may only see 1/3 or 1/4 of the true size. An AVM would assume that only the front home exists and value it based on that size alone.

This is of course just one reason why AVMs are inaccurate. I've written a couple of articles about the problems with AVMs in this blog. Main issue is they don't know condition, whether it exists or not, true size, number legal permitted beds/baths, upgrades, amenities, lot type, specific location in a neighborhood, view... These factors can make an AVM vary from true market value by 100%. I've seen Zillow AVM values when the property burned down years ago. I've also seen Zillow values for an old home which was demolished and replaced with a new larger home or units. Public records don't get updated until a while after new construction and Certificate of Occupancy permit. Building and Safety has to send the permits to the county assessor who then adds it to the database.

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Mary Cummins

Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Donald Trump's Plan for Housing by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser Los Angeles, California

donald trump, project 2025, mary cummins, housing, real estate industry, real estate appraiser, real estate appraisal, waiver, hud,

What is President elect Donald Trump's plan for the housing industry and specifically real estate appraisers? A look at Project 2025 the Presidential Transition Project can give us some clues. Chapter 15 Department of Housing and Urban Development written by ex HUD head Ben Carson can give us a glimpse into the new administration's mindset. The plan actually mentioned real estate appraisals. I will only touch on a few of the programs.

1. "Immediately end the Biden Administration’s Property Appraisal and Valuation Equity (PAVE) policies and reverse any Biden Administration actions that threaten to undermine the integrity of real estate appraisals. Footnote: At a minimum, these efforts duplicate what the federal government already collects and assesses; at worst, they institute arbitrary procedures in real estate appraisal practices that undermine integrity and perversely introduce arbitrary biases into what should be an unbiased system for determining financial value."

The PAVE taskforce actually didn't really accomplish anything except furthering the false narrative of the "old white racist male" real estate appraiser. We already had mandatory bias, discrimination, ethics classes which covered fair housing. We already had appraisal appeals aka Reconsideration of Value (ROV). People could always file complaints. The point of the PAVE taskforce was to keep a campaign promise to "fight" falsely alleged "appraisal bias" against POC. Biden created a nonexistent problem so he could say he fixed it so he could get POC votes. Independent research by AEI based on government data proved no such bias, discrimination exists. There really isn't anything to roll back as the task force didn't really do anything new so no big deal here.

I do hope that it will stop the HUD grants to NFHA which pays for false and defamatory ads in media attacking real estate appraisers. That's a huge waste of money to "fight" a problem that doesn't exist. The purpose of the ads is to recruit fake clients for NFHA so they can sue appraisers for no money settlements. Sometimes they get a few pennies from the AMC and lenders which I feel is press related extortion and blackmail. I wish appraisers could collectively sue HUD, NFHA for these defamatory actions. The hate and racism towards real estate appraisers is off the charts. The false narrative has caused false complaints and fake lawsuits besides death threats and racist name calling.

2. "Repeal climate change initiatives and spending in the department’s budget request. Footnote: Revise regulatory and subregulatory guidance, where applicable within statutory authorities, that adds unnecessary delay and costs to the construction and development of new housing and has been estimated to account for about 40 percent of new housing unit costs in multifamily housing."

I assume they would roll back the Inflation Reduction Act. It's true that the act adds a few thousand dollars to new home construction and final costs to the buyer. The clean energy initiatives do save the buyers/owners money over time. It's also good for the local clean energy industry and home values besides of course the environment. Most clean energy programs use domestic labor and supplies except maybe some solar panels so it's good for part of the local economy.

Team Trump thinks this will save consumers money and bring down housing costs. It won't but it will provide more profits for developers. They will not be trickling down the savings to consumers. Prices will stay the same but homes won't be as energy efficient.

All that said we do need to roll back some building restrictions. They increase housing costs and are the main reason we don't have enough housing. Just building more housing more easily, quickly and less expensively would help the housing crisis immensely. We just need more homes of all types. Because home and land prices have skyrocketed because of lack of sufficient housing it's almost impossible to build affordable housing. This is the direct result of government mandates and restrictions even though people love to blame "greedy" developers. They think developers should not only work for free but they should lose millions on each project for the life of the building.

We could also use some help with zoning. Developers should be able to build some 2-4 units in some single family housing areas with restrictions. Some of these 2-4 units look just like SFRs. We need more than just super expensive ADUs. We could use some 5-8 units in 2-4 zones.

