Jennifer Lopez JLo, Ben Affleck home at 10771 Bellagio Rd, Bel Air, California by Mary Cummins real estate appraiser

jennifer lopez, jlo, ben affleck, benjamin affleck, actor, singer, mary cummins, real estate appraiser, los angeles, 10771 bellagio, bel air, california, real estate, appraiser, appraisal, the bellagio house

Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck's new home is located at 10771 Bellagio Rd, Los Angeles, California 90077 (Google map). GPS 34.0802867132731, -118.45096879923662 It's 10 beds, 17 baths, 19,721 sf on 52,052 sf lot built in 1936 and extensively remodeled over the years with many new additions. It was originally built for Oscar Stuart Oldknow of Fox West Coast Theaters in 1936 by licensed architect S.C. Lee at a cost of $15,000. S.C. Lee designed movie theaters which is how he met the owner. Oldknow owned over 350 movie theaters in the 1930's. His wife played golf. Oscar died in 1951. Oscar's father was Georgia motion picture pioneer William Henry Oldknow. 1956 it was listed at $115,000. 1973 it was listed for sale for $325,000. It was originally one story 3 bed, 3 baths. Paul Williams was not the original architect. Maybe he designed part of a remodel later. I'm not positive. All data is public information from public government and other public sources. Nothing is confidential. I have never appraised this property.

AIN 4362-004-004. Area is Los Angeles City but also called Bel Air, Holmby Hills. The alleged sale price was $50,000,000. It has a view of the Bel Air Country Club, city, ocean and mountains.

General layout on the site. It's a "corner" lot on a major curve with lots of privacy. Lot is higher than surrounding area. Fantastic city view. 

jennifer lopez, jlo, ben affleck, benjamin affleck, actor, singer, mary cummins, real estate appraiser, los angeles, 10771 bellagio, bel air, california, real estate, appraiser, appraisal

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jennifer lopez, jlo, ben affleck, benjamin affleck, actor, singer, mary cummins, real estate appraiser, los angeles, 10771 bellagio, bel air, california, real estate, appraiser, appraisal

Original permit 1936.

jennifer lopez, jlo, ben affleck, benjamin affleck, actor, singer, mary cummins, real estate appraiser, los angeles, 10771 bellagio, bel air, california, real estate, appraiser, appraisal

Recent permit which shows layout.

jennifer lopez, jlo, ben affleck, benjamin affleck, actor, singer, mary cummins, real estate appraiser, los angeles, 10771 bellagio, bel air, california, real estate, appraiser, appraisal

Plat map. Curve on top right with the number "4" in a circle, lot 21. Tract 7656, lot 21.

jennifer lopez, jlo, ben affleck, benjamin affleck, actor, singer, mary cummins, real estate appraiser, los angeles, 10771 bellagio, bel air, california, real estate, appraiser, appraisal

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.

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Misleading False Race Related News from Bloomberg Analyzed by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

Bloomberg writers Shawn Donnan @sdonnan , Ann Choi @annjychoi , Hannah Levitt @hannahlevitt and Christopher Cannon @homiedonttweet just published an article titled "Wells Fargo Rejected Half Its Black Applicants in Mortgage Refinancing Boom. Fewer than half of Black applicants were approved by the biggest bank mortgage lender." This is an incredibly misleading article full of misinterpreted information and some fake data. (editors, contributors Robert Friedman @rfriedman305 Alex Tribou @AlexTribou David Scheer @david_scheer Jason Grotto @jasongrotto)

In the first anecdote with no evidence it's stated Mauise Ricard III tried to refinance a home he didn't live in. Non owner occupied is considered investment property. It's a riskier loan so there is always a higher rate, lower loan to value ratio and stricter loan requirements. They didn't charge him a higher rate because he's black. There is plenty of racism in this world but not everything is racism. Why didn't the writers talk to a loan agent or appraiser to get some accurate information? They wanted more traffic to their article so they intentionally made these false sensationalist claims of racism and outlandish click bait title. 

Let's start with some real facts based on real independent data. Whites make and have more money than blacks, Latinos. "As of 2020, black families have a median household income of just over $41,000, whereas white families have a median household income of more than $70,000." Ref. 1. People who make more money have more money, assets and a higher FICO score Ref. 2. They are a lower credit risk when it comes to loans because they are more likely to be able to afford to pay back the loans. The higher the FICO, the more likely you are to get loan approval, see top chart. Chart below shows the correlation between income and FICO scores. National Association of Realtors NAR research shows the higher the income, the less likely you are to be denied a loan. This is a money issue and not a race issue. 

People buy homes they can afford. Someone who makes less money will buy a less expensive home in a less expensive area because that is what they can afford. That is the correlation. If you want blacks to have higher credit ratings and own more expensive homes, help them make more money. Don't yell at banks and home appraisers for not giving them loans and not appraising their homes over market value. You can complain all day and banks, appraisers can't do anything to fix it. In fact when banks were allowed by the government to be looser with loans and home values were skyrocketing, black homeowners got loans then lost their homes in the great recession because they couldn't afford the payments. You would do a disservice to someone with less money, less income if you gave them a loan they couldn't afford because they are more likely to be foreclosed upon and lose their entire investment and home. You'd be hurting and not helping them.

Here's an analogy maybe people can more easily understand. Blacks and Latinos own cars which are in general worth less money than cars owned white people because they make and have less money. Is Kelly Blue Book the reason why black, Latino owned cars are worth less than white owned cars? No, it's because they bought less expensive cars to begin with because that is what they could afford. Why aren't these people calling KBB racist and biased like they're calling banks and appraisers? It would make just as much sense. 

The article goes on to state that whites were able to refinance more often than blacks in the recent real estate run up with low interest rates. This goes back to income inequality. Even if black, Latino owned homes increased in value, the borrower is still making the same amount of money. While the loan to value ratio is important your home loan amount is based on your ability to repay the loan. Banks don't want a repeat of the great recession where they gave loans to people with equity but no ability to repay those loans. People blamed appraisers for that when it was actually caused by less government oversight and the resulting loose lending. The government and people forced banks to give risky loans to blacks, Latinos and people with low credit ratings. They're trying to do it again now. They do it every time there is a run up in home values. When they did it before the great recession many poorer people just took all the equity out of their homes and spent it on personal items. Then they lost their homes. 

