Why Appraisal Values May Vary On The Same Property by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

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Why Do Some Appraisal Values Vary from Others on the Same Property? 

Lenders will order an appraisal so a borrower can get a home loan either for purchase or refinance. Sometimes the borrower doesn't receive the loan they want because of  credit, rates, terms or appraisal value. If they reapply for a loan, the second appraisal value is sometimes different than the first. 

There are many reasons why two appraisals may have different values for the same property. The differences could be due to changes in the market time or the property. In an appreciating market the second appraisal is generally higher because of the passage of time. The second appraisal could also be higher if the home has been improved. It's also possible that more similar homes have sold more recently for a different value than the previous sales used in the previous appraisal. This can be due to the seasonality of the real estate market and other factors. These different values don't automatically mean the first or second appraisal was wrong. Both values could be different and correct. Sometimes of course there are mistakes caused by incompetence. 

1. Home Price Appreciation/Depreciation in the Area

A real estate value is a snapshot in time. Recently we've been in an appreciating market.  Home prices have risen in value sometimes by 15% or more per year. If you appraise a say $100,000 property in January, it's worth $115,000 by the end of the year if appreciation for that area is 15%. The value didn't go up because you removed all photos from your home. It's appreciation. The same can happen with depreciation when values go down.

Some areas are going through the real estate cycle of revitalization which some call "gentrification."  Revitalization happens when people are pushed out of more expensive areas because of affordability into nearby areas which sell for less. This investment in the area and homes causes the area to improve and home prices to rise faster than surrounding areas. Many homes are then fully renovated by the newer owners and sell for much more than unrenovated original older homes. Recently some revitalizing areas have increased in value by 30% per year overall. This could mean an appraisal in December is 30% higher than one in January and both could be accurate market value for that time. 

2. Modifications to the Home

Sometimes after people are denied a loan for whatever reason they will improve the home. If you remodel a kitchen, baths, add air conditioning, a pool, a bedroom or add size to the home, the value after the modifications will be higher. If you gut part of your house to remodel it but don't finish, the value could go down. If you just remove personal photos, you won't change the value.

3. Recent Values of Similar Sold Homes

Sometimes some areas have few recent sales or listings of similar properties. People don't want to sell their home because of their low current mortgage rate like today's market. Sometimes there isn't much interest in an area because there is less demand because of issues which negatively affect the value. That could be a new freeway going right next to homes, loss of a major sports team, loss of major business and related jobs... Sometimes unique properties which are larger than the average home, built on a major road,  have odd improvements ... will take much longer to sell and rarely sell. Sometimes people prefer to wait for the selling season to sell to get higher prices. This means only mandatory sales of average homes take place such as death of owner, foreclosure or owner is desperate for money. These homes tend to be in fairer condition than most homes so they will sell for less. This drags down value.

Appraisers must use homes which sold within about the last three to six months within about a mile distance from the subject property in the same neighborhood. Appraisers are limited by the highest recent unadjusted sale of similar homes in the neighborhood. While appraisers can use older sold comparables and time adjust, some lenders still limit value to most recent closed comp. If the only homes that have sold recently are all major fixers, have fewer bedrooms, are not upgraded, don't have pools, are not right on the lake with a dock like the subject, this could limit the maximum value. The AMC, Lender set these limits. The appraiser must abides by them or the AMC, reviewer will send the appraisal back and demand comment and changes. In these situations lenders and appraisers suggest waiting for a similar higher priced property to close escrow before reappraising.

Quick example. The only homes that sold in the slow season in November, December, January were fixers in fair condition, no upgrades, no views, no pool and near a busy road. They sold for $100,000. The subject is in great condition, with many new upgrades, view of the ocean, pool and on a private cul-de-sac. It's clearly worth more than the recently sold total fixers maybe $150,000. Some lenders may limit the maximum valuation to the maximum sales price of similar sized homes recently sold in the same neighborhood, $100,000. If the borrower waits to refinance until April, May, June, there will probably be similar upgraded homes sold because more homes sell at this time of year. The value could be $150,000 based on sales in the $150,000 range. 

This brings us to the seasonality of real estate sales. Sometimes there are more homes sales during certain times of the year. Spring and early summer have more home sales as people prefer to sell, buy, move after school lets out before summer vacation. Sales volume is also related to weather. There are fewer sales in the winter where it snows or during heavy storms. Seasonality varies by area. This can cause there to be few similar sales during certain months of the year. The slowest months volume wise are November, December and January. The busiest are April, May and June. If you appraise your home for a refinance in November, there will probably be fewer sales to use as comps. It's also possible there are a higher percentage of stress sales during the slower months. Many stress sales are in fairer condition especially foreclosure and estate sales so they may sell for less which can negatively affect value. This article states seasonality can cause a 10% difference in price, value. There is more demand and buyers bidding against each other during the busy season which drives up prices. Some advise buying in the winter and selling in the summer for this reason. Besides seasonal cycles there are other cycles which affect sales volume and price such as economic cycles, interest rates, Covid pandemic, war, politics... This is reflected in the market by sales prices. The appraiser does not consider these things in the final valuation.

