Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Real Estate Appraisal, Los Angeles, California, Mary Cummins.

Mary Cummins is a real estate appraiser in Los Angeles, California with 38+ years of experience. Cummins provides real estate appraisals for banks, lenders, mortgage brokers, Appraisal Management Companies (AMCs), lawyers, Courts, factors and private parties for lending, lawsuits, probate, estate planning, divorce and all types of litigation. Cummins provides 1004, 1073, 1025 and other form reports, narrative reports and historical appraisals besides real estate research and appraisal advice.

Friday, April 21, 2023

Tucker Carlson speaks the truth about real estate appraisals now?! Last show. by Mary Cummins

tucker carlson, tucker carlson tonight, joe biden, kamala harris, marcia fudge, mary cummins, real estate appraiser, real estate appraisal, bias, racist, white supremacist, fico, credit

Tucker Carlson: The Biden admin is punishing Americans with high credit scores. Fox News host Tucker Carlson reacts to a new Biden administration rule that will punish Americans with good credit on 'Tucker Carlson Tonight.' tucker carlson, tucker carlson tonight, joe biden, kamala harris, marcia fudge, mary cummins, real estate appraiser, real estate appraisal, bias, racist, white supremacist, fico, credit, fox news @tuckercarlson

UPDATE: And a couple of days later he's gone from FOX News. This was his last story, show. Of all stories to be his last! He was let go Monday morning. https://www.tmz.com/2023/04/24/tucker-carlson-leaving-fox-news/

ORIGINAL: Some Facebook appraisal groups are sharing this video of Tucker Carlson talking about Democrats trying to get the vote. In the video he talks about Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Marcia Fudge lying and stating that all appraisers are white supremacists who are racists against black people and devalue their homes. Tucker Carlson states they provided no evidence that this is true. While I prayed to God for a savior in the media to spread the truth about the issue Tucker Carlson sure as hell would not have been my first choice. Was there no one else available, dear Lord?!

SHOW: "Tucker Carlson: The Biden admin is punishing Americans with high credit scores. Fox News host Tucker Carlson reacts to a new Biden administration rule that will punish Americans with good credit on 'Tucker Carlson Tonight.' " April 21, 2023 https://www.foxnews.com/video/6325545406112 Real issue starts at 2:15 min into it. Text https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-biden-admins-new-rule-punish-people-high-credit-scores

Carlson says Marcia Fudge says home appraisers are white racists who lowball black homeowners. Even HUD's own data shows this is false. AEI did independent research on HUD's data and proved there is no racism in home appraisal values, see link below. He shows a clip of the CNN August 2022 interview which I wrote about. Fudge says black people have lost great wealth through the appraisal process. No, they have not. Again, AEI research ( https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/comments-on-the-pave-report/ ) proved this to the PAVE task force by debunking Andre Perry's non-peer reviewed, non-published paper ( https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/AEI-Housing-Center-Response-to-Perry-and-Rothwell-2021-final.pdf?x91208 ) . The difference in value between white and black, brown owned homes is caused by the income gap. Whites make more money so they have more money and buy more expensive homes in more expensive areas. That's it! It's the income gap, stupid!

Marcia Fudge again offers the false anecdote about her home being worth less than her neighbor's only because she is black and the neighbor is allegedly white. This has been debunked here previously ( https://mary--cummins.blogspot.com/2022/03/pave-task-force-action-plan-from-white.html scroll to "I live in an all" ). Fudge's home is much older, of average quality and sits on the main highway. The homes across the street are new, of very good quality and in a private development off the main highway. That's why the newer homes are worth more. We don't know the color of the owners of the new homes. If Fudge doesn't understand this, she should not be the head of HUD. She also shouldn't be believing Zillow Zestimates of value. We all know they are not accurate.

Carlson said Kamala Harris in March 2022 was talking about the Home Appraisal Workforce (she meant PAVE task force ). She said appraisers are mainly white and biased. She said appraisers now must take training on fair housing and bias because of her and PAVE. False. We've been taking this training since at least 1989. You have to take it to get your license. There are new training hours which will take effect this year. It's more of the same exact training that we've taken since the 1990's. They are just divvying up the number of credits differently. It's the same total hours with the same topics.

Carlson then talked about the false accusations that all appraisers are white supremacists, "There is zero evidence of that. It's a slur upon home appraisers. Why do they deserve this abuse?" "They're using fake allegations of racism as the pretext of a political plan. They're doing it for votes." I totally agree. Can't believe I just agreed with Tucker Carlson! I feel gross but what he said is true. Why is Carlson speaking the truth now? Is he trying to change his MO after the huge defamation lawsuit loss because of his lies? I knew one day probably near election time GOP would pick up on Biden's false narrative about appraisers. I just didn't think it'd be Tucker. Anyway here is the research which proves that appraisals are not racially biased. https://www.aei.org/how-common-is-appraiser-racial-bias/ Real estate appraisals are a math formula. We don't even know the color of the owners of all the homes we appraise and use as comparable sales.