"Wells Fargo, which declined to comment about individual customers, didn’t dispute Bloomberg’s statistical findings. It says it treats all potential borrowers the same, is more selective than other lenders, and an internal review of the bank’s 2020 refinancing decisions confirmed that “additional, legitimate, credit-related factors” were responsible for the differences." (FYI the bank can't comment about individual customers to the media or anyone except the borrower based on privacy, confidentiality law)

Banks have the right to set their lending requirements based on finances. They can discriminate based on finances. After Wells Fargo's tough times a while back you can bet they will tighten lending requirements which is their right. Do people want them giving fast and loose loans to anyone then have another banking crisis and have to bail them out? Remember this below?!

"Wells Fargo agreed in 2012 to pay more than $184 million to settle federal claims that it unfairly steered Black and Hispanic homeowners into subprime mortgages and charged them higher fees and interest rates. The bank didn’t admit to any wrongdoing and said at the time that it treated all customers fairly regardless of race." (FYI government doesn't have to prove bias in these cases. They just have to show one race was treated differently than another).

Previously Wells Fargo gave loans to riskier borrowers and they defaulted. This goes back to income inequality. The less money your make and have, the more likely you are to default on a loan. This time around Wells Fargo decided to reject riskier borrowers and people claim racism, bias and discrimination. No win situation here. Damned it you lend to riskier borrowers, damned if you don't. 

"Rohit Chopra, head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, said at a press conference in October announcing a new push by the Justice Department and regulators to combat so-called redlining by financial institutions. Among the issues he singled out was the role of mortgage underwriting algorithms that banks have long used, calling the disparities in lending outcomes a sign of “digital redlining, disguised through so-called neutral algorithms.”"

The algorithm is based on income, assets, debts, loan to value ratio, debt to income ratio... Research based on millions of loans over decades has shown a positive correlation between higher income, more assets to the ability to repay a loan. The opposite correlates with the inability to repay a loan. It's not redlining. Credit cards, auto loans, other loans are based on the same FICO scores but they're not tied to a property address. That is how people have made lending decisions for centuries all over the world. If a nonprofit or the government wants to loan money to high risk people, let them do it. Don't force private businesses to do it especially government insured banks.

"Kristy Fercho, who in August 2020 became the first Black woman to oversee Wells Fargo’s home-lending business and its more than 25,000 employees, says the bank’s processes are race-blind and that its lending decisions were “consistent across racial and ethnic groups.” Any racial disparity in outcomes for refinancing in 2020 was the result of variables Wells Fargo doesn’t control, she and other executives say, including credit scores, the appraised value of homes and broader inequities in the U.S. economy."

Finally the article speaks a truth, "A typical White family had eight times more wealth than a Black one, according to a triennial Fed survey last published in 2019." And now a huge misleading statement, "The refinancing gap gets at the ability of Black families to build on the wealth they have. Not being able to refinance a home “means that people have less resources to invest in their children, less resources to start businesses, less resources to renovate their homes, less resources to buy additional homes,” says Andre Perry, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution whose 2018 study found that the average Black home was valued at $48,000 less than its White equivalent. That differential amounts to $156 billion in missing Black wealth."

Andre Perry's "study" is a paper written by himself that was not published or peer reviewed Ref 3. It was based on inaccurate Zillow robot home estimates. No appraisers were involved. Perry intentionally chose two very different groups made up of homes in areas where 0-1% were black and homes in areas well over 50% were black. He didn't know if the homes were owned by white or black people because it's impossible to tell ownership. He compared the very different group values to each other. He did not adjust for location because it's impossible to adjust for location. Everyone knows the main indicators of home value are location, location, location. That misleading paper based on a very small intentionally misleading sample allegedly showed a difference of $48,000 in value between homes in majorly white verses black areas. 

We again go back to the real research which shows whites make more money than blacks, Latinos. Again, people buy homes they can afford. Someone with only $1,000 and a low credit score is not going to buy a $5,000,000 home in Beverly Hills no matter what race they are. They may buy a $75,000 home in Detroit with government financing. Is the bank or appraiser responsible for the differences in value between the $5,000,000 home and the $75,000 home? Not in reality but according to the article they are. 

The article stated that blacks were even less likely to refinance more recently. This goes back to income, credit rating. Even if their home appreciated in value their income, assets, credit rating stayed the same. Banks are more cautious after the great recession. They now make sure people can pay back the loan, make the loan payments based on their income.

Finally after reading the entire article they post a truth, "A 2021 study by Fed researchers given access to a privileged version of the same data used by Bloomberg that included applicants’ credit scores showed racial gaps can be largely attributed to those scores and the recommendations automated underwriting systems make to lenders." Credit scores are the main indicator of underwriting decisions! 

Of course the article went on to state that the credit score algorithm is biased and should be changed. It should include rent payments. Fine, let it include rent payments then do some research to see how that affects ability to repay home loans. Clearly it would only affect first time buyers as second time buyers don't pay rent.

The article then promotes the false biased appraiser myth. Then the article stated that banks raised the credit scores needed to get loans after the great recession which they state is not fair for black people. These people complained when black people lost their homes after the great recession and now they're complaining that they can't get a loose and easy loan? The only way some of these people will be happy is if people just gave them free money and houses. They might think that is fair. 

The authors end their article on the big lie, "He and his wife moved their young family to a bigger home in the more expensive, and predominantly White, Fulton County suburb of Sandy Springs in 2017 to be closer to better schools. (snip)” The move has also given him a rare perspective on the economics of segregation. His new home and those around it are valued far higher than those in the predominantly Black southwestern Fulton County suburb they left behind, where they still own the property they sought to refinance with Wells Fargo. But Ricard says he pays almost as much for the home insurance on his old home, which he now rents out, as his new one."

