Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Real Estate Appraisal, Los Angeles, California, Mary Cummins.

Mary Cummins is a real estate appraiser in Los Angeles, California with 38+ years of experience. Cummins provides real estate appraisals for banks, lenders, mortgage brokers, Appraisal Management Companies (AMCs), lawyers, Courts, factors and private parties for lending, lawsuits, probate, estate planning, divorce and all types of litigation. Cummins provides 1004, 1073, 1025 and other form reports, narrative reports and historical appraisals besides real estate research and appraisal advice.

Monday, February 10, 2025

Pending Burned Home Land Sales Palisades $999,000 by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

UPDATE: Just sold $1,185,000 53% of Zillow AVM value or about 79% of pre fire land value. Another pending sale in the Palisades at 17126 Avenida de la Herradura. Zillow said it was worth $2.2M. It was just listed at $999,000 which is less than half. If it were worth $2.2M, land is about 60-70% total value in this area or $1,500,000. This means it was listed at 66% of land value or 34% reduction of just land value. This makes sense but let's first see if it closes at $999K. Anyone selling today should expect 20% reduction in price for all cash sale. No one can get a loan in this area today. There are also costs to fully demolish and remove debris. It will take maybe 12-18 months to get utilities, do soil toxicity tests and start to get permit approvals. There are no utilities to the area at the moment. Only developers can afford to buy these properties. They need to see 20% profit after all expenses including holding costs. Whoever eventually buys the finished home may have issues getting fire insurance and a mortgage. I'll be doing statistics on pre post fire values for Palisades and maybe Altadena.

From the current MLS ad. "This piece of land, located in the highly sought-after Palisades Highlands area, offers a rare opportunity to create your dream property. While the land has been impacted by the recent Palisades fire, it presents a blank canvas for visionary buyers ready to reimagine its potential. Seller is looking for serious offers only so they can move on with their lives. With its unparalleled location and proximity to natural beauty, this property is ideal for those with the foresight to invest in and restore a prized piece of Los Angeles real estate. Don't miss the chance to bring new life to this remarkable location. Serious inquiries only, please."

Previous listing from 2005

Zillow chart. It's meaningless but fun to look at. Zestimate uses old asking list price as determinations of value. Doesn't matter if it doesn't sell at that price. It uses it as a base and adds appreciation to that value. That's where Zillow got $2.2M. It could have been worth more. The Zestimate is down now because of the new list price not because Zillow changed the value or algorithm.

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.

Mary Cummins, Mary K. Cummins, Mary Katherine Cummins, Mary, Cummins, #marycummins #animaladvocates #losangeles #california #wildlife #wildliferehabilitation #wildliferehabilitator #realestate #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #lawsuit real estate, appraiser, appraisal, instructor, teacher, Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Pasadena, Brentwood, Bel Air, California, licensed, permitted, certified, single family, condo, condominium, pud, hud, fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, uspap, certified, residential, certified resident, apartment building, multi-family, commercial, industrial, expert witness, civil, criminal, orea, dre, brea insurance, bonded, experienced, bilingual, spanish, english, form, 1004, 2055, 1073, land, raw, acreage, vacant, insurance, cost, income approach, market analysis, comparative, theory, appraisal theory, cost approach, sales, matched pairs, plot, plat, map, diagram, photo, photographs, photography, rear, front, street, subject, comparable, sold, listed, active, pending, expired, cancelled, listing, mls, multiple listing service, claw, themls, historical appraisal, facebook, linkedin

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Mary Cummins

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate Services has been in real estate since 1983, over 35 years. She is licensed by the Bureau of Real Estate Appraisers. Mary Cummins was an agent and broker licensed with the California Department of Real Estate selling residential income, commercial buildings, raw land and homes for Merrill Lynch Realty in Beverly Hills and Westside Properties in Los Angeles before concentrating on appraisals. Mary Cummins currently provides real estate appraisals, expert witness testimony, historical research, legal real estate research for mortgage brokers, banks, lawyers, factors, insurance companies, financial consultants and private individuals. Mary Cummins was born and raised in Southern California. Cummins attended Beverly Hills Good Shepherd Catholic School and Beverly Hills High School. Besides being on the Dean's list, Mary Cummins was a top ten national swimmer and competed on the men's water polo team. Mary Cummins began college at the age of 15 attending the University of Southern California on scholarship, majoring in Psychology/Sociology. http://www.animaladvocates.us http://www.facebook.com/AnimalAdvocatesUSA

Sunday, February 9, 2025

Fire Sale: Home Destroyed by Palisades Fire Now 70% Of, by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

The Pacific Palisades fire in Los Angeles, California has definitely affected property values. 14800 Mc Kendree was listed for $9,495,000 until the fire hit. After the fire February 7, 2025 and the home was destroyed it was relisted as raw land for $2,895,000. That's an almost 70% discount. Normally land value is 60-70% of total value in this area. Real AVM says it's worth $9.4M because it was listed for that. That means land was maybe worth $6.5M. It's now for sale for less than 50% of alleged land value. He owes $4.5M on the home. Property taxes are $90,000/year. I don't blame the guy for selling. I would too.