For this reason it's generally a good idea to see what similar homes have recently actually sold for in your area before applying for a loan to see if it makes sense. You will get a better rate, terms the lower the loan to value ratio so a borrower wants a higher appraisal value. While we include listed properties in the appraisal, sold properties are what matter. We generally search homes +/-15% difference in size per square foot, similar bed/bath count, similar amenities/upgrades/condition, within a mile distance from subject which sold within last three to six months. We then choose the most similar recent comparables. Lenders generally require three closed sales within three months. Those sales will limit the upper level of value.

4. Incompetence

Appraising homes can be a difficult complex process especially with unique homes in changing areas and markets. Many lenders use robot Automated Valuation Methods (AVMs) for cookie cutter homes. Cookie cutter homes are newer median priced average sized homes in average condition in a homogeneous area. If your home is older, larger than average for area, improved above/below most homes in the area, has a view, issues or is on the edge of two different areas, you will need a full appraisal. 

The appraiser must choose similar comps in the same neighborhood in order to get an accurate value. Sometimes there are no recent similar comps. The appraiser will have to use older similar comps instead of expanding the comp search into a totally different area. Those comps will have to be accurately adjusted for time and other differences. If the appraiser does not select similar comps, the resultant value will be inaccurate. That would be incompetence. Appropriate comp selection is vital.

One example of this is a case in Marin, California. The first appraisal was $989,000 February 2020. The second appraisal was $1,482,500 March 2020. The subject was larger than average for the area built with telephone poles on a very steep lot near reclaimed swamp land. There were few recent local sales because there was little demand in the area. The first appraiser used local sales. The second appraiser widened the search into an area with larger high quality homes that sell for almost twice as much in Mill Valley. 

The homeowners sued the first appraiser for "racial discrimination" just because they didn't like the first appraiser's lower value. The borrower wants a higher value because the higher the value, the better the terms and lower the rate. The first appraiser didn't do anything racist or discriminatory. The first value was similar to the robot values like Corelogic, RedFn... Robots can't be racist or discriminate. The second appraisal was actually the wrong value because they used the wrong comps. Borrowers never sue when the appraisal value is high even when it's wrong. If it's lower than what they'd like, they automatically assume bias or incompetence. Clearly it was the second appraiser who was biased and incompetent. Some appraisers fear complaints and want to please the lender, borrower so they tend to appraise on the higher side. I'd bet most appraisers over appraise than under. There is no motivation for an appraiser to appraise lower than market value. They have nothing to gain and everything to lose.

Here is one example which incorporates some of the factors which may cause two appraisals to be different. 

Appraisal One: Home appraised January 1 in area where it snows. It's in good condition, upgraded with two garages and a view. Home sales volume is low. The only recent sales were fixers with no garages or views selling for $100,000. Appraiser uses some old similar sales and time adjusts. Home appraises for $100,000. Appraiser notes that subject is in better condition with garages and a view. Appraiser explains the current market and lack of similar sales. Many appraisers would state home would appraise for more when/if similar homes close escrow. Appraisers generally state their limitations which can be the highest closed recent sale.

Appraisal Two: Home appraised June 1 when the weather is 75 degrees. Owner has since added a second bathroom. There are now some similar sales in the same condition with the same view. A new sports arena just announced it will break ground bringing a lot of new business and jobs to the area. The area has appreciated by 10% in six months for this reason. The home is now slightly larger and worth more. Similar homes now sell for $150,000. Home appraises for $150,000. The value of second appraisal is 50% higher than first. The first appraiser was not incompetent. Both appraisals were correct at the time they were made. This is why one must carefully read appraisal reports and consider all the factors that affect value.

Different appraisals done at different times can have different values and still be correct. There are many legitimate reasons for appraisals to vary in value by even 30% in a quickly changing market. It's natural for people to be psychologically attached to their home and assume it's the best in the area when that may not be true. Some homeowners receive agent postcards in the mail or see Zillow ads listing the highest sold and listed homes in their area. Agents, Zillow do this to attract sellers with potential high prices so they can get a listing and make money. Some borrowers assume their home which is in inferior condition and location is worth the same amount as those high priced listings when it's not. These false expectations cause people to feel they've been low-balled, cheated or discriminated against when they necessarily haven't. People who have been discriminated against for their entire life are more likely to assume discrimination. It's important to know your home and try to understand local value unbiasedly. It's also important to understand appraisal value when reading an appraisal report of your home.

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.

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