Ricard wanted to move out of his old predominantly black neighborhood into a predominantly white neighborhood per his own words. He was willing to pay more for a home in a different whiter location. He noted the better schools. Property taxes pay for most of a school's budget. Property taxes are based on home values. The higher the home values, the more money for schools and the better they are. There is also a correlation with lower crime. Lower crime, lower home insurance rates. Of course his insurance is lower in the more expensive neighborhood. This has nothing to do with segregation today. These are all common sense facts for anyone especially anyone in finance, banking and real estate. 

I believe these writers wrote this article knowing full well it's totally inaccurate. The real cause of the wealth gap between whites and blacks is the income gap. Fix the income gap and you will fix the wealth gap. White and black owned homes would eventually appraise the same if their incomes were the same. Stop blaming banks and appraisers for the income gap. Stop spreading this false and misleading misinformation. This misinformation has been weaponizing race to further divide our nation. Racism is a big enough problem as it is. We must do everything we can to stop racism but false and misleading articles like this just make it worse. They detract from the real issues of racism. 

*I sent this blog article to all of the writers, contributors and editors of this misleading article.

Article: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-wells-fargo-black-home-loan-refinancing/

Ref. 1. Szapiro, Aron (October 6, 2020). "Can Baby Bonds Shrink the Racial Wealth Gap?". Morningstar.com. Retrieved October 8, 2020.

Ref. 2. People who make more money, have more money and a higher FICO score.August 13, 2018. "Are Income and Credit Scores Highly Correlated?" Rachael Beer, Felicia Ionescu, and Geng Li1

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/are-income-and-credit-scores-highly-correlated-20180813.htm

Ref. 3. Andre Perry's paper is based on erroneous data and contains major statistical and analytical errors making the results meaningless.

https://mary--cummins.blogspot.com/2021/06/false-statement-by-president-joe-biden.html

Chart below shows loan approval rating for difference FICO scores for FHA loans. They have looser requirements. Still, the higher the FICO, the higher the chance of loan approval.

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.

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Some Lenders promoting false "racist appraiser" narrative to optimize profits via AVMs, by Mary Cummins real estate appraiser

mary cummins, real estate appraiser, los angeles, califoria, lender, amc, avm, hybrid appraisal, racism, bias, discrimination, bettermortgage, urban league, andre perry, house canary, zillow

Like most businesses lenders want to optimize their profits. One way to make more money besides charging more is to pay less in costs and fees. One way for the lender to do that is to pay the appraiser less or just get rid of them and use a free or very inexpensive Automated Valuation Method (AVM). 

I personally don't care if a lender or borrower wants to use an AVM. There is enough business out there for appraisers because not all appraisals are for loans and not all government insured loans allow AVMs. They generally don't allow them in higher risk situations such as high loan to value (LTV) ratio, cash out, lower credit score ... 

My only issue with the use of AVMs instead of a full inspection appraisal has to do with the borrower. The borrower could get a lower value, resulting smaller loan and pay more for that loan due to higher LTV ratio i.e. risk, if the property is better than average for the neighborhood. AVMs are biased against properties that are anything other than average in every respect.

AVMs assume average condition, location, view, quality...  (Ref 1). If you're buying a better than average home for the area, higher quality, fully remodeled, in a better location in the neighborhood with a great view, the value will come in lower than true market value with an AVM. If you're buying a home priced less than most in the area in fair condition with no view or upgrades, an AVM will give you a higher value and a higher loan amount. You could end up upside down with no equity if you accept a higher loan. 

My issue is with lenders and others who are using and promoting the false "racist white appraiser" narrative to market themselves and AVMs as less biased just to increase their profits. They are glomming onto misleading data and false media articles to use for their marketing purposes at the expense of the borrower and the reputation of appraisers. Yes, racist appraisers exist but not all valuations are based on racism and bias. Below are some quotes used by lenders and others to promote this false narrative. 

House Canary. "HouseCanary hopes its tech can help solve appraisal bias."

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/housecanary-hopes-its-tech-can-help-solve-appraisal-bias-can-it/

Their true agenda shines through in the article, "While a typical appraisal could cost $400 to $500 and take several weeks, HouseCanary says it can perform a “condition-informed evaluation” within one to four days, for $100." Who cares if it costs the lender less. The lender doesn't pass on these savings to the borrower. The lender will charge any fee they think they can get. I've had borrowers contact me and ask why their appraisal was $1,100. I only got paid $350. They also asked about the $300 charge for a review appraisal. There was no review appraisal. I've bought and sold properties. I've found plenty of junk fees that would have gone to the lender. Even if a lender tells you there are no points, appraisal fees, you are paying it in the rate. Nothing is free except maybe the AVM at least for the lender. 

An inaccuracy in the article, "There’s nothing about an appraiser that’s better than someone you’ve literally trained (to inspect, measure, take photos of a home) for a few days." 

Appraisers bring years of experience to the table. I've appraised over 20,000 properties and have taken over 1,350 hours of education. We can see major defects and other things which would negatively affect value. Someone with only a few days of training will miss a cracked foundation, water damage in the basement or attic, uneven floors, tilting walls, mold, unpermitted addition, additions not done to code, additions that don't meet basic health and safety code for the city, county, state; missing safety features, area which is not ANSI legal gross living area GLA, evidence of a meth house, manufactured house verses stick built, effect of nearby power station, industrial properties, within 500 feet of a freeway, flight path, a skim coated floor to cover uneven floors, evidence of asbestos... A licensed appraiser would probably call for inspection by a licensed expert for major issues if they saw it. This could save a buyer hundreds of thousands of dollars down the line if they read a full inspection appraisal report. There's no inspection report to read in an AVM. If you had a hybrid appraisal with a non-appraiser inspecting it, you don't get an inspection report that could tell you more about the true condition. The appraiser hasn't seen the property, comparables or exact neighborhood in a hybrid appraisal.

Appraisers can also see items which add to value such as degree of view (180 degree ocean view, peek-a-boo canyon/tree view, view of the side of an apartment building), specific location in a tract development (on a hill, cul-de-sac, busy corner, near industrial), quality of construction, specific types of very good materials... 

A typical appraisal generally doesn't take several weeks unless you're in some rural areas. This is another misnomer used to argue for cheaper AVMs. An AVM would still be faster unless you ordered a rush appraisal to be completed in 24-48 hours. A hybrid appraisal takes the same amount of time as a full appraisal. A wait of a few days for a full appraisal would be worth it to the buyer, borrower. 