Part of the discount is because the debris must still be demolished and removed. One has to do toxicity tests on the soil before rebuilding. There are no utilities with no date for when utilities will return. Even the foundation may be destroyed from heat and need to be dug up. The permit process will take a long time as will the building process. The sale and construction will probably have to be all cash. Generally an all cash deal is about a 20% discount. If only a developer can buy the property, that's another 20% discount because they must have profit after all costs including holding costs. This sale prices makes sense.

Whoever owned the home still has to pay the mortgage. If they wanted to rebuild, they'd also have to pay for a construction loan which I doubt they'd get. They'd most likely have to pay all cash for construction. Only developers can afford to take on these huge expenses and holding costs. Even after the home is built fire insurance will be a big expensive issue. The area and home will still have stigma from the fires. I predict it will be a while before the home prices in the area return to pre fire values.

Before fire listing until January 25, 2025. "Welcome to the peaceful luxury that is 14800 Mc Kendree Avenue, ideally located above the coveted alphabet streets and a short walk to the Palisades village teeming with high-end shopping, dining and movie theater. This property is the perfect retreat you've been waiting for, a traditional showpiece that boasts 7400 square feet with 6 bedrooms and 7 baths. Step inside the front door, and pause to take in the dramatic sweeping views of the pacific coastline and Catalina Island. The home is as much an escape from the city for family and friends as it is an entertainers paradise. "

After fire listing February 7, 2025. "BE PART OF THE REBUILD. This highly desirable 7692 square foot street-to-street lot sits above the Palisades Village with sweeping ocean views. This is an opportunity to rebuild the beautiful 7400 square foot home that sat here plus an additional 10% square footage for a current buildable maximum of 8140 square feet. The lot comes with the original plans for the house, which would govern the rebuild, along with limitless potential for the visionary buyer.This is a rare chance to invest in the beloved Palisades, which will again become one of the most close-knit and sought after communities in all of Los Angeles. EPA Phase I is complete for this lot as of 2/5/25.Serious offers only."

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Mary Cummins

95 W Calaveras St Destroyed in Eaton Fire in Altadena in Escrow for $449,000 by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

95 W Calaveras St was a two/three bed, two bath 1,636 sf home built 1939 that was destroyed in the Eaton fire. The owner doesn't want to rebuild so they listed it for sale January 29, 2025 for $449,000. It's pending as of February 5, 2025. It allegedly sold $100,000 over list all cash. We should wait to see the closing price. It was purchased August 2023 for $965,000. There is a $570,000 first trust deed. This may take a while to close with the mortgage cram down, fire claims and inability to demolish or clear the site. They still must do toxicity soil tests before they can break ground. It will take a while to get gas, water and electric back to the sites as the poles, meters have burned. Whoever buys it will have to pay holding costs while they wait until they can get permits approved and start building. That could take 18 months.

Notice the AVMs think the home still exists and is now worth $1,193,900 or about $1-$1.3M. This is why AVMs aren't accurate. It'll be interesting what the AVMs think the values are after a few of these homes sell at land value. Now IFFFFF it were worth $1.2M, land in this area runs about 60-70% of value depending or $720,000 to $840,000. That means the land is now selling at about 40-50% pre fire land value. This makes sense because I bet new owner has to pay all cash because they can't get a loan. They may not be able to get a construction or final loan for the home when it's built because they may not be able to find fire insurance. That is why the property is selling at a discount. These are very rough guesstimates for the sake of the article.

The people in the Palisades have a more difficult situation. They are in a coastal zone and have to deal with the Coastal Commission. You have to get permits for trucks just to deliver construction material. Every individual permit must be approved which takes a lot of time. Many speculative projects go bankrupt because projects take so long for approvals that holding costs eat up any possible profits. A lot of the Palisades is hillside property which makes things even more difficult.

Oddly enough neighbor's home at 103 W Calaveras appears to be intact from satellite view. That home had stucco siding which is more fire resistant. 95 W Calaveras had wood siding. Below is photo of 95 W Calaveras before the fire.

Previous MLS listing.

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Mary Cummins

Saturday, February 8, 2025

Fire Risk Map for Los Angeles and California by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

Here is the wildfire risk map for Los Angeles County area. You can see the Palisades fire was in a high risk wildfire zone. Parts of Altadena, Pasadena were higher risk. You will probably need wildfire insurance in these areas. #firerisk #wildfirezone #marycummins #realestateappraiser #realestateappraisal #losangeles #california

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/03beab8511814e79a0e4eabf0d3e7247/

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Mary Cummins

Friday, February 7, 2025

Scott Turner Confirmed as Secretary of HUD, Conversation on False Narrative of Appraisal Bias, by Mary Cummins

appraisal bias, mary cummins, real estate appraisal, real estate appraiser, steve womack, scott turner, hud, confirmation hearing,

Scott Turner was confirmed as the Secretary of HUD yesterday. During his confirmation hearing Senator Steve Womack promoted the false narrative of the racist appraiser lowballing Blacks. Senator Steve Womack stated "So one of the overlooked drivers of racial wealth and equity within our housing system is the very well-documented pattern of lenders and the appraisal market persistently assessing the value of black and brown homes lower than white homeowners. If confirmed, will you commit to continue to use HUD's tools and authorities to crack down on appraisal bias, including by continuing to provide consumers with data to push back on suspected bias?" Scott Turner said he would look into it.