There needs to be some automatic approvals of some standard construction projects. NIMBYs have stopped most new construction just by filing complaints. This can cause projects to take up to ten years before they can even break ground. The developer has to pay for the holding cost of the project while these issues are processed. They are generally resolved by developer giving complaining neighbors land, money, and infrastructure. They are also resolved by developers giving politicians land, money, infrastructure and "favors." Developers also acquiesce to building fewer units which is the opposite of what we need.

Trump's plan for tariffs will of course increase construction costs for building supplies. Homes are already too expensive. Deportation of construction workers will cause construction costs for labor to increase dramatically. I hope he doesn't go through with these promises. I hope Trump's wealthy real estate friends talk him out of it but it didn't help tariffs during his first term.

Trump has no control over the Fed rate so he can't reduce interest rates. If anything, his tariffs will increase inflation causing rates to stay the same or even go up. The tariff caused inflation could tip us into a recession.

Isaac Peck of WorkingRE just wrote a good article about Donald Trump's plan for the housing industry. He didn't go into interest rates, tariffs or mass deportations. He did touch on appraisal waivers, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CFPB, PAVE taskforce, housing... on https://www.workingre.com/now-what-on-a-new-trump-administration

It will be interesting to see what the new administration will actually do for housing and real estate appraisers. I'm hoping some of his promises were just campaign rhetoric. Tariffs and deportations are such a bad idea for the real estate industry, economy and nation as a whole.

While I didn't think Kamala Harris' housing plan was that great at least it wouldn't have made things much worse. Trump's plans will make things much worse. Trump's plan for the economy and nation as a whole are much, much worse. I really hope Trump doesn't actually interfere with actual fair housing. This is why I voted for Kamala Harris but will have to deal with the Trump administration for the next four years.

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Mary Cummins

Friday, November 1, 2024

Assessor Jeff Prang Speaks at Appraisal Institute Women's Initiative Committee November 1, 2024 by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

jeff prang, los angeles county, assessor, property, real estate, mary cummins, california, appraisal institute, boe, board equalization, brea, real estate appraiser, appraisal

Speaker: Los Angeles County Assessor Jeff Prang

Date: November 1, 2024 via ZOOM

Great presentation by Jeff Prang the head of the Los Angeles County Assessor's Office. The slides below show his presentation. There were some good questions after his presentation.

Questions (These aren't complete.)

1. How are property tax assessment appeals processed?

He explained the process which is outlined in the assessor website. He said their backlog was 40,000 cases when he took over the department. It's down to 20,000. One issue is there are appeal agent who contact new home buyers and state they paid too much for the property. They offer to appeal the tax basis to reduce property taxes for a % of the reduction. These appraisers, attorneys file 50% of the cases a year or about 5,000 cases. They don't proceed with most cases filed. There is now a $47 application fee to reduce these frivolous appeals.

2. What is the cause of appraiser attrition in your office?

Retirement, Covid and high cost of living in Los Angeles.

3. Are the assessor appraisers licensed by BREA?

No, they are approved by BOE, Board of Equalization.

4. How do you know the current size of properties?

Building and Safety sends over the permits for additions.

5. What do you need to be an assessor appraiser?

Four year college degree but it can be waived if you pass the test.

6. How did Prop 19 affect your office?

We were not given instructions, tools or a program to follow. We had to create the program on our own from scratch. We are processing the requests which cover many counties.

7. Why aren't guest houses, pool houses in the assessor records?

They are but they're not public or online. You have to go to the office to see them. You can look at the pictometry view in the assessor site to see the outline of buildings. We have records for patios, balconies, guest houses, pool houses.

My comment: In my experience they generally only show the first building on a property. Generally second units are added later and they're not in the records. I do see them sometimes by MLS sources that include size of all buildings on the site but not always. Maybe that was in the past when they sold the data. Maybe some services saved the data they bought. This is so important especially for 2-4 units or SFR with ADU. Many have assumed the buildings weren't permitted or legal for this reason. This means AVMs are extremely inaccurate for these properties with one building in front and say extra units, ADU, guest house in rear. You may only see 1/3 or 1/4 of the true size.

"The Southern California Chapter of the Appraisal Institute is proud to announce the launch of its Women's Initiative Committee (WIN).

The purpose and objective of this newly formed committee is to promote the advancement of women within the appraisal profession. In monthly Zoom meetings, we will host discussions of relevant topics, invite special guest speakers, network, and assess the unique challenges and opportunities we face. All are welcome to attend. Appraisal Institute membership is not required, and the Zoom meetings are free of charge."

Ariana Arredondo, MAI

Linda Whittlesey, SRA

Jennifer Hsu, MAI