BetterMortgage. Better Mortgage uses race to sell loans and promote themselves as "diverse." "Several studies have shown that people tend to subconsciously associate with their own race more positively, and 96.5% of all real estate appraisers are white. Between 2015 and 2020, appraisal gaps came up at a rate of 15.4% for Latino-majority neighborhoods, and 12.5% in areas with a majority of Black homeowners.

If an appraiser’s evaluation feels off, don’t be afraid to get a second appraisal. It also helps to work with companies that are committed to diversifying their team. Starting next month, Better will be hiring and training a pipeline of 120 in-house appraisers who are representative of the communities they serve."

The numbers above came from a Freddie Mac study that compared appraisal values to AVMs appraised values and the contract price. (It was Fannie Mae who compared to their AVMs). In some areas the appraisal values were lower than Freddie Mac's own AVMs and contracts and in other areas they were higher. The Freddie Mac study stated they don't know the cause of the differences. "First, our analysis has not yet determined the full root cause of the gap." Danny Wiley of Freddie Mac stated "We have not reached any conclusion for cause of the gaps or correlation." The gap could have many causes such as revitalizing areas and condition. AVMs assume average condition, average everything. Perhaps the homes appraised by appraisers over AVM values were in better condition than average, better than average location, better than average view, upgrades...

BetterMortgage never hired or trained those diverse appraisers. They instead soon after the press release fired 900 people then 3,000 more. It was all talk to drum up business and investors. 

https://better.com/content/what-you-should-know-about-home-appraisals/

Urban League. Urban League is not a lender but they have been promoting the same false narratives and the misleading paper because it supports their beliefs. Racism and bias exist but not all appraisers, appraisals are biased. "AVMs could correct for racial bias from appraisers evaluating homes and the conditions in majority-Black neighborhoods." "Automated valuation models, or AVMs, hold great promise for reducing the costs of and increasing the accuracy of home valuations. They allow financial institutions to estimate a home’s value with a reduced role for human opinion. By limiting the human element, estimating a home’s value should become less expensive and more accurate." "Many housing experts believed that widespread appraisal bias contributed to the housing crisis. In-person appraisals are susceptible to charges of racial discrimination and human bias."

Appraisal bias had nothing to do with the great recession. The great recession had to do with deregulation and a market bubble. Lenders offered no doc high risk loans to anyone and everyone. Some had low teaser rates which adjusted to high mortgage payments which people could not afford. After the bubble burst, values dumped and people let their homes go back to the bank. Appraisers get blamed for every financial crisis from the S&L crisis, great recession and now appraisal gaps. These issues have never been the fault of the appraiser. Appraisers don't make values. We merely report them as the messenger.  We are just the usual scapegoat. 

https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/103429/how-automated-valuation-models-can-disproportionately-affect-majority-black-neighborhoods_1.pdf

One important issue here is the alleged research upon which the "racist appraiser" narrative is based. It's just a personal paper written by Andre Perry. It was not published or peer reviewed independent research. The false summary of this paper is that most black owned homes are "appraised" for less than white owned homes by an average of $46,000 each. Appraisers and appraisals have allegedly "devalued," "stolen money" from black homeowners which is totally false.

This data was based on AVMs and not valuations by appraisers. There were no appraisers involved in the research yet people are stating this proves appraisers are racist. On top of this the data came from failed inaccurate Zillow. Everyone knows the "a" in "Zillow" stands for accuracy. Zillow is probably the least accurate AVM out there. The data actually just shows that people with less money buy and own homes which cost and are worth less than people with more money. They buy what they can afford. They never adjusted for home location or income, net worth of homeowner in the data. Research has shown that whites make and have more money than black people, POC. Income equality is the real issue which must be solved not appraisers and home valuations. Whites also buy more expensive cars. Did appraisers and Kelly Blue Book's online AVM "steal" money from cars owned by POC? No. They buy less expensive cars to begin with.

Today's political climate has clearly changed. "The country is in a time of racial reckoning, heightened by a summer of protests against systemic racism and police brutality following the death of George Floyd in police custody." Floyd's death "sparked the largest racial justice protests in the United States since the Civil Rights Movement." "According to data from various sources, the Black Lives Matter movement is now the largest movement in US history." While racism exists and must be banished from our nation the pendulum has now swung to the extreme side. In this new light anything and everything is automatically "racist" today before even looking at the facts. Some have even been weaponizing race and other issues for their own agenda. 

The other misleading information about alleged "racist appraisers" comes from false media articles. One major one which finally made it to the courts is Austin v Miller. In this widely publicized media article and lawsuit the Plaintiffs argue that using similar homes which have sold in the same neighborhood as their home to value their home is "racist" and "biased." Austins wanted the appraiser to use comps "in the whiter areas" over a mile away instead of the "black area." These are exact quotes from the lawsuit linked above. Per law and the appraisal itself values are based on similar sales in the same neighborhood. The appraiser was not biased. 

Here are a couple of other false and misleading case, Carlette Duffy in Indianapolis, Indiana and Cora Robinson in Oakland, California. Based on my research the second appraisals were incorrect and higher than market value. They used comps from superior areas much farther away from the subject. 

Every appraisal value you don't like is not the result of a racist appraiser intentionally low balling you because of your race, color, ethnicity... Full inspection appraisals are not inherently racist or biased. AVMs are not racist but they are biased against any home other than an average home. Median and average home sold prices are built into the AVM formula, the algorithm. 

Racism is very real. Some people are absolutely racist and express that in their behavior. We all must fight racism. Wasting time on a non-racist issues takes away from real issues of racism and bias. Using the false "racist biased appraiser" narrative to promote AVMs, hybrids to make money at the expense of other people is wrong. 

I read the below article published the day after I wrote this article. People are noticing the anti-appraiser agenda. Jeremy Bagott of Appraiser Blogs, Certified General Real Estate Appraiser at Bender Rosenthal Inc., former newspaper man. 

https://appraisersblogs.com/anti-appraiser-agenda-follow-the-money

References

Ref 1 Corelogic, "AVMs assume all properties are in similar average market value.condition. They cannot adjust values down for disrepair or damage. Similarly, they cannot adjust values up for good upkeep or cosmetic upgrades, such as new carpet or paint. The AVM has no knowledge of the condition of a particular property."

 https://www.corelogic.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/downloadable-docs/about-automated-valuation-models.pdf

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.