I took the opportunity to email Scott Turner at HUD the following. I encourage everyone to try to meet, speak with Turner in hopes he will see and believe the independent data and research on this subject. I sent the following email.

Email to Scott Turner:

"I watched your confirmation hearing. Senator Warnock mentioned the false narrative of "appraisal bias." He stated "So one of the overlooked drivers of racial wealth and equity within our housing system is the very well-documented pattern of lenders and the appraisal market persistently assessing the value of black and brown homes lower than white homeowners."

This is totally false and has been proven with independent research by AEI and others. People who make more money have more money and buy more expensive homes in more expensive areas. Whites make more than Blacks, Latinos. That explains the difference in value of white and Black, Latino owned homes. No one is low balling Blacks and Latinos. It's the income gap.

Joe Biden used this false narrative for political purposes to try to court the Black, Latino vote. He knew this was false. So did Marcia Fudge the ex secretary of HUD. Income inequality is not under the jurisdiction of HUD. It would be under the Department of Labor. This is why Donald Trump got rid of the PAVE Task Force. PAVE promoted the false narrative which has harmed appraisers and the industry.

I'm asking you and HUD to not continue to promote the false narrative of the "racist appraiser" lowballing home values of certain groups. It's discriminatory and racist. I hope the government can work on the income and wealth gap instead with programs that help people make more money so they can buy a home.

References

AEI How Common is Appraiser Racial Bias? It's not.
https://www.aei.org/how-common-is-appraiser-racial-bias/

AEI A Critique of the Brookings Institute Andre Perry The Devaluation of Assets in Black Neighborhoods. AEI proves Andre Perry's paper deeply flawed and incorrect.https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Impact-of-Race-and-Socio-Economic-Status-on-the-Value-of-Homes-by-Neighborhood-Presentation-8.5.21-FINAL-v4.pdf?x91208

From the confirmation hearing of HUD Secretary Scott Turner:

Senator Warnock (02:22:25):

So one of the overlooked drivers of racial wealth and equity within our housing system is the very well-documented pattern of lenders and the appraisal market persistently assessing the value of black and brown homes lower than white homeowners. You and I discussed this a little bit the other day in my office, and my staff sent you some background information and data on appraisal bias. This is real money hurting real people. In part of my urging, the Biden administration took steps to crack down on appraisal bias with HUD leading an interagency effort. If confirmed, will you commit to continue to use HUD's tools and authorities to crack down on appraisal bias, including by continuing to provide consumers with data to push back on suspected bias?

Mr. Turner (02:23:15):

Thank you, Senator. Thank you for the information that you sent. I have begun to read and I look forward to exploring that more with you. And as I said before, I do commit to upholding the law as it is on the book, against all illegal discrimination.

Senator Warnock (02:23:29):

Including appraisal bias.

Mr. Turner (02:23:31):

We will continue to look into that and I look forward to working with you on that and become more well-studied. Thank you.

https://www.rev.com/transcripts/scott-turner-confirmation-hearing

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Mary Cummins

Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Photos of Homes in Palisades Fire zone by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

Was in the Palisades fire zone and took a few photos. Getty Villa museum has some burned fences, trees and bushes. There's a mudslide, landslide at Will Rogers park. Vons is now open near Sunset/PCH. PCH closed at Entrada. I obviously had a permit to enter. National Guard is still providing security for the homes. Military barracks, tents still set up near the beach. Utilities are trying to restore power on PCH. EPA is clearing hazardous debris. Flat beds removing burned cars. Most homes have been inspected for bodies and have been red, yellow or green tagged. Some streets are still not passable as burned homes fell down the hillsides onto the road.

If you live in a wildfire area, don't use vinyl fences, windows, gutters or downspouts. Make sure you have double pane tempered glass in metal windows only in your home. Make sure garage windows are glass. Do not use plastic skylights and tubes. Do not use wood fences. Use metal.

None of these photos are of clients' properties.

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Mary Cummins

Visited 750 Illif Home in Palisades, Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

I was in the burn area for an appraisal and dropped by 750 Iliff, Pacific Palisades, CA. Architect: Gregory Greg Chasen. Metal roof, no eaves, no attic, no vents, passive home, cement cladding, treated wood, cement walls, cement pavers and limited landscaping with gravel. It was raining that day. Barely a mark on the home. Below are a few more pics so you can see the front landscaping. It looks like part of the meter melted so they are being replaced.