Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Animal Advocates, Los Angeles, California

Mary Cummins, Real Estate Appraiser, Animal Advocates, Los Angeles, California
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Saturday, March 26, 2022

AEI Reply to Pave Report, Andre Perry's misleading research and Freddie Mac's paper

Joe Biden, HUD, Marcia Fudge repeatedly cite Andre Perry's misleading paper on race and home values. Perry's paper is not published or peer reviewed research. It's deeply flawed in its execution and analysis. Race is not related to home valuation. Socio-economic status is related to income which is related to race which is related to the value of a home bought by a POC. Blacks make less money than whites. People with less money buy less expensive homes. The value of those homes are not being reduced by appraisers, appraisals or AVMs. 

This is a very well researched and written reply to Andre Perry's misleading paper. Perry conflates race with socio-economic status. SES is income, marital status, % single mothers with children under 18...) If you adjust for SES, the differences disappear. If you compare whites with low and high SES, the gap appears. This proves it's not a race issue but an income, SES issue. 

It's vitally important to know the real cause of the wealth gap between black and white so a proper solution can be applied. I've been stating that we need to fix the income gap to fix the wealth gap. Helping people with lower SES pay for a down payment won't help them down the line if they don't have enough income to easily make the mortgage payments. You just set them up for failure and bigger financial losses. This research is from Edward Pinto and Tobias Peter of from American Enterprise Institute (AEI).

https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Impact-of-Race-and-Socio-Economic-Status-on-the-Valuation-of-Homes-by-Neighborhood-3.18.21-final-revised-1.pdf

https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/aei-housing-center-response-to-perry-and-rothwell-2021/

This research brings up more flaws in Andre Perry's paper than I stated in my article about the research. Most importantly Perry intentionally did not include income stating it wouldn't affect the results. When income is included the value gap shrinks by half. Perry didn't include other important SES factors such as % single mother with children under 18. Everyone knows how expensive and difficult it is to work and raise young children as a single mother of any color. Perry also didn't include lot size, condition of neighborhood, condition of home, location next to natural amenities... I would bet Perry did this intentionally in order to show the results he desired. This is why his research was not published or peer reviewed. Thankfully AEI took it upon themselves to independently review the research. 

Other interesting findings from their report.

"We find that with higher incomes, Black borrowers increasingly chose neighborhoods, in which the Black share of residents is lower." "If Black and White neighborhoods are identical in every aspect except for price and their racial makeup (as Perry et al. claim), then why are Black buyers not taking advantage of lower priced homes in Black neighborhoods? It must be that Black buyers understand that White neighborhoods do have more amenities and those who can do so are willing to forego the “cheaper” homes in Black neighborhoods in order to get those amenities."

Income and marital status matter. "The Black homeownership (HO) rate is much lower than the White HO rate, but the difference gets smaller as income grows. The HO rate for White or Black married households (HH) is much higher than for unmarried White or Black HH."

"There is a big disparity by marital status between Blacks and Whites. Unmarried Black HH comprise 70% of Black HH, and the vast majority are below area median income." Their research has also shown more integration and increased income among blacks over time.

"Diagnosing the causes of the home value gap, along with a recognition of decreasing racial and ethnic segregation and increasing Socio-Economic Status (SES) stratification, helps in the consideration of appropriate policy solutions that will increase financial security and shrink the SES gap."

They offer some sound solutions at the end of the report.This is the type of real scientific fact based data that Joe Biden and HUD needs to see and use. Using Perry's report harms POC and will not help them. Perry is harming black people with his dishonest paper. I only posted the first part. Click the link to see the full article with data, charts and statistics. 

"On March 23rd, the Interagency Task Force on Property Appraisal and Valuation Equity and, which is composed of thirteen federal agencies and offices, released its report entitled “Action Plan to Advance Property Appraisal and Valuation Equity: Closing the Racial Wealth Gap by Addressing Mis-valuations for Families and Communities of Color.”

Commentary on PAVE’s conclusion:

PAVE concluded that “Homeownership is often hindered by inequities within current home lending and appraisal processes, which research shows disproportionately impact people in communities of color.”

As noted in the Executive Summary, the report largely rests on three studies for its conclusion: (i) a report by the Brookings Institution, (ii) a note by Freddie Mac, and (iii) a blog post by FHFA.[1] In our work, we have issued lengthy critiques that discredit the first two studies (see our rebuttal to Brookings and to Freddie Mac) and now take the opportunity to respond to the FHFA study.[2] Here is a summary of our findings:

The Brookings and Freddie Mac studies are not based on rigorous data analysis. Most importantly, they conflate race with socio-economic status (SES), i.e. income, buying power, marriage rates, credit scores, etc. Race-based gaps found in the Brookings and Freddie Mac studies either entirely or substantially disappear when adjusting for differences in SES. Furthermore, our analyses show that similar gaps are present in majority White or White-only tracts across different SES levels, raising serious questions regarding a race-based explanation.[3] We also addressed a rebuttal from the Brookings authors to our critique. We found that Perry and Rothwell’s (2021) rebuttal to our critique supported our claim of omitted variable bias, failed to rebuke our methodology, and never addressed our case studies. We also presented solutions based on our findings. The Freddie Mac study took pains to state that its research was both “exploratory” and “preliminary”. Yet PAVE accepted Freddie Mac’s findings at face value, even though research by Fannie Mae provides a likely, non-race based explanation for the valuation discrepancy found by Freddie Mac. It is worth noting that Fannie Mae’s explanation casts a favorable light on the appraisal industry.

This conflation by both Brookings and Freddie Mac is of critical importance. While there is agreement regarding the symptoms observed by PAVE–racial and ethnic differences in the homeownership rate, the financial returns of owning a home, and median wealth levels–ascertaining the causes and workable solutions requires a competition of ideas.[4] PAVE excluded research that was inconvenient or inconsistent with the desired narrative and conclusion.[5]"

Read the rest here. 

https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/comments-on-the-pave-report

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.


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