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Carnation Milk Building 5045, 5055 Wilshire Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90036, by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

Carnation Milk Building, Los Angeles, California, 90036, 5045 Wilshire Blvd, 5055 Wilshire, Architect Stiles Clements, Mary Cummins, real estate appraiser, real estate appraisal, 1949

In 1948 Carnation began construction of their new world corporate headquarters located at 5045 Wilshire Blvd, Los Angeles, California 90036. There was also a cafeteria and parking area. The building was nine stories and was built at a cost of $2,000,000. Architect was Stile Oliver Clements and contractor, builder was William Simpson. It included 5075 Wilshire which was a restaurant, cafeteria next door. The grand opening was August 31, 1949 which was also Carnation's 50th Anniversary since the company was founded in 1899. The company was founded by Elbridge Amos Stuart. (Information from Los Angeles Times article August 30, 31, 1949).

The new building included the planting of six 78' tall palm trees which were taken from Manhattan Blvd nearby. There was originally a stream on the site which caused issues when they were building it. The stream was directed below the property when nearby developers built another building diverting it. For this reason the building is built on 645 steel pilings. 

The current addresses are 5045, 5055, 5075 Wilshire Blvd. ( Google map ). The building is 78,486 sf  on a 190,237 sf street to street lot. It was originally nine stories and a penthouse for a total of ten floors. In 1993 there was an addition of an "11" story building directly to the west of the original building. It was actually 10 floors and a basement. The original was built with an elevator and air conditioning. The neon letters on the west side were 57' long and the "C" was 17' tall.

The current owners are Dsg Wilshire LLC & Jw Wilshire LLC. It's currently assessed at about $52,000,000 per the Los Angeles County Tax Assessor. Assessment does not equal value. Today the main address is 5055 Wilshire Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90036, Census tract 2110, Tract 5049, zoned LAC4. Legal description is TR=5049 VAC STS,EX OF ST LOT 119 AND ALL OF LOTS 116,117 AND 118 . This information is for people trying to find records for the property. They're not under the address or original APN, lot numbers.

Below is a photo of the Carnation Building in 1978 before the addition.

Carnation Milk Building, Los Angeles, California, 90036, 5045 Wilshire Blvd, 5055 Wilshire, Architect Stiles Clements, Mary Cummins, real estate appraiser, real estate appraisal, 1949

Below is what it looks like today after the addition and remodel in 1993. The part on the left is the newer addition.

 

Carnation Milk Building, Los Angeles, California, 90036, 5045 Wilshire Blvd, 5055 Wilshire, Architect Stiles Clements, Mary Cummins, real estate appraiser, real estate appraisal, 1949

https://thesomersetgroup.com/properties/5055-wilshire-boulevard/

Below are the original permit, 1993 addition, certificates of occupancy and the plat map. There was a lot tie among all the lots which is why the lot numbers, APNs and addresses keep changing. 

Carnation Milk Building, Los Angeles, California, 90036, 5045 Wilshire Blvd, 5055 Wilshire, Architect Stiles Clements, Mary Cummins, real estate appraiser, real estate appraisal, 1949

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.

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What is an Automated Valuation Model AVM? The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, by Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser

automated valuation model, automated valuation method, robot appraisal, algorithm, math formula, avm, appraisal, mary cummins, los angeles, california, real estate appraisal, appraiser, zillow, redfn, trulia, realtor, realist, realavm, fha, corelogic

Automated valuation models (AVMs) are statistically based computer programs that use real estate information such as comparable sales, property characteristics, and price trends to provide a current estimate of market value for a specific property.

Most people are familiar with Zillow and Zillow's Zestimate of home value. Zillow themselves have stated the Zestimates are not an appraisal. Below is their main disclaimer.

"The Zestimate® home valuation model is Zillow’s estimate of a home’s market value. A Zestimate incorporates public, MLS and user-submitted data into Zillow’s proprietary formula, also taking into account home facts, location and market trends. It is not an appraisal and can’t be used in place of an appraisal."

Real estate appraisers have always said "the 'a' in 'Zillow' is for 'accuracy.'" In light of Zillow's recent ibuyer program failure everyone now realizes they are not accurate. So what is the problem with AVMs?

The main issue with AVMs is the quality of the data. We all know Garbage In, Garbage Out or GIGO. Zillow and other AVMs such as Trulia, RedFn, RealAVM, Realtor, CoreLogic use a proprietary formula and public data to make their estimates. They also allow the public to edit their data and use false MLS data from real estate agents. They do not actually look at the home. They don't know the condition. Is it a full high quality remodel or ready to be demolished. They assume average condition. They don't know the amenities, upgrades, view (ocean, lake, freeway, back of an industrial building), additions, neighborhood boundaries (Bel Air proper or the flats of Los Angeles), exact location/neighborhood (on the ocean, a lake, in a gated community, built on an old landfill, next to the freeway and industrial properties)...and many other very important factors. They assume all properties in area have the same view and specific location. They don't even know if the home actually exists or burned down last year. 

This of course makes their estimates vary widely and results in an inaccurate and biased valuation. Zillow's own research has shown that their accuracy is not as good in areas with little public data. Not all Tax Assessors, Building and Safety, MLS list data or more important recent accurate data online publicly. Some states don't report sales prices publicly. This goes back to GIGO. 

I have found and Zillow has admitted publicly that their accuracy is lower in the extremes. Homes which fall on the lower and higher end of the price ranges for areas tend to have less accurate estimates. Zillow also admitted that they are less accurate in areas with older homes. There is no way for a computer program to tell if a home has been fully remodeled or needs to be demolished. This makes it less accurate in areas which are revitalizing. Some call revitalization "gentrification." 