Biden just introduced a rule about credit scores and fees effective May 1, 2023. People with FICO of 740 or above will pay $40 more a month. People with low credit scores will get a discount of 1.75%. I personally believe this is unconstitutional. The purpose of credit scores is to reward people for working hard, saving money and paying bills on time. They are lower risk borrowers so their loans costs less. The better your score, the less you pay for credit because the risk of default is lower. Carlson said black people have average credit scores under 680. He says he doesn't know why. I do. It's because of the income gap. Whites make more than blacks and browns. It's because of socioeconomic factors and not color. Whites are also more likely to be married. It's cheaper to live as a married couple than two separate households. Whites less likely to have multiple children under the age of 18 than blacks, browns. Again, AEI proved this with independent data based on government data, see above. Fix the income gap and other factors if you want things to be more equal. Don't go blaming appraisers just because it's easier and good for votes.

This new program won't even help poor people. It will help them get stuck in an over priced home in a depreciating market. They will be paying higher interest rates on their mortgage which they can't easily afford. They are more likely to not be able to afford their mortgage while the economy contracts and some lose their jobs. As their home value depreciates they will end up under water. Thanks, Biden, Harris, Fudge! The Gov did the same before the great recession. Why don't they learn their lessons? Because politics and getting votes. They don't really care about helping poor people but getting their vote. It really is a sad situation.

FTR I'm a Democrat who voted for Biden. I agree with most of his positions except the false narrative of the "racist appraiser" and mass "appraiser bias" in appraisal values. This started during the last campaign cycle. Both Harris and Biden as candidates for President promised to "finally" help lower income black and brown people. If they really want to help, fix the income gap!

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.

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Mary Cummins

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate Services has been in real estate since 1983, over 35 years. She is licensed by the Bureau of Real Estate Appraisers. Mary Cummins was an agent and broker licensed with the California Department of Real Estate selling residential income, commercial buildings, raw land and homes for Merrill Lynch Realty in Beverly Hills and Westside Properties in Los Angeles before concentrating on appraisals. Mary Cummins currently provides real estate appraisals, expert witness testimony, historical research, legal real estate research for mortgage brokers, banks, lawyers, factors, insurance companies, financial consultants and private individuals. Mary Cummins was born and raised in Southern California. Cummins attended Beverly Hills Good Shepherd Catholic School and Beverly Hills High School. Besides being on the Dean's list, Mary Cummins was a top ten national swimmer and competed on the men's water polo team. Mary Cummins began college at the age of 15 attending the University of Southern California on scholarship, majoring in Psychology/Sociology. http://www.animaladvocates.us http://www.facebook.com/AnimalAdvocatesUSA

Wednesday, April 12, 2023

Andre Perry falsely states grocery stores are racist. More bad "research," by Mary Cummins

Andre Perry just released more false and misleading "research." Andre Perry believes that premium grocery stores are racist against black people. He "proves" his point by showing there aren't many premium grocery stores in predominantly black areas. Again, his "research" is bad science and misinterpreted results. People on the internet are using his "data" to attack grocery stores and rile up black people against whites. This is not peer reviewed or published research. Below is his linked article.

https://www.brookings.edu/research/what-the-lack-of-premium-grocery-stores-says-about-disinvestment-in-black-neighborhoods/

Andre Perry states there are few premium grocery stores in mainly black areas. This is correlation and not causation. There are also few Louis Vuitton stores and Rolls Royce dealerships in predominantly black areas for the same reason. The reason is financial. There is research which proves whites make more money than blacks and Latinos in general. If a store chooses its location based on higher income, that area will more likely be more white than black, Latino. It's correlation and the income gap, stupid.

Premium grocery stores are in the business of making money. They want to make as much net profits as possible. They do this by locating their stores in an area which has the highest concentration of their most likely customers with the least amount of risk. They don't consider race. Below is an article about how Whole Foods chooses store locations to prove this. https://www.washingtonian.com/2015/07/14/how-whole-foods-decides-if-your-neighborhood-is-worthy/#:~:text=Whole%20Foods%20doesn't%20divulge,estate%2C%20population%20density%2C%20education%2C

From the article, "Whole Foods doesn’t divulge specifics about its real-estate decision-making, which it considers “proprietary.” Mid-Atlantic regional president Scott Allshouse at least offers this via e-mail:“We take a variety of factors into consideration, including availability and cost of real estate, population density, education, demographics, and the community’s interest in natural and organic foods. No one factor is most important.” Later in the article it states main factor is "education then commuter patterns, checking out competing grocery stores, and calculating their likely earnings."