Inaccurate valuations are bad for everyone. If you're a homeowner and the bank offers to waive the appraisal in exchange for using an AVMs, this can cause problems. If you upgraded your property, you probably won't be getting added value for all your upgrades especially if most homes in the area aren't upgraded. If your home has one of the best views in the area or the largest lot, the AVM won't see that value either. You will get a lower valuation. The rate you pay for the loan is based on the loan to value LTV ratio. The higher the appraised value, the lower the LTV and the less risk for the bank. The less risk, the lower the cost of the loan, the lower the rate, the less likely you are to have to pay mortgage insurance. If you're looking to get some cash out, you would get less cash out of the deal with a lower valuation. Using the AVM just puts $350-$500 more money into the hands of the lender. It doesn't save YOU any money no matter what they say. 

Now if you have the worst house in the neighborhood in bad condition, an AVM would be to your benefit. They will most likely over value it. If you are buying said home, you might incorrectly over pay for the home assuming it's worth more. This is why investors should never rely on AVMs. An appraisal by a licensed appraiser is like $350 insurance. You will get an unbiased independent full valuation of the property. $350 is a lot better than paying $100,000 more than what it's really worth. 

I'll quickly go into how appraisers valuate homes so you can understand the basic AVM algorithm a little. This is a basic simplified search. We generally search for sales and listings as similar to the subject as possible. We use the computer to search for sales, listings within a 1/2 mile radius from the subject that have sold within the last 90 days which are +/- 15% difference in gross living area. We then choose the best comps based on location, size, bed/bath count, view, condition, amenities... Sometimes there are no recent sold comps so we have to go back a year or so and adjust for appreciation/depreciation over time. 

This is where having someone who has inspected and actually viewed the subject property is so important. This is also why it's so important to have an appraiser with years of experience who knows the area very well. A math formula can't see  the condition, view, real bed/bath count, upgrades, amenities, specific location in a neighborhood... They generally only see tax roll and MLS size, bed/bath count, number of garages, pool. Those are very rarely accurate. Tax roll is generally the original size. Real estate agents lie in MLS ads about everything. You won't know the real full bedroom and full bathroom count of the subject or comps without an appraiser. 

The appraiser also views the sold and listed comparables. Are they tear downs selling for land value or totally remodeled with new additions that don't yet show up on the tax roll? Does the subject have an ocean view but sold comparables face a loud ugly freeway? Is it a full bedroom with it's own door or a walk through bedroom or just a den? Is it a half bath, full bath or just a toilet in the basement? These are very important factors which can make the value differ by up to 100%. The AVM will never know all of those things about a property. This is why they are not accurate. 

Recently I saw a property with AVMs that varied from $750K to $1.9M. Zillow, Trulia, RedFn came in  way too high at about the same price. Realtor, CoreLogic RealAVM came in at market based on my own valuation after looking at the property. I realized the problem with the values when I saw the comps that Zillow, Trulia, RedFn showed for the subject. They were using comps from 1.5 miles away in a neighborhood that sells for twice as much as subject's neighborhood. That neighborhood sells for so much more because the homes are very high quality, they have the best school system in the state, lots of local shopping and a low crime rate. This was a Beverly Hills versus Watts comparison. Clearly Zillow, Trulia, RedFn algorithms are wrong. They cannot define a comparable neighborhood. 

The issue had to do with the size of the subject and recent sales. It was larger than most homes that had sold recently. The homes directly around subject were all the same size built at the same time but they hadn't sold recently. Instead of going back in time to find an older sale of a similar size and time adjusting for appreciation, Zillow kept widening the search until it found comps of a similar size that had sold recently. That was a huge mistake. An appraiser would never base their value on homes from a totally different neighborhood which generally sells for twice as much. Remember, the three main indicators of value are location, location, location. This is why AVMs are so inaccurate and should not be used for valuations. 

AVMs are just an algorithm based on a math formula. Some of the math formulas like Zillow are deeply flawed. They don't know neighborhood boundaries or the true characteristics of the properties. A math formula is only as good as the data used in the calculations. Because the AVM is not a live experienced licensed appraiser who has actually inspected the property and neighborhood the resulting value will never be accurate. 

Please, do not rely on AVM valuations for real property values. If you are refinancing your home and your home is upgraded or has superior features than most homes in your area, you will be better off requesting a full appraisal. The lender will be paying for the appraisal so it costs you nothing. The lender just wants to save a few dollars for themselves by going with the free AVM. If your home is almost a tear down, use the AVM ;-)

References

List of different AVMs

Freddie Mac: Home Value Explorer® (HVE®) 
Zillow: Zestimate
Realtor.com: Collateral Analytics, CoreLogic Total Home Value for Marketing, Quantarium
Redfn: Redfin Estimate
Trulia: Trulia Estimates
RealAVM™ is a CoreLogic® product
Fannie Mae: AVM 1 (data assessment/ integrity checks, comparable selection, comparable adjustment, and reconciliation), AVM 2

CoreLogic actually has a few patents related to their AVMs as does Zillow. Here is the patent for their main AVM model. The description is very interesting. It deals with the issues of geographical neighborhoods and number of sales during set time periods, i.e. spatial and temporal distinctions. This is why they're more accurate than Zillow and had the correct AVM for the Marin, California property noted above. They have a better spatiotemporal understanding of the nature of real estate. They even stated that a "property value given by an appraiser can vary, sometimes erratically, depending on the comparable properties chosen in performing the appraisal." They stated sometimes there are no sales during the short range of time used by appraisers. This is why it's better to go back in time and time adjust if there are no sales rather than widen the geographical search area. The location factor carries a lot more value weight.

https://patents.justia.com/patent/20130144798

Here's one Zillow patent which goes into their algorithm, math formula. They're clearly mainly relying on median and average calculations.

https://patents.justia.com/patent/8676680

Great article on the issues and problems with AVMs. They're not standardized especially their reported confidence scores, Forecast Standard Deviation FSD and error rates. 

https://vegaeconomics.com/webfiles/Principles%20for%20Calculating%20AVM%20Performance%20Metrics.pdf

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.

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March is Women's History Month. Let's Celebrate Women in Real Estate, by Mary Cummins

womens history month, women, history, month, march, mary cummins, real estate appraiser, real estate, appraiser, appraisal, los angeles, california, equality, wage gap, trust, research, comfortable

Women's History Month is an annual declared month that highlights the contributions of women to events in history and contemporary society. It's celebrated in March in the United States.

Up until around 1920 or so women were not real estate agents or appraisers. It was a predominantly male occupation. Today most real estate agents are women. Most real estate appraisers are still men but the number of women is growing. I personally feel over time the number of female appraisers will be over 50% for the same reason the number of female agents is over 50%. Both jobs involve a similar skill set. 

I'd like to take this opportunity to talk about the benefits of having a woman real estate appraiser. I am not knocking the men at all. I know many male real estate appraisers who are wonderful appraisers and people whom I'd definitely allow to appraise my home. All appraisers must be licensed for government insured loans. Licensed appraisers have to pass Department of Justice and AMC background checks to make sure they have not been convicted of a financial or violent crime. Women just have something different to offer clients and the homeowner. 

Some people feel more comfortable having a woman walking around and taking photos of their home, family, pets, personal property, security system... Based on my experience a woman is more likely to be the sole person at home with children during a home inspection. Some women and children who have experienced certain traumas will feel more comfortable with a woman appraiser.  Research has shown that women are more likely to trust other women. 

Research has shown that women are more nurturing and empathetic than men. Research has shown that women are less likely to be the perpetrators of violent or sexual crime. Other research has shown that women are more likely to be the victim of sexual crimes. People of different cultures and religions may relate to women differently than men. In some cultures women must have their face, head and body fully covered in front of men but not other women. For all these reasons in general children, women, elderly, people of different cultures/religions may feel more comfortable with a woman appraiser. 

Women in the US have made many strides over time such as procuring voting rights (19th Amendment, 1920), ability to have a bank account in their own name (1960's), ability to own their own property (Mississippi 1839), ability to get a credit card or loan (Equal Credit Opportunity Act EOCA, 1974) and ability to work in certain vocational fields like real estate (1920's). We still have the general male/female wage gap and other issues we need to work on. Women will continue to make strides toward equality with men in the work force and world in general. 

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.

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Mary Cummins Real Estate Appraiser, Resume, Curriculum Vitae, Biography, Los Angeles, California

Mary Cummins, resume, curriculum vitae, job history, real estate appraiser, Los Angeles, California, work history, biography, real estate appraisal, real estate, appraiser, appraisal, marycumminscurriculumvitae

Curriculum Vitae

 

Abstract

Cummins is a bilingual Latino real estate appraiser born and raised in Los Angeles, California with over 38 years of experience. Cummins has appraised over 20,000 residential, multi-family, income, land, industrial, mixed-use properties and construction projects for lenders, AMCs, lawyers, relocation companies, banks and individuals. Cummins has passed the Department of Justice and SterlingBackcheck background checks multiple times. There has never been any complaint, claim or lawsuit against any license. A la mode Total software. Combined LA/Westside MLS member. E&O insurance $1,000,000 no claims.

Education 

•  Beverly Hills High School 1982 - Dean's list, Swim Team, Water Polo

•  University of Southern California 1984 - Dean's list, Swim Team, Scholarship

Licenses, Certifications

•  Real Estate Sales License 1984

•  Real Estate Brokers License 1986

•  California Notary Public 1989

•  Real Estate Appraisal License CertifiedResidential 1993 (First Mandatory 1994)

•  HUD/FHA Approved Real Estate Appraiser 

Work Experience

•  1984 Merrill Lynch Real Estate - Sales, Comparative Market Analysis

•  1984 to present - Cummins Real Estate Services - Real Estate Appraisal, Sales

•  1985 Apartment Owners Association - Commercial Brokerage Division

•  1986 Forensis Group - Expert Witness

•  1990 Westside Properties - Real Estate Appraisal, Sales. 100% office 

Selected Legal Cases

•  1989 Schine vs Schine - Appraisal of Ambassador Hotel as land for development project with Donald Trump. Deposed.

•  Various cases for Forensis Group 1986-2006

•  2009 Union Pacific vs Jimmy Nasralla. Criminal. Court appearance.

•  2010 Don Carstens vs JP Morgan. Civil. Deposed. Court appearance.

•  2013 Narrative Appraisal for LA Metro Eminent Domain

Courts

•  United States Bankruptcy Court California

•  Los Angeles County Superior Court Civil

•  Los Angeles County Superior Court Criminal

•  Riverside County Superior Court Civil 

Selected Clients

•  Crestview Financial

•  Don Carstens, Attorney at Law

•  Home Savings Bank

•  Wells Fargo

•  Chase Financial, Bank

•  Forensis Group, Expert Witness

•  Western Relocation Services 

Selected Professional Education 1,350+ hours

•  1984 Lumbleau School of Real Estate - Real estate sales

•  1984 to present - Various real estate schools: Expert Witness Testimony, Appraising Apartments, Oddball Appraisals, USPAP, FHA Appraising, Appraising Manufactured Homes, Environmental Issues for Appraisers, Fair Housing, LEED Real Estate, Foundations in Sustainability: Greening the Real Estate and Appraisal Industries, Review Appraisals, REO and Foreclosures, The Cost Approach.

•  1985 Merrill Lynch - Real estate sales, CMA

•  1986 Lumbleau School of Real Estate - Real estate broker – 8 College Courses

•  1986 Apartment Owners Association - Income property evaluation and sales

•  2014 2 - 4 Family Finesse 06167C167

•  2014            The Sales Comparison Approach 14CP167303029

•  2014            Understanding Residential Construction  14CP167303033

•  2014 The Nuts and Bolts of Green Building for Appraisers 10167C114

•  2014            Even Odder: More Oddball Appraisals 08167C181

•  2014 Appraising FHA Today - Virtual classroom 06167C169

•  2014            Laws and Regulations for California Appraisers 12167C163

•  2014 2014-2015 7 hour National USPAP Update Course 13CP167303017

•  2014            Appraising Manufactured Homes            11167C134

•  2014            Land and Site Valuation 08167C187

•  2014 Mortgage Fraud- Protect Yourself 08167C179

•  2016 2016-2017 7 Hour National USPAP Update Course 15CP167303053

•  2018 2018-2019 7- Hour Equivalent USPAP Update Course 1810000011

•  2018            FHA Site Inspection for Appraisers 1610000007

•  2018 California Laws and Regulations for Appraisers 1710000010

•  2018            Mold A Growing Concern  1310000004

•  2018            Appraising Energy Efficient Residential Properties 1710000008

•  2018            Environmental Hazards Impact on Value 1210000001

•  2018            Construction Details From Concept to Completion 1710000009

•  2018            A Brief Historic Stroll Through America's Architectural Styles 1310000003