Here's info on Trader Joe's locations. They tend to choose locations "located in cheaper parts of expensive areas." "The company is selective about new markets, taking a gander at median household income, education, population density, distribution efficiencies and labor force." " Stern and David Livingston, an expert in supermarket location research, said Trader Joe’s typically looks for median household income in excess of $100,000. The perfect storm, Livingston said, is high incomes and expensive homes within the first 2 miles of the potential site, with maybe a major university or large medical complex sprinkled on top." “They are not going to open a store based on a petition because everyone wants a Trader Joe’s,” Livingston said. “But only people who are educated and have high disposable incomes will actually support one.”

Grocery stores are not a government service or a nonprofit. They don't have to invest in poorer areas. They are a business. They don't care about race. They do care about safely making net profits. If an area has lots of potential clients but has high crime, theft, vandalism, they probably wouldn't choose it because net profits would be reduced by crime. Some shoppers might not even want to shop in a high crime area because they don't want to get mugged, robbed, car broken into, raped or killed. A good example of this is Whole Foods markets closing in a prime area of San Francisco. https://kesq.com/money/cnn-business-consumer/2023/04/11/whole-foods-closes-san-francisco-flagship-store-after-one-year-citing-crime-2/#:~:text=An%20enormous%20Whole%20Foods%20in,over%20the%20past%20six%20years.

Instead of calling Whole Foods a racist piece of shit the County Supervisor said this about the closure. "San Francisco Board of Supervisors member Matt Dorsey said on Twitter that he was “incredibly disappointed” by the closure. “Our neighborhood waited a long time for this supermarket, but we’re also well aware of problems they’ve experienced with drug-related retail theft, adjacent drug markets, and the many safety issues related to them,” Dorsey wrote. Appearing on “CNN This Morning” Wednesday, Dorsey said he’s “seen a lot of issues of people acting out and shoplifting” at the store. “Fingers crossed we can turn things around here and I do have some optimism, but hopefully we can get this supermarket back open,” he said." Reducing crime in the area is the solution here not calling people racists. If you call Whole Foods racists, they may never want to open a store in that market area.

Per research there is a correlation between income, age, class, gender, race and increased street crime, see link below. Lower income, 15-24 age group, lower class, males, black then Latino commit most street crime per research. Lower income areas tend to have more 15-24 year olds, lower class, males, blacks and Latinos which commit more crime. More correlation. Increased crime levels is another reason why Trader Joe's would not want a store in a lower income area. Crime reduces sales, adds costs and eats into profits. https://open.lib.umn.edu/socialproblems/chapter/8-3-who-commits-crime/

Andre Perry's article looks at premium markets. Premium markets like Trader Joe's sell specialty items, organic food and higher priced items. It makes sense to be located in an area where people make more money. If you don't have a lot of money and went to Trader Joe's, you wouldn't be able to afford to buy as much food. You'd rather shop at the 99 cent store where I shop or Dollar General. There is plenty of good, healthy, affordable food at the 99 cent store. I buy beans, rice, fresh fruits, fresh vegetables at the 99 cent store at a better price than Ralphs, Trader Joe's and Whole Foods. I'd be pissed if I didn't have a 99 cent store not a Trader Joe's. Only uppity people like Andre Perry would demand a Trader Joe's. If you want to shop at Trader Joe's to buy $11 lavender flavored organic nuts, just go to one. If you can't travel, the 99 cent store is fine to buy regular nuts. People don't need specialty grocery stores. They just need to buy good affordable food. Next Perry will be whining that there's no Gucci store in low income areas.

I'm Latino and live in a predominantly Latino area because it's a poorer area in Los Angeles. We have a 99 cent store and a Ralphs. I eat good, healthy, cheap food and am happy. I don't want or need an expensive Whole Foods or Trader Joe's store. Maybe I should be like Andre Perry and yell that markets are racist against Latinos because I personally don't get what I want. Perry seems to always forget that his predominantly black areas (10% or more black) also have 90% poor Latinos, whites and others. He only cares about black people because he has a personal agenda. I read most of his book "Know your price" and he basically admits that he's racist against white people. He blames every problem on white people.

Maybe I should lie and state that all companies that don't cater to poor Latino me are racists against Latinos. I'd probably get a good following of poor angry Latinos who think all their problems are caused by others. I bet I could write a book about Latino hate and make money writing hate books, giving hate speeches and spewing racist lies to further divide our country just like Andre Perry. I would never do that because that would be dishonest and racist. Andre Perry is doing it because of his racism and he likes the money and false accolades. He needs to make more money so he can shop at more expensive Trader Joe's.

Mary Cummins

Monday, April 10, 2023

HUD only cares about appraisals UNDER contract price which is dangerous by Mary Cummins

appraisal value over under contract sales price, mary cummins, real estate appraiser, real estate appraisal, fannie mae, percent sales price, contract price, appraisal, value

Dave Towne sent out this linked article about bias and appraisal gap.

"The article below was in the Inside Mortgage Finance Publications e-newsletter on 4/06/23:

"FHFA Data Fueling Looks into Appraisal Bias

dhollier@imfpubs.com

The Federal Housing Finance Agency is a is a critical provider of the data necessary for oversight, enforcement and research, FHFA Director Sandra Thompson noted during a discussion in late March.

According to aggregate statistics from the Uniform Appraisal Dataset released by the FHFA, roughly 57% of appraisals were above the contract price in 2021. Just 15.2% were below the eventual sale price, but these are the under-valuations that could possibly reflect bias.

And the important datum here is that this percentage is growing. In 2013, only 8.4% of appraisals came in under the contract price.

In addition to providing data, Thompson noted that FHFA has coordinated with the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Department of Justice “to provide additional information for fair lending enforcement and oversight.”

If this actually reflects the true thinking of Ms. Thompson, she has aligned with so many others who believe SALE PRICE is immutable, and is the ultimate indicator of Value, and apparently, of bias, when not accepted as gospel by the appraiser. My gosh, what a misguided opinion!

Apparently Ms. Thompson didn’t see, experience or understand what happened during the ‘pandemic era’ in mid-2020-early ‘22, when overly emotional, and irrationally exuberant buyers paid astronomical prices for homes way above what their actual value was. The same thing happened in 2006-2008.....but it wasn’t considered ‘bias’ then due to the different political climate and attitude at that time.

Conversely, how can it be said that valuing a property lower than its eventual sale price based on current market evidence is tantamount to BIAS? And, if 57% of the appraised values were ABOVE the sales price, couldn’t that also reflect BIAS? Seems to me that if one comparison in one direction is considered bias, the other in the opposite direction can be equally judged the same.

To better understand this concept, look up the definition of bias.

The political drumbeat of appraisal bias just because an appraisal Value doesn’t reflect Sales Price is blatantly wrong-headed. In fact, it reflects internal personal bias at worst, and exhibits a definite lack of understanding of the appraisal process, by the person promoting such falsehoods.

More appraisers should stand up and challenge Ms. Thompson’s assertions."

I agree that we should be looking at the over valuations. That is probably where most of any alleged "bias" would be. In the major media cases of alleged bias the first lower appraisal is considered the wrong one when it was actually the higher second appraisal that was wrong and above market value.

The second higher appraisals were influenced, biased by the AMC, Lender and borrowers who stated the first appraisal was too low. The second appraiser knew there'd be a complaint or lawsuit if they didn't come in high. Clearly the second appraiser was influenced to come in over market value. In the appraiser's eyes he has much to lose coming in at market and much to gain by coming in above market. That's all fine until the borrower goes under and the gov reviews the appraisal in default which they stated they will do. This is a concern because the current economy and real estate market is going down. People are losing jobs as interest rates rise. More homeowners could end up under water and in default.

Things are a little similar to the beginning of the Great Recession. We all know what happened after the Great Recession. The gov pushed appraisers to come in high to meet higher values. After values dropped the government blamed appraisers! We report values. We don't set them. The gov caused the huge run up with reduced financial regulations and programs which helped lower income people take on loans they couldn't easily afford. The gov caused great financial damage to the people they said they were helping.

Image above came from this article
https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/perspectives/opportunities-improve-value-appraisals

Nice quote from the above linked article, "Reforms following the 2008 housing crisis attempted to improve the independence and accuracy of appraisals, and some early research indicated these reforms were marginally successful, with the percent of transactions confirmed falling from a high of 98 percent in 2007 to 94 percent in 2009. Confirmation rates, however, have since drifted back up as we have moved further away from the financial crisis."

So was it the financial crisis or reforms which caused change in % of appraisals meeting contract price?

What's interesting is there were appraisals done pre and post contract. When the appraiser knew the contract price, the value was more likely to meet or exceed that contract price. Maybe appraisers shouldn't know the contract price because it clearly influences them. Fannie Mae even makes that suggestion in their article.

Fannie Mae knows the industry and what's really happening. They can't speak freely because they are dependent upon HUD and the government no matter how "independent" they claim to be. For this reason they kiss HUD's ass and support all this false alleged appraisal bias. AEI's research has shown there is no appraisal bias based on race in the government's own data. HUD still falsely insists there is for political reasons. 2024 elections are coming. I bet Dem candidates will still be hawking racial appraisal bias in their campaigns to get the black, brown vote. They will claim they already solved most of the alleged bias but will continue to do more.