•  2020 2020-2021 7-Hour Equivalent USPAP Update Course           2010000012

Selected Seminars, Webinars

•  2020 California Preservation Foundation webinar: Learning from Large-Scale Adaptive Reuse Projects

•  2021 HUD: Advancing Equity in the Home Valuation Process

•  2021 Freddie Mac, Appraisal Institute: Property Valuation, Appraisal Bias, & Black Homeownership

•  2021 ClearCapital: Does Your Appraisal Data Include Racial Bias?

•  2021 HUD: National Fair Housing Training Academy, Collateral Damage: The Consequences of Racial Bias in the Residential Appraisal Process

•  2021 Richard Hagar, SRA: Six-Part Appraiser Webinar series

  How to Determine Land Values, Even Where There Are No Sales

  Comparables: What to Use and What to Do When You Can't Find Any

  Why the Cost Approach is Valuable (and Helps You Earn Higher Fees)

  Easy Ways to Determine Condition Adjustments

  How a Regression Analysis Can Help Determine Adjustments

  Fighting Pressure and Intimidation

• 2021 Consumer Finance Protection Bureau: Home Appraisal Bias Event

• 2021 Fannie Mae: Racial Bias in Appraisals

• 2021 Appraisal Subcommittee Roundtable: Building a More Equitable Appraisal System

• 2021 George Dell; Peter Christensen, Attorney: How to Avoid Being Accused of Bias in Real Estate Appraisal

• 2022 Los Angeles Business Journal: Commercial Real Estate Symposium

• Appraisal Institute: Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Webinar Series: Revealing Relevance for the Appraiser Profession
• Robert Keller: Bullet Proof Workfile Class

Selected Media

•  1985 LA Times “People in Westside Real Estate” Cummins joins Merrill Lynch

•  1990 LA Times “People in Westside Real Estate” Cummins joins Westside Properties

•  2002 LA Times “Suggestions for the bidder whose offers are rejected”

•  2006 Daily News “County relaxes restrictions on llamas, animal rehab”

•  2007 LA Times “Historical Homes, not for everyone”

•  2009 LA Weekly “Jimmy Nasralla finds a lawyer”

•  2009 LA Weekly “Is LA City Attorney Trutanich screwing over the little guy?”

•  2009 LA Weekly “Jimmy on the edge of town”

Awards

•  2014 Los Angeles Business Journal, Latino Business Award

•  2014 Los Angeles Business Journal, Women Making a Difference Award

•  2020 GlobeSt. Women of Influence Award

Social Media 

•  1992 Mary Cummins Real Estate website – Includes Real Estate Dictionary

•  2000 Cummins Real Estate blog – Articles on Real Estate, Appraisal, Affordable Housing, Homeless, Housing Crisis, Celebrity Homes

•  2010 Cummins Real Estate Services Facebook page

Task Forces, Committees

•  2006 Los Angeles City Proposition F Committee – Oversaw construction of new animal shelters and fire stations with $500,000,000+ fund

Publications, Articles

•  Main Reasons Home Loans are Denied

•  How Condominium Home Owners Associations (HOA) are Organized and Operate

•  How Real Estate Appraisers Measure and Calculate Size of a Home

•  Race and Racism in Real Estate Appraisal

•  Difficulties Finding a Real Estate Appraiser Mentor in California

•  The History of Redlining in Home Lending

•  How to Submit a Reconsideration of Value, Appeal

•  Understanding the 1004P Hybrid Real Estate Appraisal

•  One Cause of the Housing Crisis

•  Causes of the Increase in Homelessness in Los Angeles

•  Ideas to Help Solve the Housing Crisis

•  Real Estate Cycles, Revitalization and “Gentrification”

•  Notre Dame Cathedral fire shows how building structure affects susceptibility to fires

•  Eminent Domain in California and Texas

•  Donald Trump and the Ambassador Hotel Development Project

•  Using Google Maps to Calculate a Driving Route for Real Estate Appraisers

•  Using Google Maps to Get Rough Estimates of Building Size

•  EB-5 Visa Renewal Program and Real Estate

•  California Bill AB139 - Real Estate Transfers and Trusts

•  Office to Housing Conversion is Not That Easy

•  Appraisal Gap: What is it? What are the Causes?

•  Different Types of Home Valuations

•  Measuring, Describing Land Using Metes and Bounds, PLSS, Lot and Block and Parcel Numbers

Past, Present Organizations, Memberships

•  USC Alumni Real Estate Network, AREN

•  National Association of Real Estate Appraisers, NAREA

•  Beverly Hills Board of Realtors, BHBR, now Beverly Hills/Greater Los Angeles Association of Realtors, GLAR

•  Los Angeles Board of Realtors, LABR, now Beverly Hills/Greater Los Angeles Association of Realtors, GLAR

•  California Association of Realtors, CAR

•  Combined L.A./Westside MLS, CLAW

 Other Experience 

•  Bilingual – English, Spanish

•  PC, Mac, iPad, iPhone

•  UAD, .pdf, .doc, .xml, .env, html, FTP, Power Point, FHA forms

•  Approved by numerous Appraisal Management Companies

•  MLS, Homeputer, a la mode, Total, AppraisalMAT, LoopNet, Carets

•  Real estate photography, panoramas, scans, floor plans

•  E&O insurance $1,000,000/$1,000,000

•  Never had a real estate complaint, claim or lawsuit

•  Perfect appraiser license record

•  Passed full SterlingBackcheck background check multiple times

•  Passed multiple DOJ background checks for professional licenses, gun permit

•  Perfect driving record, type 100+ wpm

Mary Cummins Resume, Curriculum Vitae as pdf

http://www.marycummins.com/marycumminscurriculumvitae.pdf

Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.

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