Mary Cummins

Thursday, March 23, 2023

Biden Claims to Have "Fixed" the Alleged Racial Bias in Home Valuations but Didn't, by Mary Cummins

UPDATE: 03/24/23 Marcia Fudge just said the same thing in a video almost word for word. Notice how different her tone of voice is in this video compared to other videos. Here she is speaking slow, politely, calmly and even has an interesting accent which is very different than her normal speaking voice. She's not as sharp, condescending, abrasive, abusive or calling all appraisers and whites racists like she usually does. She is flat out lying when she says data proves that "appraisal bias is real." There is no data or research which proves that. There is research based on the government's data which proves it does not exist in the reports and valuations.
https://www.linkedin.com/company/hud/videos/native/urn:li:ugcPost:7044684730058895360/

ORIGINAL: Today the White House claimed they "fixed" the alleged "racial and ethnic bias in home valuations." They claim the Biden-Harris PAVE task force has "fixed" the "wealth gap" among whites and blacks, browns related to home value. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/03/23/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-tackles-racial-and-ethnic-bias-in-home-valuations/ This is beyond misleading and couldn't be further from the truth.

Let me preface this by stating I'm a Latino Democrat woman who voted for Biden. I support Biden in most of his policies. I do not support his policies related to real estate appraisers and the appraisal industry. Biden, Harris merely created a non-existent problem to get black, brown votes. They stated they alone can fix the problem if elected. They formed the PAVE task force to fix the made up problem. Then they claimed they fixed the problem. Ta da! Pat on back. No easier problem to solve than a nonexistent one.

Nothing has really changed. The main reason is because the problem never existed. The "fixes" also already existed. Black, brown owned homes are worth less than white owned homes because of the income gap. It's a fact that blacks, browns make less money than whites. If you make less money, you have less money in general and less generational wealth. If you have less money, you buy a less expensive home than someone who makes more money. That less expensive home is in a less expensive area. Here is research provided to the PAVE task force which proves this https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/aei-housing-center-response-to-perry-and-rothwell-2021/ . Appraisers are not appraising the homes differently based on race! People who make less money also buy and own less expensive cars. Are car values also the fault of "biased" real estate appraisers?

The release states "In just 12 months, the PAVE Task Force has made critical progress towards fully implementing the Action Plan, including by empowering consumers with new tools and greater awareness of appraisal bias; leveraging data to identify trends and crack down on offenders of appraisal bias; and supporting a well-trained and dynamic appraiser profession." Let's take a look at these three areas of "success."

1. "Empowering consumers to take action against appraisal bias."

They claim borrowers can now file a Reconsideration of Value if they don't like the value. Borrowers have always been able to file a ROV! I've seen ROVs for at least 30 years. HUD stated they're giving $54,000,000 to private non-profits to help them educate the public about ROVs and related items. A huge waste of funds that should have been used to solve the income gap problem and actually help people. This also shows the agenda of the private nonprofits receiving the funds. They will support this flawed idea to get millions of dollars.

2. "Increasing transparency and leveraging federal data to inform policy and improve enforcement against appraisal bias."

They've released similar data for at least 20 years. This is how people have been able to do research on appraisals and home sales, values. This research on this "new" data proved there was no racial bias by appraisers. It also proved that the values are based on location. Remember the three biggest indicators of value are location, location, location. This data proved that the main correlation between home value and borrower is income and not race.

3. "Cultivating an appraiser profession that is well-trained and looks like the communities it serves. The Administration is taking steps to remove unnecessary educational and experience requirements that make it difficult for underrepresented groups to access the profession and to strengthen anti-bias, fair housing, and fair lending training of existing appraisers."

They proposed adding education on bias as part of license requirements and it's not even final yet. This was already a requirement and had been a requirement since at least 1989. Appraisers were talking about using different types of experience i.e. PAREA, to get a license long before Biden was elected or any talk of racial bias. The apprentice experience program is difficult for people of every color and race. They still have not finalized a change in the requirements for experience. While they talked about making appraisers more diverse there has not been an actual change in the diversity of appraisers. Luring black, brown people to become a new appraiser in a market with no business that requires three years minimum experience to get work is actually a cruel thing to do to lower income people.

Most upsetting in this puff release is they mention the Austin lawsuit in Marin, California, "Austins' home was appraised at roughly $500,000 more than its initial appraised value after having a white friend stand in for them. Earlier this month, the Tate-Austins settled a housing discrimination lawsuit." They forget to mention that the Defendant not only didn't admit wrong doing but there was no wrong doing on the part of the first appraiser. They assumed the second appraisal was correct when it wasn't. The first appraiser only settled because of legal fees and harassment which the Federal government encouraged and aided. Having a white friend stand in for them had no effect on value. They requested another appraiser and appraisal from the same AMC. That appraiser knew the borrower's target value and wanted to please the borrower for fear of a lawsuit and AMC, lender to keep getting work.

This entire issue of alleged bias in appraising is beyond frustrating, maddening and sad. It makes me wonder how many other fake problems were created in politics just to get votes. How many other "we fixed the problem!" statements were just fake puff statements like this one. The worst part is the administration hasn't helped the people who are suffering from the income gap among white and black, brown. It's clearly easier to call appraisers "racists" and blame them for the wealth gap than fix the real problem of income disparity.

*I'm using "black," "brown" because that is what the release states to be clear.

Mary Cummins

Saturday, March 18, 2023

Old Victorian Homes on Carroll Avenue in Angeleno Heights, Los Angeles, California by Mary Cummins

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Visited the old homes on Carroll Avenue in Angeleno Heights in Los Angeles, California the other day. Some old the homes were built in the 1880's. Most were built before 1920. The entire 1300 block of Carroll Avenue was listed under the National Register of Historic Places in 1976. The styles are Victorian, Queen Anne and Arts and Crafts. I took a few photos.

Mary Cummins

Monday, February 20, 2023

Rebuttal to Marcia Fudge's Misleading 2022 CNN Interview by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

Marica Fudge, HUD, Laura Coates, CNN, interview,Mary Cummins real estate appraiser, bias, discrimination, racism,white, black, Latino, home value,

Marcia Fudge of the Housing and Urban Development Department (HUD) was on CNN August 22, 2022 with Laura Coates discussing alleged appraisal bias. "Housing and Urban Development Sec. Marcia Fudge says her department is examining the process in which home appraisers collect data, which she says is systemically biased against people of color." "HUD Secretary On Battle Against Racism In Real Estate."

Here is a link to the show: https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/08/22/hud-sec-fudge-racism-in-home-appraisal-process-coates-intv-ctn-vpx.cnn

Here is a link to the transcript: https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/se/date/2022-08-22/segment/01

Marcia Fudge continues to promote the false narrative of the alleged "racist appraiser" "devaluing black owned homes." Marcia Fudge has the facts and independent research yet actively intentionally promotes the false narrative to promote her own agenda. Fudge's agenda is to get media attention for herself and more money for her department. Fudge and politicians have created this problem so they can state they alone can fix it. In fact based on what Fudge said in the interview the problem has already been fixed just by doing the same thing they've done for years.

The real issue is the income gap. White owned homes are valued more than black, Latino owned homes because of the income gap. Whites make more money than blacks, Latinos. The more money you make, the more money you have. The more money you have, the more expensive home you can buy and own. The more expensive home you have, the more generational wealth is created. If you want to fix the home value gap, fix the income gap. Fudge won't admit to that because then the problem is not in the jurisdiction of her department HUD and she won't get more money.

Below are some very misleading quotes by Marcia Fudge.

"Because what we know is that it used to be that these things happen only in redlined

communities. But now it is pervasive, it is happening everywhere. And we determined that part of the problem was how appraisers are trained, who was in the appraisal industry, and how they are governed. And so, what we did, in March, was to present a report that showed how deeply, this whole bias situation, is across this country. It is systemic, and it is intentional to some degree."

Marcia Fudge doesn't understand redlining. Here's an article I wrote about it. Those risk maps were made by her own government agency HUD FHA and no longer exist. Government made risk maps were a way to determine loan risk. They included many factors. We still use all of these factors except we don't use race or country of origin. If you took race and country of origin out of the old maps, they were 100% as effective in determining risk. Obviously race and nation of origin have nothing to do with loan risk. Correlation is not causation. Not all maps even included those factors.

"That's part of the problem, Laura, it's the data. So, they collect data, and the data is not what it should be. They then use the data, in a way that it should not be used. And so, they come up with these biased appraisals. But as well, when you look at an industry, that is more than 95 percent White, you find that people of color, are treated differently, because there is an inherent bias with a lot of them. And because they collect the data, the data is not good data."

Appraisers don't collect data. The data is home sale prices. It's just data. HUD collects this data. Zillow has and uses the same data. MLS, Title collect data. Appraisers use the public data according to the law and well established, accepted economic theory. HUD is one of the government agencies which told appraisers what data to use and how to use it. Appraisers are doing what HUD told us to do.

95% of all appraisers aren't white. I've gone over the misleading statistics in previous articles. Almost the same amount of appraisers are white as real estate agents. If most agents are white, does that mean they are also all racists? Most people in the US are white. Does that mean every white person is racist? Of course not.

"If those homes are appraised the way that they should be Laura, then we look at being able to pass down, significantly, more resources, and more wealth, to generations that follow." "And if we are

constantly being discriminated against - and that is really what this is. We can call it bias, if you want. But it is systemic racism, and it is built within most federal agencies, and those agencies that we oversee."

This is the result of the income gap and not appraisers. Here is AEI's response to the PAVE Task Force. Fudge knows this. She has the facts, data and research. If she truly believes this, she should be fired because she's incompetent. Fudge is just lying to the public.

"So, we're tackling it. We are now advising first-time homebuyers, on their rights, if they get low appraisals. We are doing it to people, who sell properties. We are going to train all of the appraisers through fair housing and lending laws. We're going to make sure that the data is collected properly. And we're going to make sure that the right people have the data."

Fudge's solution is to do what we've already been doing for years. Fudge created a "horrible" problem then instantly fixed it by doing nothing. All these things have already been done years before she was the head of HUD. This proves she knows the problem doesn't really exist. She hasn't made any real changes and now it's "fixed."

Marcia Fudge stated that her own home is worth less than white owned homes down the street because she is black. This is of course false. I did a valuation of her much older home on a busy highway. It's worth less than the homes up the street because they are new luxury homes off of the highway. If Fudge doesn't understand this, she doesn't understand the basics of home appraisal and should resign as head of HUD. She states this falsehood for effect every time she speaks.

Mary Cummins

Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Real Reasons Appraisers Come in Below Contract Price by AEI. It's not Racism, by Mary Cummins

AEI just released a report about appraisers coming in below contract price in areas with lower income buyers, lower priced homes and more blacks and Latinos. This is exactly what I've been talking about. Again, AEI proves it with science and facts. Just FYI AEI is considered a "conservative" source.

"Our critique points out some significant shortcomings of these studies. Notably, they focus on entire
neighborhoods, when they should study the actions of individual appraisers. They use the greater share
of under-valuations as evidence of racial bias, when they should consider explanations unrelated to bias
that might account for under-valuations, including for example the greater share of first-time
homebuyers, who tend to overbid, or the greater presence of seller concessions, which will reduce the
appraisal amount when they are properly accounted for. They also fail to note the size of these undervaluations. Using the Aggregate Statistics Data File and Dashboards, our analysis indicates they are relatively small, averaging about $1,100 to $1,900.5 These levels are too high if they are in fact due to racial bias. However, our analysis finds multiple other plausible explanations for under valuations of this magnitude such as the greater presence of first-time homebuyers or seller concessions. We also note
that under valuations of this magnitude of are unlikely to depress entire neighborhoods and, they may
in fact provide a disproportionate consumer benefit to minority homebuyers.

We conclude with a renewed call on Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and regulators such as the FHFA to mass screen individual appraisers for racial bias and inaccuracies. We have already laid the groundwork for this research with a published working methodology."

The most important issue which I've stated previously is they focus on appraisal value and contract price for purchases and no refinances. When doing an appraisal for purchase the appraiser NEVER sees, meets the borrower, buyer. We may see the seller or the seller's agent but never the borrower. The government study also doesn't know the race or color of the borrower, buyer AND appraiser. What if it's only black appraisers coming in low with black borrowers? A recent horrible unreliable "study" showed that the appraiser who came in the lowest for black people was themselves black.

More important observations from AEI's study. Contract price does not equal market value. First time home buyers which are more likely in these lower priced areas are more likely to over bid. They don't always know they can negotiate. These same areas tend to have homes in lower condition. The appraiser adds more comps to appraisals which are below contract price. I do this to fully back up my work so everyone can understand the value. An appraisal that comes in below the contract price would not endear you to the AMC or lender. Appraisers HATE coming in below contract price but we do it because it's the right legal fair thing to do. The appraisal is to secure the loan not help a buyer or seller.

Some good snippets though you should read the entire report.

Fist time buyers offer over market value. "Shui and Murthy (2019) conclude that first-time homebuyers using Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac financing overbid for a home by approximately $3,000, or about 1% of the contract price for the average home compared to repeat buyers. They also find that FTBs with higher LTVs tend to overpay by more compared those with lower LTVs. FHA borrowers, who are disproportionally concentrated in minority census tracts and largely FTBs, typically have higher LTVs and lower credit scores and may thus be more likely to overpay than other buyers."

There are more seller concessions in these first time buyers, buyers using gov funding and these areas. If a home sells for $100,000 and has a $3,000 seller concession, appraisers subtract $3,000 from $100,000 in the adjustments. The net price is $97,000 which is under contract price now by 3%. There are more concessions to help buyers buy the property and because of condition.

There are more buyers for lower priced homes. This causes buyers to over bid for homes based on supply and demand. We saw this during the recent Covid runup. Buyers bid and paid over list price. They had to make up the difference in loan amount with a larger down payment.

First time buyers aren't just competing against other buyers but also against their rent. Many only compare what they are paying in rent to what their mortgage will be. Quick story. Friend of mine was buying a cheap mobile home. She wanted to buy a cheap home because the mortgage is less than her rent. She was buying it to save monthly expenses. Appraisal came in $20,000 below contract price of $85,000. She asked me for help. I told her appraisal value looked correct. I told her to ask seller to reduce price. She said "but it's actually worth $85,000! It's almost the cheapest house on the market! I will lose the home to someone else! I have to buy this home because the monthly payments are cheaper than my cheap rent!" She didn't care about the price but the monthly payment being less than rent. She only wanted to find a way to get $20,000 more cash for the down payment. Thankfully seller reduced the price. The appraisal gap prevented her from over paying for her first home. Many first time buyers in less expensive areas feel the same way.

Buyers using government funding tend to overbid. They're buying the home with someone else's money because of lower down payment requirements.They just want the home at any price believing it will instantly go up in value and they will have thousands in equity to take eventually. The government told them this is the American dream.

The actual appraisal gap is small. There is almost no gap in Latino areas and 1% in black areas. The government made this huge stink about appraisal gap and there barely is one! "In our prior critique of Freddie Mac’s research note, we find that “there appears to be no gap [in home purchase appraisals] relative to White tracts for Latino tracts and a relatively small gap [in home purchase appraisals] of 1-2% for Black tracts.” They mean predominantly white, Latino or black census tracts. None are 100% white, black or brown. That means whites are having the same issues in those areas as blacks and Latinos. The gap is not a color issue because the same things happens to whites in the same area.

AEI again debunks Andre Perry's "paper." Perry stated appraisers devalue black owned property by $48,000 per home. That's much more than the difference in contract price and appraised value of 1%. AEI pointed out that homes owned by poor whites are also valued less than homes owned by wealthier whites. It's not because of skin color but income, wealth and location.

Appraisals coming in below contract price can help lower income Latino, black buyers. They can renegotiate with the seller. The government didn't say the buyers never closed on the properties and the deals died. They're prevented from overpaying and ending up upside down. AEI state that the government is part of the problem. They help and allow buyers to over pay for homes at the top of the market only to lose those homes later when the market tanks or they have a financial emergency. And you know who the government falsely blames for that? Appraisers!

This kind of reminds me of the destroyed apartment buildings in the Turkey earthquake. Their President bragged that he reduced earthquake requirements to allow the construction of 300,000+ homes for lower income people. That is one of the major causes of the high fatalities in the earthquake. The President basically killed people. FHA and the government like to brag that they helped low income people buy homes. Then they lose their homes because they over paid at the peak of the market and couldn't easily pay the mortgage. Also reminds me of our student loan problems. Latinos, blacks are the ones stuck with huge student loans while the government brags they helped them get an education. Most didn't even finish their education and get the degree or certificate. Most of the ones that did didn't even get the better paying promised job. Governments just want to brag that they "helped" people not caring that they actually destroyed them financially. If the government helped them find a way to earn more money, they could buy a home on their own and afford to stay in it.

AEI suggest mass screening of appraisers to check for racial bias. I support this. If any appraiser knew of a racist appraiser who came in low on a black, Latino owned home because of their racial bias, they would love to take that appraiser back behind the wood shed. All appraisers are being attacked, vilified, defamed based on this false narrative of the "racist old white male appraiser." While racism sure as hell exists, not all appraisers are racists who lowball Latinos and blacks. If there are appraisers doing this, other appraisers would be the first to hold them accountable and strip them of their license.

FTR Dan Wiley of Freddie Mac stated this about their appraisal gap research. "We have not reached any conclusion for cause of the gaps or correlation. Our research showed that further studies are warranted." Danny Wiley and Freddie Mac are doing further research into the possible causes of the appraisal gap. They are looking at all the new data and reviewing all appraisals involved in the appraisal gap research. Of course that hasn't stopped Marcia Fudge, HUD, media... from running with Freddie Mac and other's inconclusive data about appraisal gap from stating it's allegedly caused by racial discrimination by appraisers.

https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/exploring-alternative-explanations-for-appraisal-under-valuation/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=exploring_alternative_explanations_for_appraisal_under_valuation&utm_term=2023-02-14

Mary Cummins

Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Animal Advocates, Los Angeles, California

Friday, April 21, 2023

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